A demographic crisis had gripped Ukraine even before the Russian invasion, but it was during the war that the situation worsened catastrophically, Der Spiegel reports.
Leading researcher at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Svetlana Aksenova told in an exclusive interview with ICTV Fakty what the demographic situation is and what will happen to the population after the war.
What is the demographic situation in Ukraine
Demographic crisis in Ukraine: how would you characterize the situation with the population now?
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— Everything is very correct, because we had a demographic crisis even before the start of the full-scale invasion. But even the beginning of the war in 2014 was very unstable. We still notice that this beginning has influenced the reproductive behavior of many families.
Considering that the political situation is very unstable, the unclear future of Ukraine due to military actions that began to occur in the East, this influenced the decision of many families to postpone having a child and wait for a safe period.
And the fact that there are many internally displaced persons who may not have traveled abroad, but there was significant migration across the controlled part of the territory of Ukraine, influenced. This also affected the fact that many families decided to wait with the birth of a child in order to improve the situation, understand where they will be and continue to run the household, arrange their lives. In the end, there were a lot of problems of a domestic nature.
All this is reflected, in particular, in the reproductive behavior of the population. Of course, these processes have had an impact. A full-scale invasion has simply engulfed even larger layers of the population. This is one of the most common strategies – postponing the birth of a child until a safe period arrives. That is, the demographic crisis is really manifesting itself now.
Will the departure of young men under 18 abroad become an additional blow to the demographic crisis in Ukraine?
— This is unlikely to happen now, because the same trends were taking place in Ukraine that were observed in all developed European countries. That is, the demographic trends of Ukraine as a whole were in unison with European countries. One of them is the so-called process of aging of motherhood and fatherhood. When childbirth shifts toward older reproductive groups.
For example, women and even men try to first get an education, then a profession, take certain steps in their professional activity and career, and then have a child. This is not only in Ukraine, but a common world practice, which is especially characteristic of developed countries.
< p > Still, this group at 18 years old, even up to 25 years old, is not the most active in terms of childbearing. Especially the group of men. In Ukraine, there has been a shift in the so-called leadership in childbearing activity of the age group. For a long time, women aged 20-24 years were characterized by the highest birth rate.
< p > Starting in 2018, this activity has shifted to women aged 25-29 years. Now they are the most active age group in terms of childbearing. Men have also moved a little towards older ages.
This group — does not mean that births do not occur there at all. Of course, they do. But I do not think that we will feel it.
Especially against the background of low birth rates and other factors that act and determine this behavior, when either the birth of a child is postponed, or there is a refusal, or they have not yet decided which strategy to choose. My personal opinion is that we will not feel it.
Another thing is that certain processes may be there. I understand how it sounds, but from a demographic point of view, when a person goes to a safer place, this happens within the framework of self-preservation behavior. That is, his life is preserved. Perhaps he will have children later. If we consider such a global process as a whole, it will continue to live in the following generations.
What will happen to the population of Ukraine after the war? How the situation with the demographic crisis can change?
— We expect the situation to improve. It is a very complex process. I have always said that democratization will occur, that a compensatory mechanism or effect will work.
It always works when some shocks or factors occur that affect the delay of the natural development of some process. After that, when either these factors disappear or the situation improves, the process is restored.
For example, if we are talking about the birth rate. Many families postpone having a child, trying to wait for a safe period. After the war, it is precisely this group of families that postponed having children that realizes their intention.
These implemented postponements of births will allow to increase the birth rate in general. But this is a mechanism that has always worked, even during the Second World War. Even in the example of the situation that occurred with Covid-19, a certain weakening has already influenced the fact that there was an increase in births.
But now, when we talk about our war, the longer it continues — the greater the risk that these postponed births will not be realized.
Let me remind you once again that this process of postponement has been going on since 2014, because they already felt the threats much earlier — until 2022.
First, the economic crisis manifested itself, which was delayed a little in Ukraine, but it still manifested itself before the war began. Then political tensions and problems that determined a certain strategy to postpone having a child, the beginning of the war, the epidemiological situation, and it all accumulates.
We have a generation of women who have been postponing having a child for a very long time. But we understand that a woman's biological ability to conceive and bear a child after a certain peak sharply decreases. Therefore, for a certain part, the expectation that the situation will improve may turn into the fact that it is no longer possible to have a child.
By the way, this is precisely what motivates some women to have children now, despite all the threats. And they decide to do it. But we cannot say how many of them there are, because this needs to be studied. Such cases exist, this happens — that's for sure. But how widespread it is, unfortunately, I do not know.
