The past week has been full of political events, such as increased pressure on US President Joe Biden with calls to withdraw from the election, as well as an attempt on the life of Republican leader and presidential candidate Donald Trump.
As for the Russian-Ukrainian war, this week there were statements about the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Krynki, which is on the left bank of the occupied Kherson region, and there were also some advances of Russian troops in the East of Ukraine.
What were the main events of the week, as well as what impact they will have for the present and near future, ICTV Facts were analyzed together with political scientist Oleg Sahakyan, as well as a military analyst, a Russian veteran -Ukrainian war Alexey Getman.
Now watching
- Hunting the shadow fleet of the Russian Federation
- How long will the Russian offensive last
- The situation in Toretsk
- Left bank of the Kherson region and Krynka
- Will Biden withdraw from the election
- Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance
Hunting the shadow fleet of the Russian Federation
The day before, newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that 44 European countries have approved a plan to combat the shadow fleet of Russian oil tankers, which Russia uses to circumvent sanctions.
These statements are not the first time, and former British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has already indicated that it is necessary to organize a hunt for these Russian ships, since this gives Russia the opportunity to replenish its budget for further warfare.
At the same time, the question arises whether this is not another political statement by European politicians that will not be followed by concrete actions, or vice versa, if such actions are nevertheless introduced, what mechanisms will the Europeans use to deprive the Russian Federation of funds with which it finances the war.
According to political scientist Oleg Sahakyan, after these statements it is worth waiting a little longer until the appropriate package of measures is adopted, which will already allow the implementation of the plan to hunt the so-called shadow fleet of the Russian Federation.
— Even if we don’t see these steps, we may see the result. And then we will be able to tell whether it is effective or not. Not yet the full range of mechanisms to counter Russia has been involved in this, at least starting with tracking ships and companies that serve Russian oil interests in order to block their ability to access other ports, — he says.
Another mechanism, the political scientist believes, could be the introduction of sanctions against those who are involved in the Russian Federation’s ability to carry out such sea transportation.
— And then these ships, and the companies, and even the personnel who operate on these ships will become toxic to the maritime industry, — he says.
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Also, EU countries can attract joint response mechanisms to cases of illegal transshipment of Russian oil: from tracking this transshipment using satellites or other monitoring capabilities, ending with blocking this oil in the places where it arrives if the rules are not followed according to the price limit that was set by the West.
— There are still a number of mechanisms that could be involved. And the wider the coalition of countries is ready to use them, the greater the effectiveness of such pressure will be, — he says.
How long will the Russian offensive last
Another issue is the Russian offensive, which has been going on virtually since October last year, and has not yet stopped. At the same time, according to Alexey Getman, offensive actions of any army cannot continue indefinitely.
— And these offensive actions, according to the analysis of serious institutions, our friends from various European countries, from the United States, indicate that with the intensity of hostilities that the Russians are now carrying out on the battlefield, and also taking into account their losses, this offensive can continue no more than until the end of August. This is maximum. Further it will decrease. It won't be harsh. The fighting will continue, but it will fade, — he says.
This is facilitated not only by the losses of the Russian army, but also by the depletion of the enemy’s equipment and logistics capabilities.
— In simple words it is called that the army is being depleted. There are no armies in the world that can actively attack without end for several years. This is exactly what is happening with the Russian army. She's getting exhausted. Due to the fact that we cause significant losses, — he continues.
According to the reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they were additionally preparing for this offensive, as both the Ukrainian authorities and the Ukrainian military spoke about.
— We knew about this. President Zelensky spoke about this. Our partners from different countries talked about this and knew about it. That they are gathering a large group and preparing for offensive actions. They planned a spring-summer offensive operation. Everything is happening now, — he adds.
The situation in Toretsk
At the same time, in the East, where the Russians are slowly but gradually moving, here, says military analyst Alexey Getman, the enemy is trying to advance to our railway in order to spoil the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and use Ukrainian railways .
— Will they try to encircle from the south and north, including New York? Well, we see these performances on the Deepstate map, and of course they are trying to do it. But everything has been obvious there since the Napoleonic wars. The Russians need flank attacks, commanding heights and water barriers. Nothing changed. The only thing that has changed is that instead of cannonballs there are more modern shells. The means have changed, — he says.
According to the reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the difficulty in cutting off the Russian advances that have formed in these directions of the East of Ukraine is that the Ukrainian troops are on the defensive, and completely different means are needed to cut them off, which will signify the offensive of Ukrainian troops.
