The situation in the Luhansk region/Getty Images
Russian invaders will focus on the battle for Severodonetsk. They seem to be planning to capture only the Luhansk region, and leave the Donbass.
This was reported at the Institute for the Study of War on May 16. US think tank researchers say their analysis is similar to that of Sergei Gaidai.
Russian forces have likely abandoned their goal of completing a large-scale cordon of Ukrainian units from Donetsk to Izyum in favor of completing the capture of the Lugansk region, writes ISW.
Earlier, the head of the Lugansk Regional State Administration, Sergei Gaidai, noted that the Russians understand that they will not be able to capture the Donetsk region. Therefore, they are trying to reach the administrative borders of the Lugansk region.
The Institute for the Study of War says that the Russian command is likely to give priority to the battle for Severodonetsk in the future. After all, the occupiers continue to coordinate efforts to capture Severodonetsk from the north and south, which will result in less encirclement of Ukrainian troops than initially expected.
Russian unsuccessful attempts to cross the Seversky Donets River near Kremennaya may shift Russian encirclement operations further east , closer to Severodonetsk through Rubizhnoye. The expected encirclement, if it occurs, will be less extensive.
Russian troops are also moving less into Slavyansk from Izyum. This may be due to the slow pace of the offensive operation there.
According to ISW, the Russian troops may have run out of combat-ready reservists. This forces the Russian military command to combine soldiers from private military companies into supposedly regular army units and marines.
