Ukraine continues to courageously resist Russian aggression. In the world, analysts and experts continue to ponder how the war unleashed against us by Russia will end.
No one doubts that Ukraine will definitely win this war. But the experts fled in thoughts about how it would be and when.
5 scenarios for the end of the war
So, let's go through 5 scenarios for the end of a full-scale war that Russia unleashed on February 24, 2022. We emphasize that these are only forecasts. It is difficult to predict 100% what the real combat operations will be like.
1. Russia's spring offensive will be key
Michael Clark, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, adheres to this thesis. He drew parallels between the wars of Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin. The analyst notes that they all needed to somehow survive the winter. This is what Putin expects.
He noted that it would be appropriate for both sides to take a break. But if it does not exist, then we should not forget that the Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated.And they can also continue the offensive in the Donbass.
Putin can only rely on the spring. The dictator from the Kremlin has previously stated that about 50,000 “mobiles” are already at the front. Instead,another 250,000 are being trainedto go to war next year.
Whatever the case, Putin has made it clear he won't stop, Clark notes. At the same time, Ukraine has also demonstrated that it will continue to fight for its life.
2. Ukraine will win back its territories
Andrey Piontkovsky, a scientist and analyst from Washington, is sure of this. In his opinion, Ukraine will be able to win and fully restore its territorial integrity no later than the spring of 2023. This is influenced by two factors at once.
The first isunprecedented in the modern history of the war motivation. In addition, he noted the determination and courage of the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people.
< p>Second, the West has finally matured and realized the magnitude of the historical challenge it had to face. And best of all, according to Piontkovsky, this was illustrated by a relatively recent statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The price we pay is money. And the price Ukrainians pay is blood. If authoritarian regimes see that strength is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price. And the world will become more dangerous for all of us,” he stressed.
According to the analyst,Melitopol can become a key point of hostilities.The liberation of the city allows you to get to the Sea of Azov. This means cutting off supplies and communications with Crimea.
3. The end is still far away
This opinion was expressed by Barbara Zanchetta from the Department of War Studies at King's College London. She emphasized thatwinter will be hard.And that the Russians will continue to attack Ukrainian infrastructure in order to break the morale and endurance of the Ukrainians. At the same time, she is convinced, this will not break us. But it will be necessary to understand that the war itself may drag on.
She noted thatthe prospects for the negotiation process are bleak.And in order to start this process, one side will have to change its basic requirements. And, in her opinion, such dynamics are not observed in the near future.
At the same time, she stressed thatUkraine will certainly win if the West firmly supports it. Even though it understands how expensive the war will be. We are facing a “long-term political, economic and military battle of resolve,” she said. And the war itself, she suggests, will last until the end of 2023.
4. Only defeat awaits Russia
Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, emphasized. He noted that it is too early to plan the Victory Parade in Kyiv. At the same time, the dynamics indicate that Ukraine will prevail, probably in 2023.
Hodges added thatwar is a test of will and logistics.This is a lesson from history to remember.
When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapid improvement in the logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other result than the defeat of Russia, he stressed.
According to Hodges,at the end of 2023, Crimea will return under the control of Ukraine. At the same time, he suggested, a certain arrangement would be in place. It will provide for the gradual curtailment of the Russian naval presence in Sevastopol. And this process may continue until 2025.
5. The war of attrition will continue
This opinion was expressed by David Gendelman, a military expert from Israel. He stressed that about half of the 300,000 “mobiles” are in the combat zone. The rest, together with the forces released after the retreat from Kherson, remained. And this numberis enough to launch a new offensive.
He is convinced that the continuation of the current tactics of the enemy is likely. We are talking about the slow grinding of Ukrainian forces in narrow directions, as well as slow progress. As in the area of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Perhaps this tactic is also used in the Svatovo-Kremennaya area.
Constant attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on the Ukrainian rear will complete this strategy of war of attrition,, he stressed.
According to the analyst, the southern direction. We are talking about Melitopol and Berdyansk. If they can be brought back under control, this will cut the mainland corridor to the Crimea. It would be, he is convinced, a great Ukrainian victory.
He also noted that everythingdepended on “the schedule lying on General Zaluzhny's desk”.And that if the silt freezes, we we get an answer to this question. And then it will be clearer how it will end.
We have no doubt that everything will end with the victory of Ukraine. The same opinion is shared by our international partners. We do not know which of the scenarios will come true. But we know that now more than ever it is necessary to help our defenders. Remember that there are no donations too big or too small. Each hryvnia brings us closer to victory.
