The American Institute for the Study of War emphasizes that the Russians are planning a new offensive in Donbas. To do this, the invaders will have to reduce the number of their forces in other directions.
ThisChannel 24 was told by the reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert, pilot-instructor Roman Svitan. The Institute for the Study of War believes that the invaders intend to carry out several stages of offensive operations, during which the enemy will try to reach the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Analysts suggest that these stages may be delayed for a period of 6 to 12 months. The military expert noted that such actions of the invaders will play in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“The more the Russians concentrate on the Donbas, the less troops they will have on the Zaporozhye front,” Svitan said.
“Swings” with the transfer of forces
According to the reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is not the total number that matters here, but the ratio of troops on both sides. For example, conditionally now in the Orekhov region in the Zaporozhye region we have 30 thousand military men, and the Russians have the same number.
There is a certain parity and we are standing still. And if, for example, we have 100,000 troops there, then the Russians will have to transfer a certain number of troops there, taking them from the Donetsk front,” the military expert noted.
Svitan added that such “swings” depend on the number of troops and readiness to move can occur constantly. According to him, Russian troops will be moving mainly reserves.
“That is, they can leave the general pressure, but they will remove the specifics. The Russians will reinforce a certain section of the front just enough so that we cannot perform certain offensive actions,” Svitan suggested.
Prospects for the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the offensive in the Zaporozhye region
The military expert stressed that when deciding on an offensive, all the skill of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny and the General Staff will be displayed. Svitan explained that while the invaders are occupied by the Donbass, the Ukrainian military can concentrate their efforts in the Zaporozhye direction.
Roman Svitan
Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert
The Armed Forces of Ukraine can carry out certain actions, within 2 – 5 days having managed to transfer reserves, and catch the Russians on the “opposite move”. This is exactly what happened in the Kharkov region, when our troops left Balakleya for Kupyansk. All the Russians then went to Kherson, and we caught them and went to Kupyansk.
The colonel of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine added that this is how the situation could develop on the Zaporozhye front. Svitan believes that the military-political leadership will “catch” such periods to launch offensive operations in this direction.
The situation at the front: in short
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing out the enemy, inflicting significant losses in manpower. Now the hottest direction of the front remains the East. In particular, the occupiers do not stop their attempts to advance in the Bakhmut direction.
- The Russians tried to exert large-scale pressure on Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. However, all attempts at an offensive by Russian troops failed.
- Vladimir Zelensky said that the situation in Donbas is escalating daily. The occupiers are transferring regular soldiers or Wagnerites there.
- The President noted that Russia seems to be striving for a “big revenge” and has already begun it. However, Zelensky is convinced that Russia will not achieve positive results in the offensive.