— The fact is that the actions of troops on the defensive and the actions of troops on the offensive — These are different combat missions, these are different combat orders, these are different tactics. Transferring troops that are on the defensive to troops that must take offensive actions involves certain procedural issues. We cannot now remove the troops that are holding the defense in order to very quickly make strikes and cut off this advance. To do this you need to prepare, — he explains.
According to Getman, the issue of logistics support and the need for appropriate equipment are important here.
Moreover, if we go on the offensive now, it could weaken other directions at the front, which could “play a bad joke on us”.
— We can, to make it look beautiful, cut this ledge, but somewhere then we will fail the front, because we will have to withdraw troops, — he says.
Infographics: our website
Infographics: our website
Infographics: our website
Left bank of the Kherson region and Krynka
Over the past week, a number of Ukrainian media outlets have disseminated information that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have withdrawn from Krynki. This was preceded by a statement by a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Maryana Bezugla, on June 7, who said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine no longer control Krynki.
Already on July 18, reacting to these comments, the speaker of the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops, Dmitry Likhovy, pointed out that the Ukrainian military continues to hold the defense in the Krynok area on the left bank of the Kherson region, and the situation there is “not so critical” , as they write in the press. At the same time, Likhovy pointed out that the settlement of Krynki no longer exists as such, since this village has turned into a pile of stones and has become a place in which it is impossible to hold a defense.
In parallel with this, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that fighting in the Dnieper direction continues, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are repelling enemy attacks.
According to military analyst Alexei Getman, who is a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war and a major in the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, today there is no reason not to trust the information of the General Staff, since in almost 900 days of the big war the General Staff made a mistake only once, after which “ corrected himself very quickly”.
— There was never any false information. But it (information, — Ed.) comes constantly with a certain delay compared to what we would like. All the information that we publish officially is monitored, in the good sense of the word, by our partners, and we cannot afford to lie about what is happening on the battlefield, — he says.
As for Krynoki itself, Hetman continues, you should not fix your attention only on this settlement, since along the Dnieper and on the left bank of the Kherson region “quite a large territory”, where there is both the settlement of Cossack Camps and others.
— It is impossible to build a serious fortification there because there is groundwater. Therefore, all our locations there, all locations, they must be temporary, because no one is digging in there. It is impossible to build a fortification if you stay in one place for a long time, since this will be seen through the Russian (UAVs, — Ed.) Eagles, through their drones, and then will arrive (drones, — Ed.) Lancets, at best, or even covered with artillery, — says the expert.
Also between the left and right banks of the Dnieper there are small islands where the Ukrainian Defense Forces also have positions.
— Therefore, very serious work is going on there to prepare a springboard for future offensive actions in that direction. Therefore, this is not Krynki, or just one place, this is a bridgehead along tens of kilometers, — he says.
At the same time, Getman does not rule out that there may be places along this front line from where Ukrainian troops could withdraw, but this does not mean that the Defense Forces abandoned the bridgehead and the islands, which are also part of this bridgehead.
— We will continue to hold out and prepare so that when we repel the invasion on the Eastern Front, we will intensify our offensive operations in the South. This is also no secret, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and many analysts from different countries, including our NATO partners, talk about it, they say that yes, sooner or later, maybe even this year, we will be able , at least on some sectors of the front, to do, albeit not strategic, but tactical, that is, local offensive actions, — says Getman.
Regarding the statements of People's Deputy Bezugla regarding Krynki, reserve major Alexei Hetman says that this parliamentarian too often criticizes the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the commanders-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which discredits them and destabilizes the situation. Therefore, he believes, one should be critical of her opinion regarding military actions.
Will Biden withdraw from the election
After the debate between the 45th President of the United States Donald Trump and the current head of the White House Joe Biden was held at the end of June, the pressure on the American leader significantly increased in the democratic camp with calls to concede his candidacy during the election racing.
This pressure has especially intensified over the past week, when, according to media reports, influential Democrats such as former US President Barack Obama and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi have called for Biden to be removed from the election.
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According to political scientist Sahakyan, only Biden himself can remove Biden from the elections.
