The fate of Avdiivka may be decided in a week: a conversation with Roman Svitan

The situation in Avdeevka, Donetsk region, is critical. However, there are mechanisms to hold the city. The fate of Avdiivka can be decided in just a week.

About this in conversation with Channel 24 said a military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, instructor pilot Roman Svitan, noting that a collapse of the front should not occur. More about the situation in the Avdeevka area, what the threat is to neighboring settlements and what can help level out the situation in a few days – further in the material.

What can help in a few days straighten out the situation in Avdiivka

The situation in Avdiivka is critical, both the military and the international press are talking about it. Although this city has “grinded” a huge part of the Russian resource. Do Russians feel these losses? Because despite them they still continue to advance.

Why they gave it? The Avdeevka garrison could be maintained with a sufficient amount of ammunition. It’s like water in a tap – when you turn off the water, nothing will drip from the tap. Same picture. The Americans understand that by controlling the supply of ammunition and the allocation of financial assistance, they simply regulate all these processes.

It is very difficult to hold Avdiivka without sufficient ammunition, since more than half of the positions in the city area were covered with fire curtains. If you don't have shells, there won't be a screen – the Russians will get through.

That's why the situation in Avdeevka is really difficult now. There are mechanisms to hold it back. The question is at what cost and with what effort. The decision will be made directly by commanders in the Avdeevka area. Now serious forces have entered there to carry out these tactical tasks. The commanders there are smart, that is, they will quickly make a decision on the spot. Within a week it will be clear what decision was made.

Now a complete exit from Avdeevka is possible. During these 4 months, while our guys held the Avdiivka bridgehead, interception positions, that is, defense lines, were opened. Now we are absolutely not in danger of a front collapse. In general, we can level the front and hold it west of Avdeevka. That is, there will definitely not be a collapse until Karlovka.

However, then we will have to return Avdiivka back. It will be necessary to make 10 times more effort in order to return back to the old positions, since Avdievka is a height. And from this height the Russians are trying to drive us out. We can say that we held out only with the help of a sufficient amount of ammunition. Now we'll see – the week will tell.

If you look at the DeepState map, it turns out that today the Russians are leveling the front by closing Avdievka, if we are talking about these maneuvers that they are performing. Then Lastochkino, Tonenkoye, Severnoe, Orlovka, and almost Semyonovka remain in the same “oval”. Are these settlements at risk of falling into the same situation as Avdiivka?

A fortified area has been opened there. And in general it will depend precisely on the number and density of troops. That is, the deeper we stay towards Avdeevka, the longer the front line will be, and accordingly, the lower the density of troops. If we retreat, we will level the front completely – we will increase the density of troops.

Situation in the Avdeevka area/Screenshot of the DeepState map

But all this will depend on the availability of ammunition and allocated forces and means. Operational commanders will resolve these issues. However I would not hide the Avdeevsky bridgehead for now. The fact is that if in the next few days they find a sufficient amount of ammunition, the situation can definitely be leveled out.

That is, withdraw from some positions, get several Yet. Somewhere it is necessary to carry out offensive operations, somewhere rotation, movement, but the situation can be leveled out. Again, everything will directly depend on the amount of ammunition. This is a closed topic for now, so we can only observe the actions of our commanders, our troops who have now entered there. These are serious brigades and serious commanders who understand things, that is, good professionals.

There are many videos on social networks of what is happening in Avdiivka. The Russians themselves are filming how they are walking, everything around is destroyed, equipment is burning on the left and right and there are occupiers lying every 50 – 70 meters. The latest calculations were carried out several months ago, from October they were talking about 10 thousand dead on the Russian side. Now this is apparently 5–10 times more. Does the Russian army really not feel these losses? They still find the strength to put pressure and keep about 40 thousand manpower there.

This is the right motivation, a built recruitment mechanism. This is what Yevgeny Prigozhin launched at one time. Now this experience has been extended to the entire Russian army. They have no mobilization. They don’t force anyone into the army under pressure. There are queues at recruiting centers to get to the front. Of course, nothing stops them, because then they will lose what they came to the army for in the first place. That is, financial motivation.

There are different levels of motivation, but it is there. Some are promised a lot of money, some are promised some kind of social package, others are just promised a Russian passport. They find some motivational moments, so the Russians will definitely move in this direction. Absolutely nothing will stop them.

Where and when can Putin open a second front

ISW analysts wrote that the Kremlin is creating information conditions for a Russian hybrid operation in Moldova so that it becomes possible in the near future. Is this even possible and do the Russians have the resources to open another front? Because we know that this direction will be dangerous for us one way or another.

The fact is that it’s not just Moldova. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland are also under a hybrid strike now.

