Russia no longer has the strength to attack in Transnistria/Kremlin website
US National Intelligence said that Vladimir Putin, due to failures in Ukraine, would probably declare martial law in Russia and unleash a war on the occupied territory of Moldova – in Transnistria.
About whether Putin will be able to achieve any success in the event of an invasion of Moldova and how this will affect the situation in Ukraine – the Channel 24 website learned from experts.
Moscow wants to scare Europe
Mykola Volkovsky, President of the First International Development Fund of Ukraine and Artem Oliynyk, President of IASPN Ukraine, said that in this situation, a few points should be highlighted.
- First of all, Russian special services, which were generously funded by Russia, now must obey the order to “go out of their way” to prove the result of the resources spent on them.
These intelligence networks operate throughout Europe, and from aggravation in Moldova really will not be won. Now there is a limited group of Russians there (although one of the largest ammunition depots in the region), the rotation/accumulation of forces is difficult, Ukraine is ready to defend its territories.
Moscow is seeking to make a trump card that will scare Europe with the specter of the 1990s – the restoration of the hot phase in the Balkans. It is safe to say that this is exactly what is being staked on – to scare the continent with a chain of instability that will spread to EU/NATO members. After all, then activation will immediately begin in Bosnia, pressure will increase on the border with Kosovo – all that we do not need. Since attention will be diverted from us in favor of a wide palette of challenges, the experts noted.
- Secondly, attention should be paid to the recent rotation of the regional elite in Russia. This trend (correcting mistakes) will continue because Russia wants to systematically approach the long war in Ukraine and establish both internal calm and the organization of “expeditionary forces” in Ukraine after the defeat of numerous groups and disproportionate human losses.
As for the introduction of martial law, this will be more relevant to the border regions, if a decision is made. But don't expect this to happen anytime soon – resources are currently limited to propagate confrontation.
Experts say that the Russian army in Transnistria is not combat-ready/Photo by Getty Images Ukraine. Destabilization of the situation there is possible, but the conditions are very different from ours: the Kremlin will not announce a second special operation, there are few forces in Pridnestrovie, and neighboring countries can really help to take measures to neutralize the threat, if any, the experts noted.
They noted that the strategic goal in the Black Sea region is our cities on the sea: Odessa, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov and others. The question of whether the involvement of forces in Transnistria will help increase the threat (or even start a blockade) of our cities is a difficult one, because the infrastructure for defense in the South exists and it demonstrates effectiveness.
The supply of Western weapons means that it is possible to stop the forces. It is more difficult to talk about the south of the Odessa region – there really can be problems, but this will really be a signal to Chisinau that the time has come.
Putin's political end
Maxim Dzhigun, political scientist and analyst, expert on socio-political issues, partner of the consulting company Good Politics noted that Pridnestrovie is an interesting region. Despite the presence of regular Russian troops there, this is a piece of Moldovan territory, to which Russia does not have a single approach. That is, this is a territory that, on the one hand, has a border with Ukraine, and on the other, with Moldova. Therefore, despite all the loud statements about the possible start of the operation, we can say that it is unlikely that it will be successful for Russia.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, there are about 1,300 military personnel there, most of whom are guarding warehouses and demonstrating their influence in the region. But they definitely do not have the potential to attack and succeed against Ukraine. Another thing is that Pridnestrovie, as such a piece of medieval, undeveloped Russia, poses a political threat, and first of all for Moldova and Romania. This is a tool for Putin to demonstrate his ability to destabilize the situation in Eastern Europe and blackmail Europe as a whole. – Dzhigun noted.
He added that with regard to a possible offensive from the territory of Pridnestrovie to Moldova, such a threat exists. However, there are doubts that with a grouping of 1,300 soldiers, it is possible to create a serious threat to the occupation of the whole of Moldova. But the threat of destabilization in Moldova exists – Transnistria has long been a problem for Moldova.
Russia is again trying to blackmail Europe/Photo by Getty Images
I am more than convinced that Putin is another attempt at blackmail and a demonstration of the power that he supposedly has. This is a message for the same Romania, the countries of NATO and the EU, that they may have problems. As for me, the possible start of an operation in an additional operational direction such as Transnistria, Putin only accelerates his political death, and this process will be even faster, and he will not receive global results in this direction, – the expert added.
Back to news , it is not at all difficult for Moscow to win in Moldova, because Moldova practically does not have a combat-ready army, and will not be able to withstand the more numerous troops of Russia, and the so-called. PMR, which are located on the territory of the unrecognized Transnistria.
However, there is an important nuance here – the Russian units in Transnistria, and even more so the armed forces of the Transnistrian separatists controlled by the Russians, are also incapable of combat, and, most importantly, they are cut off from supplies from Russia. At the same time, Moldova may request assistance from neighboring Romania and Ukraine, which will deal with this threat very quickly. If this happens, if Russia is drawn into an armed conflict with Moldova, and everything happens according to my forecasts, Ukraine will be able to release more resources for defense in the east and south as a result, because today we are forced to keep a certain number of troops on the border with Transnistria,” Sinchenko explained .
In his opinion, the direct participation of third countries in the war with Russia will help increase assistance to Ukraine, which means it will accelerate our victory.
Eugene Savisko, an expert of the public movement “All Together!”, explained that in order to capture Moldova, Putin first needs to capture the island of the Snake. It is this island that controls the Danube Delta and a significant part of the Black Sea, primarily the coasts of Ukraine, Moldova and Romania.
The deployment of a stationary air defense system on it will also allow control of the airspace. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are so actively and systematically destroying the enemy on Snake Island. Without a base on it, the army of invaders can do little against both Ukraine and Moldova.
If Putin's troops launch an offensive against the Moldovan army with the available forces of the Transnistrian group, then fate Moldova will depend on the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If official Chisinau asks for help, our army is ready to launch an offensive and defeat this group of Putin's troops. If, by some miracle, the enemy manages to transfer to the so-called. the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic additional human resources and equipment, then the situation may become much more complicated. Since then the enemy will be able to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south from several sides at the same time,” Savisko added.
