The “Black Swan” is already flapping its wings: could the “Syrian scenario” be repeated in Russia?

“The Black Swan” is already flapping its wings: could the “Syrian scenario” be repeated in Russia? Natalia Belzetskaya

In early December 2024, Syrian rebels managed to overthrow the long-standing regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad. Already in January 2025, the Ukrainian delegation made a historic visit to the new Syrian government.

Such visits were quite difficult to organize, but Ukraine managed to do it in the shortest possible time. Political scientist Oleg Lesnoy noted to Channel 24 that Syria could be interesting for Ukraine for several reasons at once.

Could Putin repeat Assad's fate

It is clear that Syria does not like Russia, which supported Bashar al-Assad's regime for many years. Moreover, the dictator and his family fled to Moscow. In addition, we can talk about such a common enemy as Iran. For Syrians, this country may eventually become a serious problem.

This is a very interesting precedent, which once again shows that dictatorial regimes based only on blood and murder can be destroyed in a short time. There are obvious analogies with Russia. Although there are certain experts who say that the fall of Vladimir Putin is impossible, because Russia has a strong vertical of power, a powerful repressive mechanism in the form of security forces and the military. The people themselves are not ready for an uprising.

Then I have a question for these experts, 11 days before the revolution in Syria, you could say that Assad would run to Moscow? Basically, they answer no. So why can't we make the same conclusion about Russia? – the political scientist emphasized.

He added that dictatorial regimes have never looked as confident and powerful as before their fall. Another peculiarity is that they fall very quickly if this process has already begun.

“I believe that the Syrian case in the context of the fall of the Assad regime is a “black swan” that is already flapping its wings over Russia. Why then can't it collapse the way the regime in Syria collapsed?”, Oleg Lesnoy emphasized.

Recall that the Syrian rebels began their offensive on November 27, 2024, and on December 8 they captured the capital of Syria, Damascus. Assad was forced to flee, as was the Russian contingent that had been there for many years.