The Russians may be preparing a new invasion: what is happening in the Russian Grayvoron

What's happening in Russian Grayvoron/Collage 24 Channel/GettyImages

The Institute for the Study of War is convinced that the enemy may launch an offensive towards Bogodukhov and Zolochev in the Kharkov region. Or – along the populated areas of the Sumy highway from the Belgorod region.

This is 24 Channelcommented the head of the Center for Military Legal Research, Alexander Musienko, noting that as for Grayvoron on Russian territory, there has been a concentration of Russian troops there for two weeks. The settlement of Sudzha was also added there, not far from the border, where a greater presence of enemy forces was recorded. Note that analysts are convinced that Russia will not have enough manpower to encircle or capture cities such as Kharkov or Sumy.

“Now it is (the presence of Russian troops – Channel 24 ) is recorded in the Grayvoron area. Over the past week or so, Russian troops have been concentrating there, and there is obviously some activity from there, it is possible that this indicates preparations for an invasion directly on Ukrainian territory,” Musienko suggested. .

Probably, earlier the enemy, when he launched an offensive in the Kharkov region, wanted to attack from Grayvoron towards Bolshaya Pisarevka in the Sumy region. And from there I wanted to move either along the Sumy highway, or through the Kharkov region.

The enemy's plan was to strike in the Kharkov region and spread the offensive from four directions. It is said about the direction towards Liptsov and Volchansk. Also, probably, we are talking about Cossack Lopan, and also either Bogodukhov or Zolochev. Regarding the latter, it is less likely, because the landscape conditions there are difficult, and the positions of the Ukrainian forces are quite fortified.

There is a high probability that the enemy can attack from the Grayvoron area. Why is this needed? There are two options, said the head of the Center for Military Legal Research.

For example, to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from dislodging Russian troops from those places where there are likely to be counterattacks by Ukrainian defenders. It is said about those places where there are still occupiers – the direction of Liptsov and Volchansk.

So the invaders want to stretch the line of defense Ukrainian troops in the Kharkov and Sumy regions, and also to create additional sources of tension so that Ukraine would pull troops there and use its means.

“Operational-strategic intentions and goals of the enemy in at the beginning of the operation in the Kharkov region, most likely, it was that Russia, in case of success, sought to take Kharkov into a semi-encirclement and reach the city or its environs with its artillery, but this did not work out,” noted Alexander Musienko. <. /p>

Russia cannot attack forever

The Ukrainian military is quite effective, organized and coherent set up defenses. The enemy was unable to implement his plans. Russia is now considering penetrating as far into Ukrainian territory as it can. The occupiers want to gain a foothold on certain lines and create a problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. All so that they then look for ways to knock out the enemy.

However, the aggressor country cannot be on an “eternal” offensive. Now the enemy is gathering 10 thousand of his forces in order to increase the “North” group. Military personnel are being brought from all over Russia. At the same time, the invaders understand that sooner or later their offensive will stop.

Now Ukraine can actually prepare to seize the initiative at least at the local and tactical levels, and push the enemy out of temporarily occupied territories if necessary. To prevent this, the Russians will try to unwind Ukrainian reserves.

The occupiers do not want the Ukrainian Armed Forces to accumulate ammunition and resources, and then launch a counterattack at the right moment. This is what they are afraid of. The enemy's plans are taken into account when preparing for defense.

Question in task of the enemy

The number of the new Russian group, the head of the Center for Military Legal Research is convinced, will not differ much from the one that was before. We are talking about about 50 thousand military personnel. This is what the enemy was counting on.

There is also a possibility that the Russians could transfer another 10 thousand of their military from the southern direction – from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporozhye. That is, to complete your group so that it is 50 – 60 thousand.

They rely on such forces. But the question is what planning tasks they set for themselves. If they try to unwind our reserves and pull them just to the North, to the North-East, these forces are enough for them,” Musienko said.

How to force the enemy to retreat deep into Russia

It would be very helpful to prevent the Russians permission from Western partners to hit them with weapons across the territory of Russia. By the way, Western artillery has a greater range and effectiveness. In addition, there are cluster shells that can be used against accumulations of enemy personnel.

For example, the city of Grayvoron in Russia is located 10–15 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. Sudzha is also about the same. So the Ukrainian military could bring up Western-style artillery and hit the enemy with high-precision shells. Then the occupiers would have to retreat from those positions.

“Retreating deeper means disrupting their plans, because the experience of the offensive in the Kharkov region demonstrated that, although they had armored vehicles, they were in smaller numbers. The offensive was actually almost on foot,” added the head of the Center for Military Legal Research.

Russian infantry entered on foot with the support of artillery fire and cabs. Therefore, the invaders certainly would not have been able to enter on foot. The occupiers would have to redeploy their forces inland and create offensive groups further from the border.

This means that in the moment of logistics and transfer of this group to Ukraine, the enemy would stretch into certain columns. They would be noticeable and vulnerable to attacks.

Those forces that could break through to the Kharkov region, for example, they would already be weaker than when they enter, and already here we are forced to meet them with fire on Ukrainian territory,” noted Alexander Musienko.

The Ukrainian army can reach Grayvoron with its artillery . The head of the Center for Military Legal Studies noted that the artillery units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the enemy in some positions when they saw that the enemy was deploying its forces before attacking the Kharkov region. However, it was not so strong, because then there was not enough ammunition yet. They arrived later. Now the situation is much better.

Russia is preparing to attack

• Vladimir Zelensky said that the enemy is preparing for a new offensive. The enemy is gathering another group of troops near the border with Ukraine.
• The occupiers continue to advance in the Kharkov region. At the same time, they keep their troops close to the border with the Sumy region. The State Border Service says that such forces are not enough for a successful offensive. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready for any scenario.
• State Border Guard Service representative Andrey Demchenko suggested that the Russians could do in the Sumy region something similar to what is happening in the Kharkov region. Everything to stretch the strength of the Ukrainian army.
• At the same time, the enemy is building up its group on the border with the Chernihiv region and the rest of the border areas of the Sumy region. The enemy regularly shells the territory of the regions with artillery and tanks. Russian DRGs are also operating. The situation is now under control.