The Kremlin's plans to attack one of the NATO countries are increasingly being discussed in high offices and among experts. And the leaders of the military bloc countries in a joint communiqué acknowledged Russia as a long-term threat.
Therefore, those who do not believe that the boot of a Russian soldier will finally set foot on the territory of a European NATO member are becoming fewer and fewer. But who and how exactly could start a new wave of Russian aggression — read on further.
Which countries are most at risk from Russia?
The Estonian army is training at a rapid pace: in the last few years, the country has begun to pay much more attention to its own defense. But even by European standards, the Estonian army is one of the smallest on the continent. And this is despite the fact that its neighbor is Russia.
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If we talk about Moldova and Romania, the unrecognized pro-Russian Transnistrian Republic could become a springboard for aggression. The ground operation will be supported by combat aircraft from Crimean airfields and the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Novorossiysk.
But another direction is considered more threatening – from the Belarusian border. Along the so-called Suwalki corridor.
This is the shortest route between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. The distance is only 65 kilometers. Moreover, the offensive can occur simultaneously – from the south and north. As a result, Russian troops can separate three countries from Europe at once: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia!
After all, the new NATO members, the Finns, are already receiving their share of threats. True, Finland is already a tough nut to crack, and they have experience in how to fight back against the Kremlin.
Already now, there are clear preparations for a possible attack: the signs are the same as before a full-scale invasion.
Until recently, it was believed that an attack on any country in the military bloc would automatically oblige the Pentagon to intervene. However, the policy of US President Donald Trump has changed the situation in the military bloc and now no one can be completely sure that Washington will act.
NATO still has no new plan. Meanwhile, Russia will conduct the Zapad-2025 exercises. 17 years ago, just after Kavkaz-2008, Russia occupied part of Georgia, and Zapad-2021 became a harbinger of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And one more reminder: 8 years ago Russia already practiced an attack on NATO. With a clear understanding of who it would strike first.
— In the West in 2017, they practiced fighting Vaishnoria, that mythical state that lies on the territory of the Baltic States. The probability that the exercises would turn into direct combat was there, but it was not that high, — says Pavel Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI.
If Zapad-2025 turns into a new invasion, then most likely it is the Suwalki Gap that will be under threat. The exercises themselves will take place in Belarus, but some of the maneuvers will be in the Leningrad Region. That is, next to Estonia.
Overall, NATO forces are superior to the Russian Federation:
- 4 million military personnel against 1 million 500 thousand;
- 4,500 tanks in NATO versus 3,000 that Moscow has;
- 7 thousand Western aircraft against 4 thousand Russian;
- 1,500 helicopters in NATO and about 500 in Russia.
But, as the Russian-Ukrainian war has shown, Moscow will be assisted by its allies in the axis of evil. The main one is China. Therefore, the proportions in technology may be somewhat different.
Meanwhile, for Western democracies, the main question remains: will that same Article 5 of NATO on collective assistance to the victim of aggression work? Not on paper, but in real life.
— If not, Russia will receive an argument: let's go from Suwalki. They will go into the Suwalki corridor, unite Kaliningrad with Belarus, divide Lithuania, Poland in such a way, demonstrating that Russia is now dictating what happens. Then, of course, there may be provocations in Transnistria, — says Mikhail Samus, an expert at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies.
Western analysts have already calculated that NATO countries will not be without difficulties in the conflict with Russia, but they will emerge victorious. True, Putin can turn defeat into victory.
— As a result, what will we get: NATO is destroyed. But another group of countries is formed that will fight. For Russia, this is an ideal option. That is, they destroyed NATO, they divided, they established these conflict zones within NATO, which will only get worse, — says Samus.
But will Putin be able to conduct two military campaigns simultaneously? After all, providing strike forces and logistics on both the Ukrainian and NATO fronts is clearly not a “Kyiv in three days” task.
This is precisely why, in fact, European countries and Great Britain are very willing to try to hide behind Ukraine and finance Ukrainian defense needs, but unfortunately, they finance it in the same, well, not completely, I would say, qualitatively, says the head of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, Valentin Badrak.
However, be that as it may, the latest NATO summit gives reason to hope for closer military cooperation.
