The last few days have been rich in good news from the front. The Armed Forces are liberating the settlements of the Kharkiv region and are moving in the direction of Kupyansk. Against the backdrop of changes at the front, geopolitical changes are also taking place, including in the context of support for Ukraine.
Aleksey Pechy, Channel 24 host, shared his thoughts on this. Read more about the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, the prospects for the liberation of Kupyansk and Izyum, and changes in US security policy in Europe.
After the official liberation of Balakleya in the Kharkiv region, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is only gaining momentum, which creates all the prerequisites for encircling enemy troops. Moreover, the Institute for the Study of War claims that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can de-occupy Kupyansk in the next 72 hours. The de-occupation of the city will completely cut off supplies from the Russian group in the city of Izyum, which has already found itself in an actual operational encirclement. The Armed Forces of Ukraine may turn out to be about 10 thousand invaders. But the official Kremlin stubbornly refuses to comment on the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, assuring that there is no panic.
Most likely, they simply have not yet come up with a legend why it is allegedly beneficial for the Russians to flee from the Kharkiv region. You will have to run for sure and not only from the Kharkiv region.
The fifth summit of the Ramstein format was held in Germany the day before, where the partners highly appreciated the successes of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the most important break took place at Ramstein, which few people talk about – the West is completely rebuilding its military machine to strengthen the defense of Eastern Europe, transferring the defense industry to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also, almost for the first time, the thesis was voiced that NATO should help to completely modernize the Ukrainian army, which in the long term should become one of the best armies in the world, so that the Kremlin would no longer have any desire to attack Ukraine.
So, let's talk more about the situation about the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as about the strategic break in European security.
No Distraction: How the Counteroffensive in the South Really Worked to Liberate Kharkiv Oblast
Let's start, of course, with the situation at the front, in particular, in the Kharkiv region. The night before, Volodymyr Zelensky said that since the beginning of September, Ukrainian defenders have liberated more than 1,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory occupied by the Russians. And these are dozens of settlements that remained under occupation for half a year.
This appeal was preceded by an incredibly important event – the special unit of the Kraken Main Intelligence Directorate reported to the president that Balakleya had been released on his orders, and the enemy was forced to retreat. And it was a very important break, radically changing the situation in the Kharkiv region.
At this moment, it is immediately worth refuting one of the theses that the Russians are promoting, and on which some Ukrainians are being led – the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly staged an offensive in the Kherson region in order to distract the invaders from the Kharkiv region, and taking advantage of the situation, went on the offensive in the Balakleya region. This is only partly true. The day before, the Institute for the Study of War called the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine a tactical surprise for the Russians. They also noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, taking advantage of the redeployment of Russian forces, carried out an effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum.
Of course, Ukrainian forces used tactical surprise to advance at least 20 km in Kharkiv region on September 7th. The ongoing operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson region forced the Russian troops to concentrate in the South, which allowed the Ukrainian forces to launch very effective counterattacks in the Kharkiv region.
However, for the first time, and most importantly, it was mentioned in the report of the Institute that they consider it unlikely that the counteroffensive and attempts to divert Russian forces in southern Ukraine are a hoax to restore operations in the Kharkiv region. That is, the offensive in the Kherson region is not a distraction. Ukrainian forces wisely took advantage of the redeployment of Russian troops, equipment and general operational concentration to launch localized counter-offensives against critical points in the Kharkiv region, while continuing the offensive in the Kherson region. This is not a distraction – this is a well-planned working strategy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
And here it is important to understand that the situation is developing at such a speed that it is difficult to track it. The General Staff said that the Ukrainian military had broken through the front line and wedged into the enemy defenses to a depth of 50 kilometers.
And this is an incredible breakthrough. Indeed, on September 7, it was known that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had taken Balakleya into the operational encirclement and entered Verbovka and Yakovenkovo in the northern direction. This, together with the entry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into Bayrak and Novaya Gusarovka in the South, allowed our defenders to encircle the invaders. This is the boiler.
