The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that the return of Ukrainian refugees who left the country because of the war should not be expected before 2026.
This is stated in the Inflation Report of the National Bank for July 2024.
The return of refugees to Ukraine is delayed: what is the reason
As noted in the report, in 2024-2025, a further outflow of migrants abroad is expected (about 400 and 300 thousand people).
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The corresponding forecast of the National Bank has worsened compared to the April Inflation Report, in particular due to significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, accompanied by long-term power outages and increasing risks for the heating season.
In addition, frequent shutdowns negatively affect production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand for labor. And this will accordingly further stimulate migration.
Migration will also be caused by the slow normalization of economic conditions due to high security risks.
How and when Ukrainians will start returning from abroad
The full-fledged return of migrants to Ukraine is expected to begin in 2026.
However, the return will be gradual (about 400 thousand people), since due to the long duration of stay abroad, adaptation in a new place will increase.
Meanwhile, conditions in Ukraine, in particular due to power outages, will be more difficult than expected earlier.
According to the NBU report, the number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant, because, according to surveys, a significant portion of them have nowhere to return to due to the destruction as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation.
So, now the negative risks of an even greater outflow of migrants abroad, their smaller and later return prevail.
