Any agreements on territorial concessions are just another pause, the expert believes/Channel 24 website collage
The other day, the Russian president hinted that he was the successor to the predatory traditions of Emperor Peter I. the capture of “primordially Russian territories” that, after the collapse of the USSR, found themselves outside the boundaries of the new Russian empire.
Should we pay attention to the rotation of “cadres” in the temporarily occupied territories of the East, what the Kremlin will do with the occupied Ukrainian territories in the near future, how the Russians want to legalize the annexation of part of Zaporozhye and the Kherson region, and whether the Ukrainian South will become a bargaining chip in Moscow's bidding for ORDLO – exclusively Michal Marek, founder of the Center for Research on the Modern Security Environment (Krakow, Poland) told Channel 24 website.
Change of horses in the East
What does the rotation of “personnel” in ORDLO testify to?
I would not pay much attention to such personnel changes. Everyone understands that pseudo-republics are a structure, in fact, absolutely controlled by Russia. And these changes show that the Kremlin is dissatisfied with the pace and determination to implement decisions dictated by its puppets in Donetsk and Lugansk.
It is also impossible not to notice that in this rotation there is a significant proportion of pure PR. Russia is trying to mask its failures with the unsuccessful actions of the occupation leadership, which is being prepared to be replaced by new Gauleiters. Thus, Putin wants to reduce the degree of social tension, which is beginning to grow in the occupied territories of the Ukrainian Donbas. as proclaimed by the occupying authorities.
In addition, this rotational process is a common practice that has been preserved in Russian management culture since Soviet times. They simply exchange one for another, so that later they can say that the previous ones were ineffective, and these new ones will definitely be better.
Putin really wants to unite the occupied territories of mainland Ukraine into one federal district with Crimea?
There are several possible scenarios on the basis of which the Russians will “officially” include part of the occupied territories in Russia. One of the options is the creation of a territorial unit called “Tavricheskaya province”. Only in a new way.
So far, it looks like they have a huge problem in organizing and holding a pseudo-referendum. They are in no way able to establish full control over the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Despite this, they still need to feed their citizens at least some success. What managed, in spite of everything, to expand Russian possessions.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian occupiers are trying to implement a survey in the South of Ukraine in order to make a decision on joining on the basis of this falsified sociology. At the same time, referring to the fact that the inhabitants of the southern regions supposedly really want just such a development of events.
Obviously, this option with a referendum stalled for them. Russia understands that its implementation will cause many problems. Like the same mass protests. It may even come to a situation where it will be necessary to use military weapons against recalcitrant Ukrainians in the occupied lands. In order to avoid this undesirable scenario, they are looking for some alternative ways to achieve their goal.
First of all, the aggressor considers this option exclusively for the occupied parts of the territories of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. And this will not affect the occupied Donbass at this stage.
The Russians will decide its fate after the attempt to incorporate the South, on which they will concentrate all their efforts in the near future. Provided that they manage to reach the borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine.
Russia's plans for the South of Ukraine
Why is the poll in the South a priority for Russia? After all, the so-called referendum can also be easily falsified if desired.
The survey can be completely fabricated without any proof. And if there is a referendum, then it will be visible to everyone here, even if Russian propaganda tries to present the voting process as a rush, they say, look at the queues of people who want to vote. Just crowds of people. Then this can and will be done for the picture in the media.
While in the field, people will see for themselves that the situation is radically different. Consequently, this will only increase distrust of the Russian propaganda machine.
When it comes to the results of a fictitious survey, there is no direct evidence of the artificial origin of the results. This is very difficult to prove. When the results of this kind of plebiscite are announced, there will usually be protests, but not on such a scale that threatens Russia, as in the case of a quasi-referendum. as it would be done during an illegal referendum.
However, they may not decide on this either. Instead, continue searching for even more acceptable alternatives, says the expert/Photo courtesy of the speaker
New Kremlin narratives
The other day, the speaker of the Russian leader, Peskov, said that they are not considering the possibility of including our southern territories in the Russian Federation there in the Kremlin. Is this a hint at political bargaining on the Russian side? Like, we'll only leave your South if you give up your East?
They might be trying to bargain like this. Still, I don't think anything like that will actually happen. What Russia has already seized, she will no longer want to give it away voluntarily.
The only real bargaining option they have may be in the format “let's leave everything as it is now.” Remember that any agreements with the Russian Federation on territorial concessions are just another pause, after which a new war will await us.
A few days ago, the Russian leader hinted that he was supposedly a reborn tsar Peter I. What do you think this tells us? Keeping in mind the recent words of Medinsky that the Russian territory will increase in the near future.
More and more, Russians are moving away from narratives that they are delivering liberation from fictional fascism in Ukraine. This rhetoric is being replaced by the position that they go “in their own way.” Like, this is “Russian land and everything must be taken, because we are a great empire.” Therefore, we will take Ukraine, then Lithuania and Poland”.
Putin imagines himself Peter I/Photo by Getty Images
This change in narratives is explained by that they need to present aggression against Ukraine under a more attractive sauce for Russians. Around the slogans about the fight against mythical Nazism or fascism, it doesn’t work out so much to rally society around. The Kremlin now needs a consolidated society, ready to go to war if necessary. But I still I don't think that will work either.