The invaders had one “window” to the east of Balakleya. And it was in this “window” that they ran away. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine constantly stepped on their heels. Accordingly, already on September 8, the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered Volokhov Yar and Ivanovka.
However, this is only half the way of the same wedge that the Armed Forces entered the enemy's defenses with. Already today, information has been received about the liberation of Shevchenkovo and the first footage of our military on the outskirts of Kupyansk has appeared. And here a number of experts assure that the liberation of Balakleya is an incredible success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but this is not yet the end of the situation, because it opened the way for our troops to Kupyansk and Izyum, which will be a turning point.
Panic and escape attempts: Kupyansk may be liberated in the next few hours
There is also very important news regarding Kupyansk. On the eve of the Institute for the Study of War, they assessed the chances of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to liberate the city, and, consequently, to cut off the enemy grouping in Izyum from the supply line. Analysts predict a release within the next 72 hours. However, it is worth making an amendment – this report was released at midnight on September 9, so the situation has already changed somewhat.
The occupiers in Izyum will probably still have a way to transfer reinforcements from the occupied part of the Lugansk region. However, in fact, the wedge with which the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the defense is expanding not only in the direction of Kupyansk, but also in the direction of Izyum, because it is also reported that the village of Savintsy is being liberated and moving towards transport hubs in Veseloe and Kunya. There is also information, not yet confirmed by the General Staff, that the Armed Forces have entered Senkovo, and this is already on the coast of the Oskol reservoir. It’s not worth going into details for now, but such a move already cuts off Izyum from logistics, so the invaders there were surrounded by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. So the Russians will soon start to panic from there.
However, the main efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now aimed at the liberation of Kupyansk, and there is now a real panic among the Russians. The day before, the fake head of the occupation administration of the Kharkiv region, Vitaliy Ganchev, had already announced the evacuation of all women and children from Kupyansk and the Kupyansky district, as well as the Izyumsky district, referring to the intensification of Ukrainian artillery and rocket strikes. However, most likely due to ongoing ground operations. The invaders are also trying to quickly forcibly mobilize men in the occupied territories of the Kharkiv region, because at present the local population contributes to the efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to de-occupy the region.
Of course, the liberation of Kupyansk will not break all the logistic routes of the occupier in the Kharkiv region, but this will be an incredibly important factor. The city is an important railway center, since Russian logistics is still tied up precisely with the railway, and not with the roads. And if we start from this thesis, then cutting off logistics in Kupyansk creates big problems not only for the group of invaders in Izyum, but also partially in the Donbass, because Izyum is also an important railway junction.
Deoccupation will continue, but meanwhile the Kremlin is avoiding comments
It is obvious that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region will continue, because on the eve of Vladimir Zelensky again convened the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander. According to the President, the Headquarters will continue to work in the format of fairly frequent meetings and meetings so that Ukrainian commanders on the ground have full support at all levels and that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence and the entire defense and security sector receive all the necessary resources and the necessary material, political, informational, diplomatic and other means for the effective defense of Ukraine and the expulsion of the occupiers. Zelensky added that all government activities are focused on the needs of the front and the protection of Ukrainians.
And what is important, the Ukrainian police and all services are already returning to the de-occupied territories to restore normal life and, of course, search for collaborators.
However, it is even ridiculous to watch how the Kremlin is trying to save face by completely ignoring reports about the liberation of the Kharkiv region. Today, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “there is no panic,” and let the Russian Defense Ministry comment on the entire situation at the front. He also added that pseudo-referendums are being canceled not because of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but allegedly because the locals are not yet ready for such a step.