The hybrid strike has already taken place. There are already many Russians in Europe, in the Balkans, in Hungary, in Slovakia. There are hundreds of thousands of Russians there. Europe is filled with them, and this is a hybrid strike. I this is the beginning of a hybrid war. This is exactly how the war in Ukraine began.

Since 2004, Russians have entered Ukraine. They received Ukrainian passports and assumed power. We even had a pro-Russian president – ​​the same Viktor Yanukovych. Still hanging out somewhere in Rostov. That is, this is a proven system of hybrid warfare. The Russians are already doing it. Europe does not need to prepare for anything – they have been “eaten” for 10 years already. They just don't notice it. The Russians have already arrived and are ready to carry out certain actions.

But this is unlikely to be Moldova. Still, it is quite problematic for them to reach Moldova. It is necessary to at least break through the Kherson, Nikolaev, and Odessa regions. Reach Transnistria, and then begin to resolve the issue near the Danube and further to Chisinau. And this is practically impossible in the near future.

So, perhaps, this is precisely the Russian IPSO aimed at diverting attention from another direction, that is, from the Baltic. There is a direct border with Finland, the border with Estonia, and Latvia. Even with Lithuania, if through the Kaliningrad region. This is a problem and we need to prepare there. And not even to prepare, but to begin to act.

In general, our partners are already acting, the borders are closing. Estonia closes the border. Latvia is getting ready. Finland closes the border. It is necessary to further carry out certain internal purges of all Russians who have come to these countries in large numbers. And with a serious approach. To the point of allowing people to pass through polygraphs, even granting European citizenship if a person is ready to accept democratic values ​​and live in Europe. And those who refuse and leave their Russian passports must be deported.

It is very important to start doing it now. Otherwise it will be too late later. Then internal unrest will begin. This is how the hybrid war begins. That is, these Russians will begin to shake up the internal situation and wait for the “little green men”. Then the Russian army will come. Therefore, the absorption of Europe by the Russians is already underway and it is already necessary to act.

If we consider this in in such a way that the Russians can get on their tanks and go to any Baltic, European or NATO country, however much time our allies have? Taking into account the fact that the invaders are losing a lot of equipment at the front in Ukraine?

They definitely won’t go right away. They need to close the gestalt in Ukraine. It is very important. After the end of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine or after the defeat of the Russian army, the enemy will have five years to retrain. In addition, the Russians hope that they will now be able to push through the idea of ​​freezing hostilities. And then plus five years and catch all the tanks in the Baltic countries.

Not in Moldova. They will not reach Moldova. And in the Baltic countries. In about five years, they will “recharge” and prepare to carry out such actions. We won't stop. There is no mechanism to stop us until we defeat the Russian army. We need to crush it, destroy it, not let a single Russian out of Ukraine who came with a weapon.

Then it will be easier. But there will still be five years left, and then they will “recharge” again and begin to move. They are unlikely to go to Ukraine, knowing that they will get away with it here. In five years they will go to the Baltic side. Therefore, Europeans should already have one task. This is not only the defeat of the Russian army, but the collapse of Russia.

Putin threatens not only Ukraine/Getty Images

As long as it exists in within those limits, and in the constitution that now exists, it will especially threaten the Baltic countries. The situation there is quite difficult from a military point of view: these countries are pressed against the Baltic Sea, the geography there is bad. And the Russians have a certain advantage in this sense – purely geographical. Therefore, Russia must be destroyed. In no case should you stop at the defeat of the army – you need to destroy the empire. name=”The Occupiers want to put an end to the old theory of deep combat”>The occupiers want to apply the old theory of deep combat

ISW analysts wrote that Russian troops are trying to restore maneuver on the battlefield with using the Soviet theory of deep combat. But so far they cannot implement this theory due to the modern capabilities of Ukraine. What kind of theory is this about Soviet deep combat?

This is a deep dissection of fronts . This is unrealistic in the paradigm of the war that is currently going on. This requires millions of armies. They won’t be able to cope with the 400–500 thousand Russians who are now at the front. We also have approximately the same number of troops. Or even more. And the weapons that we have will not allow the Russians to break through the defenses at a distance of up to 100 kilometers. Simply impossible.

They can talk about it, dream about it, plan something, but nothing more. There is no mechanism. In order to carry out such operations in the current conditions, they need approximately 2 – 3 million Russians.

What will happen to mobilization in Russia after the “elections”

Regarding the amount of manpower in the Russian army. They have been talking about mobilization for a very long time and they say that after Putin “wins” the elections again, he will launch a more stringent mobilization. Although this is not very clear. He's already a dictator, so he can do it now. But there are rumors that strict mobilization will begin, and this will bring the Russian army to 1 million people. Is this real?

