Lukashenko will not drag Belarus into direct participation in the war/Russian media
Belarus will most likely not take a direct part in the war against Ukraine. However, the state will continue to help Russia kill Ukrainians.
Lukashenko fears for his regime
The Kremlin is putting pressure on the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Russia is probably demanding that Belarus join the war.
To show Vladimir Putin at least nominal support, Lukashenka allows Russian air forces to use Belarusian airspace. Most likely, the politician will continue to allow them to do this.
At the same time, the likelihood of Belarus' direct participation in the war against Ukraine remains low. According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, Lukashenka fears that this will affect the stability of his regime in the country.
Latest news about the threat from Belarus
- Founder of the Belarusian telegram channel “Belarusian Gayun,” Anton Motolko said that Russian cargo aircraft have been actively arriving in the country in recent days. Including the An-124, which makes it possible to transport powerful missiles of the Tochka-U type, and then move them to the temporarily occupied territories. Motolko is convinced that missile strikes against Ukraine should be expected in the near future.
- On July 7, the Lukashenka regime once again extended the duration of military exercises in the border areas. This time – until July 16.
- The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine believes that the enemy will continue demonstrative actions in the Brest and Gomel regions. There is also a high threat of Russian provocations against Belarusian facilities and accusations in Ukraine. At the same time, the likelihood of an independent invasion of the Belarusian countries into Ukraine is unlikely.
