< p _ngcontent-sc89="" class="news-annotation">Parliamentary elections are held in Italy on September 25th. The Italians are trying to get out of the political crisis caused by the resignation of Mario Draghi, but this process is becoming rather dubious. The entire European Union is concerned about whether the new Italian government will deal a blow to European unity, against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine and the energy crisis in Europe.
According to polls, Italy's right-wing coalition has the best chances of winning: Brothers Italia of Giorgia Meloni, Liga Matteo Salvini and Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi. All three parties in their rhetoric use anti-migrant policies, LGBT criticism, Euroscepticism and, to put it mildly, a moderate view of relations with Putin's Russia.
The government of Mario Draghi was the main engine of support for Ukraine from Italy, which at first even became surprise for the Ukrainian leadership. Italy has become one of the loudest voices in the European Union for Ukraine's entry into the bloc.
At the same time, it was Draghi who began to actively promote the Ukrainian vision of a future peace agreement, despite the threats and whims of Moscow. However, both Kyiv and Brussels are worried that Italy's policy may take a sharp turn towards Russia. >The headliner of the coalition and the main contender for the premiership is the charismatic leader of the Brothers of Italy, Georgia Meloni. She built her career on a rather aggressive rhetoric against EU interference in the affairs of member states, and also criticized Brussels for political and financial pressure on Hungary and Poland.
Georgia Meloni from a young age took part in political far-right movements, in particular the “Italian Social Movement”. Even then, speaking at student debates, they felt the power of populist appeals and ideas. Later, having developed his abilities, Meloni managed to get a position as a municipal deputy in Rome, and subsequently become the youngest minister in Italy. In 2008, when Meloni was only 31 years old, the then Prime Minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, appointed her to head the Ministry of Youth and Sports.
Already in 2012, Georgia Meloni created his own party, the Brothers of Italy, which had previously been an outsider and won only 4% of the vote in the 2018 elections. However, subsequently Meloni will begin to use this fact in her favor, reproaching voters that her party did not take part in any power coalition and aims to change Italy's course for the better. Thus, she managed to become a leader and the “Brothers of Italy” today have the greatest support of all parties – 25%.
Interesting!Meloni's rhetoric was not too different from far-right politicians in other European countries. She is often compared to Marine Le Pen and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. She also advocates weakening the influence of Brussels, criticizes LGBT people and abortion permits, and generally takes a very conservative position. The European Union is worried that the far-right Meloni, at the head of Europe's third economy, could undermine European unity, which will play into the hands of Putin and his aggressive policies and blackmail. moscow. However, after the start of a full-scale war, Meloni changed this direction. The “Brothers of Italy” became one of the few parties that supported the decision of the Draghi government to supply weapons to Ukraine. Subsequently, Meloni went even further, she compared the independence of Ukraine with the independence of Italy and stated that the Russian invasion has a global context, and support for Ukraine is an integral part of European security.
Putin's friend Berlusconi rushes to power again
Despite the declared support for Ukraine by the Brothers of Italy, the same cannot be said about their coalition partners. Silvio Berlusconi, former mentor of Meloni and leader of Forza Italia with 7% support, a longtime friend of Putin. Berlusconi is known for continuing to advocate friendship with Russia even after the end of his premiership.
In 2013, Berlusconi said that Putin is the best politician in the world, and Russia was supposedly lucky to have such a leader. Subsequently, the former Italian prime minister actually became persona non grata in Ukraine and received a three-year entry ban when he visited the occupied Crimea. In general, Berlusconi has always been an opponent of sanctions against Russia for the occupation of Crimea and advocated a rapprochement between the EU and the Kremlin.
After the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Berlusconi tried to mimic the pan-European trend of supporting Ukraine and said he was disappointed with Putin's actions. However, a month later he broke down and began to demand from Europe to force Ukraine to fulfill Putin's predatory whims.
Even later, he finally tore off the mask and said that Putin, with his invasion, was only trying to replace the government of Vladimir Zelensky with some “decent people”, but he faced opposition from the Ukrainian army, which the West “pumped up” with various weapons. Zelensky's press secretary Sergei Nikiforov was surprised at Berlusconi's confidence in Putin.
Allegedly killing political opponents, sending an army of murderers and rapists to a foreign country, and threatening nuclear war define a “decent person” for Berlusconi. Silvio Berlusconi is Putin's chief ambassador to Italy, and his participation in the future power coalition is of considerable concern to the European Union.
The main Italian populist is also in the leadership team
Third in the right-wing coalition is Matteo Salvini, leader of the populist League party, which has a rating of 13%. Salvini is already literally a fan of Putin – he came to the meeting of the European Parliament on a T-shirt with the image of the Russian dictator and now opposes the supply of weapons to Ukraine. After the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he tried to disown his past tricks, arguing that after the start of the war, his eyes were opened to the aggressive war of Russia, which he allegedly did not expect and allegedly does not support.