They don't need it. At least, of course, it's real. No questions. He can do it now. But they simply don't need it. If they need to increase it to a million, they will simply raise a certain level of monetary support. And there 1 – 2 million will line up.

They have already moved on from this. They tried once to mobilize 300 thousand Russian terrorists. We realized that this was just throwing money away. Therefore, they have moved away from this practice and are unlikely to return to it.

They have a recruiting mechanism and financial incentives. Well, then there’s a pretty good social package. Plus what the Russian “military” can offer. There are queues there. There will be no mobilization – there is no point.

How can Ukraine solve the problem of mine clearance

One of the most painful problems now is mine clearance and various equipment for demining. The US recently donated $1 million worth of mine clearance equipment to Ukraine. For the entire front, this is a drop in the ocean. What kind of equipment do we need if advancement is now impossible due to deep mining on the part of Russia? As soon as something approaches a minefield, the Russians work with artillery and drones. There are also machine gunners who do not allow either equipment or manpower to approach. How can this be overcome?

In general, it is impossible to use ground vehicles without air components. They will simply kill her all. Therefore, we must start with aviation in general. The Second World War also began with aviation.

It is the aviation component. It has been one of the main paradigms of warfare for at least a hundred years. And in the third millennium this is true. To act with ground forces, using the methods of trench warfare from the beginning of the last century… This is simply unrealistic in the current situation. All the equipment there will be destroyed.

Therefore, air support is needed, and until it is there, there is no point in moving anywhere. That is, planes will come in and will be redistributed. We need to restore the air force. Place one of the aviation brigade commanders in command of the air force.

We have a lot of them. From Mirgorod to Starokonstantinovskaya brigades. There is someone to choose. They know how to work the land. And then raise this commander to the level of Headquarters, so that he can draw up those diagrams of strategic directions and strategic actions in general with the help of aviation. And it is important to put aviation in first place.

After the operation of aviation weapons along the front line, there will be no machine gunners there. There will be no one to work there after the bombings – work on the ground by planes or helicopters. Only then will it be possible to move. And without aviation components, it’s just killing people and burning equipment. This is what happened last year.

On the effective use of F-16

Kirill Budanov assumed that F-16 fighters could be in Ukraine in the spring. But what is missing from them in order for the result to be maximum? The thesis has been repeatedly voiced that the planes themselves will not solve the issue of front and advance. We know the numbers from the Netherlands, how much we can get. Other countries are reluctant to talk about numbers. How many F-16s are needed? And what do you need to add to them for the result to be as effective as possible?

We don't have enough brains as pilots. They are simply not in the manual. There is not a single pilot in the leadership. Even now there is a new team. Have you heard of at least one pilot officer there? Landmen again.

If the flight component is not included in strategic planning, then it will not be transferred with the aircraft – at most they will perform the tasks of launchers for air defense. Nothing else. They will not carry out ground operations, because the air defense officers do not know what it is. The ground troops don't know what it is either. But there are no pilots in strategic planning, because we do not have an air force.

F-16 Fighters/Getty Images

That is, we return to the system error again, which has not yet been resolved by anyone. We need a commander in chief of the air force – a pilot who knows how to work on the ground and what is needed for this. And then the flight component will be in charge.

Look how more than 30 years ago – in 1991 – they carried out combat missions in the Iraqi army. Now the Russian army is practically no different from the Iraqi army 30 years ago. This is the same old Soviet army.

So, you need to work for several weeks – months first with aviation, and then only perform ground operations. Only when aviation has completed its task of clearing a certain area to a depth of 100 kilometers to the Sea of ​​Azov can demining be carried out, and so on.

But also Once again, we need to start with flight brains, which we simply don’t have in the General Staff now. And in the new team, and in the old one, there were none, because there is no air force.

And the aviation component, in particular the F-16, will definitely have ground-based weapons. These are air bombs, adjustable, free falling; unguided and guided missiles. That is, the job of the F-16 is to use them as bombers, as attack aircraft. This is very important.

Attack aircraft should attack, not military attack aircraft. That is, this is the task of the aviation component. Only with this approach will we win and defeat the Russian army. Another approach – the picture will be the same as last year. We will advance a maximum of 15 kilometers, we will lose equipment, we will lose people. And a range of 15 kilometers is the range of the combat radius of artillery weapons, nothing more. name=”What will give us superiority in the air”>What will give us advantage in the air

Mikhail Fedorov called on residents of the temporarily occupied territories to report Russian radar stations through the eVorog chatbot. Regarding Russian radars. How difficult is it to knock out such equipment and what does the lack of such systems threaten the occupiers with? ~This is the fulfillment of the main tasks of aviation before the start of offensive operations. Gaining an advantage in the air: destroying enemy air defense systems and destroying or driving away aircraft to a certain range.