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As far as I understand, the command of the enemy troops has begun the most crucial stage of the Ukrainian offensive – the struggle for time.
Why the enemy clings to Liman
He now needs to gain time to organize and equip new lines and positions where it will be possible in reality and practically to stop the Ukrainian offensive. northeast and northwest of it.
Two days ago, it was known that the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to force not only the Seversky Donets “from the south” and start battles for Liman, but also Oskol. Therefore, it was clear that if the enemy decides to “defend along the Oskol” in the future, then he will have to “reconcile” with at least 2-3 bridgeheads of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on its left bank and constant “pressure from the south”.
In essence, this and determined the nature and circumstances of the decisions of the command of the enemy troops regarding the “gathering of all the dead units” and its desire to organize a new line of defense.
The remnants of the Izyum grouping
In this context, it is worth noting that the enemy does not yet have a continuous defensive line east of Oskol, however, the enemy already has its first “embryos” in the form of at least 2 positional areas, where the remnants of the Izyum grouping are gradually crawling away … < /p>
First – the area of Nizhnyaya Duvanka – Naugolnoe – Kuzemovka – Svatovo (up to 2 armored personnel carriers are recorded, which are quite actively digging in, probably from the 41st OVA units). The second one is south of Svatovoe (it is deployed along the Milovatka-Krasnorechenskoye line, most likely – part of the forces of the 41st OVA and the remnants of the 2nd BTGr of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th OVA and up to 1.5 BTGr of the 1st Guards Tank Army).
Also, everything that is no longer able to participate in high-intensity battles and, from the point of view of combat readiness, looks, to put it mildly, “problematic”, independently rushes and gradually creeps through Novoe and Makeevka to the north towards Svatovoe.
In fact, over the past 2 days, Svatovo has turned into a kind of “assembly point” of all that remains of the Raisin group.
Separately, it should be noted the tactical grouping of the enemy, which the enemy command is now essentially sacrificing in favor of pulling its main forces away from Izyum. Yes, I mean up to 2.5 armored personnel carriers of the 2nd OVA, which hold back the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the Liman and to the east of it, in order to give their command time to organize the same “defense line along Oskol” (I say, they constantly have plans and orders are late in relation to the nature and speed of the development of the real situation).
The barrier of fear
All this does not happen by accident. In particular, why exactly Svatovo? It is obvious that the liberation of the Armed Forces of this town will destroy the entire “under-created” hypothetical enemy defense system in the northern Lugansk region (and possibly everything that is located in the direction of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk inclusive).
Just because the road from Urazovo to Severodonetsk will be cut, and the kats will have to carry all their tatters in a circle, through Starobelsk, or even through Novy Aidar. This is, firstly, and secondly, the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Svatovo will make the enemy’s defense in the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk area generally, let’s say, quite costly for the enemy.
And then, controlling the Svatovoye area itself, the enemy will or otherwise, it can affect a considerable segment of the territory along the left bank of the Oskol, including the bridgeheads of our troops (unless, of course, they still exist, and the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not returned back to the right bank).
Does the enemy understand this? Yes, and not only understands, but is already taking quite concrete steps to keep Svatovo and the surrounding areas. For example, two days ago our group spotted on the march west of Starobelsk a certain “mini” BTGr – 12 infantry fighting vehicles, 5 tanks and two MT-LBs heading west (obviously towards Svatovoe). It is quite possible – one of the “unrestored” armored personnel carriers of the 41st OVA.
According to so far unverified data, east of the R-66 road, south of Svatovoye, not only enemy artillery was observed (for example, a firing platoon of 122-mm MLRS BM-21 “Grad” on the march and 4 122-mm self-propelled guns 2S1 “Gvozdika”), but and the arrangement of the actual firing positions. The enemy is clearly either pulling the remnants of his artillery here from the south and south-west, or is preparing for the arrival of “additional guns” here.
On the other hand, holding Pokrovsky and Troitsky by the enemy in this context is also important, because they are also located on this road. However, the advantage of Svatovoy over them lies in the fact that his, so to speak, “influence on the general situation”, that is, on everything that is located east of Oskol and south of it, is more “universal” than those of these villages. In fact, Svatovo is a kind of “gateway” from the west to the entire north of the Luhansk region.
The last hopes of the occupiers
Now, about the prospects of “calling” into Severodonetsk and Lysichansk directly from the west and the north itself . Personally, in my opinion, it looks quite contradictory today. I'll explain why.
At least 4 armored personnel carriers are concentrated along the Belogorovka-Verkhnekamenka line, mainly from the “mobile reserve”, PMC “Wagner” and units of the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 90th Panzer Division.
After the start of the Ukrainian offensive, part of the forces and means from this grouping, the enemy was forced to stretch to the north. Which, for its part, led to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine got the opportunity in certain areas (of course, I will not say which ones) to counterattack already in the direction from Seversky. As a result, some, let's say, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ended up on the left bank of the Seversky Donets, south of Kremennaya.
But we must understand that this movement in itself is unlikely to lead to the fact that the enemy will leave the Severodonetsk region , simply because it would mean a repeat of the situation with the northeast “corner” in the Kharkiv region. Only this time in Luhansk.
Thus, the districts of Svatovo and Rubizhne-Severodonetsk are, in fact, the key “nodes” of the future or, better to say, hypothetical defense system enemy in the northern part of the Lugansk region. And, of course, the enemy is unlikely to leave them just like that.
