Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War said that the supply of Western aid greatly influenced the course of the war in Ukraine. In particular, they explained how the world helped us and identified three key stages of the Russian invasion.
According to analysts, help from the world was essential to Ukraine's survival. They also explained that the West gave advice to Ukraine before the attack on February 24, 2022.
What is known about the stages of the war in Ukraine
The ISW reminded that Western weapons systems, such as the Javelin anti-tank missile, helped Ukraine defeat the onslaught that surged on February 24 and push back the Russian attack on Kyiv to its starting points.
In 11 months of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, analysts say divided into three key steps:
- initiatives of the occupiers – February 24 to July 3, 2022 – after the temporary occupation of Lysichansk in early July, the offensive of the Russian occupiers reached its climax in a number of areas;
- counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – from August to the de-occupation of Kherson on November 11. Then the first big counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began on September 6 in the Kharkiv region;
- the period of positional warSince then, Ukraine has not been able to launch a new counteroffensive. This allowed the war to move into a positional phase.
This phase allowed the occupiers to regain their tactical initiative. The Western aid supply scheme greatly influenced the course of the war, the ISW said.
They also noted that the delivery of American-made 155-millimeter artillery systems in April, and then HIMARS installations in June, were important factors in the preparation Ukrainian counteroffensive.
How the West is now supplying weapons to Kyiv and what does it affect
Analysts have criticized the West for constant delays in the supply of weapons. After all, they believe:
- if the West began to provide Kyiv with the equipment necessary for a permanent counteroffensive, when the Russian attack reached its climax, then Ukraine could launch a counteroffensive earlier;
- if the West had begun working on a full transition of Ukraine to Western systems in the summer of 2022, when this need became obvious, conditions could be created for the continuation of the counteroffensive after the liberation of Kherson. This would make it impossible for the Russians to recuperate and try to renew the initiative.
The West's recent commitments to provide Ukraine with the tanks and armored personnel carriers it needs for further counter-offensive operations are important, but delays in meeting those commitments could cost Ukraine a chance to launch a counter-offensive this winter, the analysts said.
Moreover, according to them, Russian forces are likely preparing to launch their own offensive in the Luhansk region and are stepping up their operations in Bakhmut area.
Pay attention! The American Institute for the Study of War explained that Ukraine can liberate the occupied territory if there is the promised military support from the West. But Kyiv does not yet have the equipment needed to launch a counteroffensive. Therefore, the APU will probably have to wait many weeks until Western tanks arrive in sufficient numbers.