— This has a negative impact on the democratic electorate and disappoints some voters. The best option for the Democrats would be if Biden voluntarily left the election campaign from the very beginning. It would be a good boost for the Democratic Party, an electoral boost for the Democratic Party. Then Biden would have left with the image of a wise politician who deferred to personal interests before collective interests and left on a high note, doing what Trump would never do. And this would become an argument in the hands of the Democrats, — he says.
Secondly, the expert continues, Democrats would thus demonstrate that they are capable of updating themselves and making non-trivial decisions in order to protect the United States and put the state interest above personal or party interests.
— It is clear that under these circumstances, anyone who would be nominated in the Democratic Party would be perceived without the negative trail of Biden. And as an anti-Trump candidate would take on Democratic sympathies, he could marginalize and lose faith in some of the Republican voters from among Nikki Haley’s supporters, who see less evil in Trump than in Biden, — he says.
At the same time, in the case of another democratic candidate, it is quite likely, Sahakyan believes, that the argument of some Republicans to vote for Trump could disappear.
— But the situation took a negative turn for the Democrats, and now it looks extremely complicated, — continues the expert.
Thus, even if Biden withdraws his candidacy, the next Democratic candidate will “come on a scandalous note and will start with a negative result”. The new democratic candidate, Sahakyan believes, will have to overcome the existing disbelief in the Democratic Party and prove that he can win.
— Therefore, now, indeed, the situation for the Democrats is extremely bad. Regardless of whether Biden withdraws or does not withdraw, there will be consequences from this situation for the Democrats, in any case. The only thing we can hope for is that Trump, having now felt the “taste of victory”, may begin to make mistakes — says the expert.
It is also important that there are several months of the election campaign ahead, during which these mistakes can be made.
As for Biden, the political scientist believes that if he decides to leave the race for the main seat in the White House, the best way for the Democrats now is to record losses and withdraw now, while Biden is sick with Covid-19.
— Now Biden, with the words that he believes that Covid — is a certain sign, he really should withdraw from the election campaign and make way for younger people. He is under the influence of illness, it is clear that it will fall on such critical and important days for the Democratic Party, the election campaign, and he, as a responsible person, cannot allow this to happen, so he withdraws his candidacy and asks to support some other candidate, — he says.
Instead of Biden, such a candidate for the Democrats could be the current Vice President Kamala Harris, Sahakyan believes.
Trump and his Vice President JD Vance
In parallel with Biden and the situation in the democratic camp, Republican Donald Trump, says a political scientist, on the contrary — gained energy.
— Trump is now in an ascending position. This can be seen from the psychological state of him and his team, and Republican voters now feel the “taste of blood”, accordingly, their level of mobilization has increased. They managed to cleverly play up the assassination attempt on Trump, — he says.
According to Sahakyan, an important factor was not only the assassination attempt on the 45th President of the United States, but also the election of Senator J.D. Vance, “who is the personification of the American Dream” and a man “who created himself”. This move should bring more Republicans to the polls to vote for Trump, the expert says.
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A political scientist commenting on the latest CBS News poll indicates that the radical MAGA wing of the Republican Party is likely delighted with Trump's choice regarding J.D. Vance.
— This is a very effective polytechnological step, because Vance in all respects complements, balances Trump and highlights him from the best side.
Sahakyan names the following as Vance’s advantages for the Trump election campaign:
- J.D. Vance can lead small-town Americans to the polls;
- Republican Vice Presidential Candidate is Young — 39 years old — and this is a “alloy a la Trump's intelligence and wisdom, and on the other hand, Vance's youth”;
- this step demonstrates that Trump is ready to lead the younger generation, which Americans like;
- Trump does not put personal interests above party interests, which contrasts with Biden;
- Vance is a complete counterbalance to the Democratic agenda, being a white, heterosexual, working class American man;
- Republican Vice Presidential Candidate “has a good command of the written and spoken word, is a good speaker who can be released to journalists so that he can act as a bulletproof vest for Trump”.
— This is a purely mobilization technology in order to motivate those voters, Republicans who are not ready to vote for Trump, to come to the polls to see the Trump-Vance tandem. And you will see Vance in the chair from the president. And Trump himself, I don’t think he will give much space to Vance to really influence policy on issues that interest Trump, — says the political scientist.
According to Sahakyan, Vance will probably deal with social issues related to American villages and providing jobs, since for Trump this is not “particularly attractive”.
At the same time, the political scientist believes that Vance, who is an active critic of US aid to Ukraine, will quickly change his opinion if Donald Trump’s policy changes.
