The Ukrainian General Staff, military and Western analysts agree that rainy weather on the still unfrozen front will somewhat slow down the fighting, but will not stop it. However, both the Defense Forces and the Russian military continue to maneuver in all directions.
Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that due to bad weather – fog, rain – there are difficulties in using drones, in particular reconnaissance aircraft to adjust artillery fire.
Military expert Petr Chernik, in a commentary to ICTV Facts, said that last winter the Armed Forces of Ukraine fought without as many drones as they do now.
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Counter-battery combat
The main tactics will be counter-battery combat, or artillery duels.
— Classic artillery reconnaissance. A group of specially trained people comes as close as possible to the enemy’s positions, sees him, transmits the coordinates by radio and gives the command: Fire! – says Peter Chernik.
For counter-battery warfare, the Defense Forces have a lot of Western equipment, these are: American HIMARS, German Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery mounts, American M777 howitzers, FH70 howitzers, M109 artillery mounts, Polish AHS Krab self-propelled howitzers, French Caesar artillery mounts and the like.
We also have modern German Leopard 2A and British Challenger tanks, Bradley and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. The United States also transferred its M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Note that Western artillery has high accuracy, it is long-range and compatible with various types of correction equipment.
By the way, the expert is also of the opinion that there will be no fundamental changes in the intensity of fighting at the front due to wet weather.
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We've already gone through one winter. Then the demarcation line shrank somewhat, especially in the southern bridgehead (Kherson and Zaporozhye regions), where half of the line of Surovikin (Russian general, ex-commander of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine) passed. This winter, nothing will change – all advance will be in artillery mode, the military man says.
Will Russians freeze at the front?
Last winter, Russian soldiers were very cold at the front; there were far from isolated cases of amputation of frostbitten limbs. And all because the occupiers did not have winter shoes, clothing, or heating equipment.
According to Peter Chernik, little will change this winter, because the Russians will not be able to give something better than they already have. So they will continue to freeze.
Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Mikhail Samus believes that this year the situation with the equipment of the occupiers will have a certain improvement, but not for everyone – everything will depend on the type of troops and the category of units.
— For example, the equipment of the prisoners from Storm-Z is unlikely to be the same as that of the paratroopers. In general, I think there is an improvement, but it is very different and in different troops,” the expert noted.
The arrival of persistent frosts will change the situation: heavy equipment will be able to travel faster on the ground, and therefore the fighting will intensify.
Temperatures will mostly be above zero this week. Rain and sleet are forecast in Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk and southern regions. Although there will be frosts at night, they will be insignificant, and in some places during the day they will reach +10°C. Both the Russians and Ukrainians are unlikely to stop offensive operations.
What is the situation at the front?
The representative of the Tauride group of Ukrainian troops, Colonel Alexander Shtupun, said that the occupiers have significantly intensified their assaults near Avdeevka, Donetsk region. In this area over the past 24 hours, the number of shellings has increased by 25-30%.
The occupiers tried to attack with a dozen armored vehicles in the Avdeevsky direction, but our Defense Forces repelled the assault, destroying two tanks and seven armored combat vehicles.
Russian troops are trying to restore positions west of Staromayorsky, Donetsk region, but unsuccessfully. Also, the occupiers are not giving up attempts to advance in the area of the village of Urozhainoye.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson region: they are entrenched in Krynki (30 km northeast of Kherson and 2 km from the Dnieper River). Ukrainian forces are also holding positions and attacking near Poyma (12 km east of Kherson), Peschanivka (13 km east of Kherson), Podstepne (17 km east of Kherson). Our units are present near the Antonovsky road and railway bridges.
On November 22, the Russians continued their assaults on the left bank of the Kherson region, but were unsuccessful.
According to experts, in winter the Russians will mainly fight on the defensive, and there are unlikely to be any large-scale offensives. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue their advance in the Zaporozhye, Kherson and Donetsk directions.
In October, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are provided with everything necessary for counter-offensives in the winter.