Subsequently, he even tried to promote Ukrainian refugees and offered shelter in several party offices. However, few people believed his sincerity, which is why he was dubbed a clown.
Salvini is in favor of changing the sanctions policy against Russia. He motivates this by the fact that Italy receives a lot of losses due to sanctions against Moscow, so if the restrictions are not lifted, they definitely need to be reviewed. He argues that Europe should skip Russian energy sources in order to avoid a coming crisis, because allegedly they are still not able to force Russia to end the war.
How Russia is trying to influence the results elections
Two weeks before the Italian elections, the US revealed the details of a high-profile investigation into Russia's covert funding of Western politicians. US intelligence has found that the Kremlin has allocated $300 million to influence Western politicians to ease sanctions.
The US released this data at the very moment when one of Georgia Meloni's closest advisers, Adolfo Urso, arrived on a visit to Washington. Urso had visited Kyiv two days earlier, where he met Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and assured him of Ukraine's unwavering support along with Western allies in the EU and NATO. Urso confirmed the same statements in Washington, noting the importance of containing China and countering Russian influence.
In general, the United States positively and with confidence assessed the “Brothers of Italy”, which can win the elections. During a personal communication with Urso, the famous American diplomat Kurt Volker even handed him a note, where he stated that he was confident in the loyalty of the “Brothers of Italy” to NATO, support for Ukraine and EU sanctions against Russia.
Combining approval and hints of possible corruption among party members in Urso's visit, the US not only supported Meloni's future government, but also warned them against toxic ties to the Kremlin in the future, especially against the backdrop of Russophile statements from Berlusconi and Salvini.
Are there any chances to defeat the rightists
Opposing the Italian right is a center-left coalition led by Enrico Letti's Democratic Party. Letta was already Prime Minister of Italy and is pushing for a pro-European agenda and a continuation of Mario Draghi's policies. With them, the coalition also includes small parties: “Europe +”, “Italian Left” and “Green and Left Alliance”. In general, these four political forces have 25% of support and are significantly behind the coalition of the right.
At the same time, the Five Star Movement is participating in the election campaign. They act as an independent force with 13% support. It is a centrist group led by former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and MEP Carlo Calenda. The Five Star Movement is also partly to blame for the collapse of the Mario Draghi government coalition and the political crisis in Italy, which led to snap elections.
Although the current party ratings are just a preliminary poll, the alignment of forces may change after the vote, most analysts nevertheless came to the conclusion that the Democrats will not be able to win without a powerful and broad coalition.
Brussels does not trust right-wing governments
But the right-wingers did not have time to come to power, as they already had a conflict with Brussels. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, even threatened that if there were problems with the new Italian government, the EU would find the necessary leverage, referring to a 222 billion euro post-COVID aid package for Italy.
The right-wing coalition was outraged by this statement and immediately accused Brussels of interfering in democratic processes in Italy. In particular, it is precisely on such financial pressure that the Italian right insists in its criticism of the European Union. Earlier, due to problems with democracy, the EU blocked an aid package for Hungary.
The right will gnaw at each other
As for Ukraine, unlike the coalition of democrats, the Italian right does not have a unanimous opinion regarding the support of our country and opposition to Russia. Even if we believe that Georgia Meloni really takes a pro-Ukrainian position and will continue to do so even after the victory, as prime minister she will have to compromise with her coalition partners, who showed their faces on the eve of the elections.
Meloni is unlikely whether he wants to immediately go into conflict with Berlusconi and Salvini, because this could lead to the collapse of the coalition and Italy's plunge into another political crisis.
Farewell support for the Draghi government
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Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini visited Ukraine on the eve of the elections, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov. At these meetings, Guerini assured that Italy's support for Ukraine would be unshakable, no matter what the outcome of the elections.
Moreover, the head of the Italian Ministry of Defense noted precisely the military support of Ukraine, because, in his opinion, it was the supply of weapons from the West will be able to prove to Putin the failure of his adventure.
Combined with the visit of Adolfo Urso to Kyiv and Washington, this gives hope that Russophilia in the Italian politicum will not become an advanced force, at least in the beginning work of the new government. Italy, by inertia, will continue to support Ukraine at all levels, from political to military.
At the same time, it should be expected that the Italian right, although they will not be able to completely destroy support for Ukraine, it will most likely have less volumes, and loud calls for negotiations with Putin will be on the agenda in Italian foreign policy.
What Italians think about the elections and support for Ukraine: watch the video on Channel 24
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