That is, the Kremlin is just trying to hide its head in the sand pretending that nothing terrible is happening. However, there is a disaster for Russia – their military flees the battlefield, dressing in civilian clothes. This is the second army of the world. This is reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
According to intelligence, individual enemy units suffered significant losses. The invaders are trying to evacuate the wounded personnel and damaged military equipment to the areas of the settlements of Olkhovatka and Borodoyarskoe. The personnel of the occupying forces in civilian clothes resort to desertion and try to return to Russian territory.
In addition, do not forget that after the liberation of Izyum, the group of invaders who are trying to attack Slavyansk will also be under attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And now even the Russian edition of Meduza claims that along the line of Izyum Slavyansk, about 10,000 invaders may be surrounded by the Armed Forces. However, there is still “no panic” in the Kremlin.
How Ukraine's international partners evaluate the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
On September 9, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin noted the efforts of the Armed Forces and their successes in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. The head of the Pentagon called the successes of our troops a serious blow for Russia and a big push for Ukraine.
Also supported Ukraine and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who assured that our country is approaching a turning point, however, A difficult winter is ahead of all of us, so our partners must increase support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine so that Ukraine and its allies enter this winter from the most advantageous position. However, he added that Russia still hasn't abandoned its plans to seize all of Ukraine, no matter how strange it may sound.
But probably the most important message on the eve was voiced by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. He stated that Ukraine would independently decide under what conditions the war would end and would do so after the return of all territories occupied by Russia. After all, serious diplomacy requires the consent of both sides, and there are no signs from Russia that they are ready for diplomacy. So the only way out is to recapture the entire occupied territory and only then talk about something. Moreover, according to Blinken, Putin lost the most important game for him – he will never be able to convince anyone that Ukraine supposedly “is not an independent country and belongs to Russia”.
This game is already over. Putin lost here,” Blinken stressed.
All these statements were made against the backdrop of the fifth summit in the Rammstein format. There was an incredibly important shift in the issue of further support for Ukraine. The day before, Joe Biden held talks with the leaders of the G7 countries, NATO and the European Union on how to help Ukraine in military, humanitarian and economic matters.
War Russia's War Against Europe: Changes in Ramstein
After this conversation, Politico wrote about a completely different approach of the 5th Ramstein to the issue of further support for Ukraine. Western allies are increasingly paying attention to training Ukrainian soldiers and are trying to figure out how to equip them, experts say, as stocks in donor countries run low. What's more, Western governments are now also facing mounting economic pressures at home. Officials are also concerned that economic woes could undermine public support for a crackdown on Russia.
However, Lloyd Austin assured that the war has changed – now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking, and the Russians are defending themselves, which means that support issues are moving to another plane. In particular, we are no longer talking about the supply of weapons from the defense ministries of partner countries, but directly from the assembly line of armed giants and the training of Ukrainian soldiers.
Of course, the issue of the current needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was also discussed at Ramstein. According to Politico, when the defense ministers arrived for the meeting, they each found a document titled “Ukraine's Urgent Demands” on their desk. The top priority is more rocket launchers and ammunition to NATO standards, and only then more howitzers. The list also highlights the need for radar, air defense and combat aircraft.
However, much of the Ramstein meeting showed a change in Allied thinking. In his comments, Austin noted that weapons training and production will be among Ramstein's future priorities.
That is, the question is already as follows – how to launch the defense industry of the West in order to cover all the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not only today, but also in the future. And to do it in such a way that the Ukrainian army becomes one of the best in the world with completely advanced weapons.
However, this is only a part of those titanic shifts that took place on the 5th Rammstein. The day before, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Kyiv and announced new military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and Eastern European allies in the amount of $2.8 billion. And noted that the US is moving from timely arms transfers to Ukraine to a long-term effort to equip countries across NATO's eastern flag.
Approximately $1 billion distributed among Ukraine's 18 neighbors, stretching from the Baltic to the Mediterranean sea, cutting through a wide strip along the entire western border of Russia. In fact, this is the first recognition that the war unleashed by Russia is not only a war against Ukraine, but also against the whole of Europe.
