The Arctic is in the crosshairs: ISW noticed signs of Russia preparing for a direct conflict with NATO

Putin started an information campaign on the Arctic/Collage 24 Channel< p _ngcontent-sc197 class="news-annotation">ISW analysts point to an increase in Russian information activity, which may indicate preparation for a direct conflict with NATO. This time in the tension zone – the Arctic.

Russian military officers awarded by the Kremlin are increasingly mentioning the Arctic, as Denmark speaks of the region as a low-voltage zone. At the same time, General Gerasimov argues that the Russian military presence in the Arctic pursues the goal of economic development, not a show of force.

Arctic : a new front of confrontation?

As the Institute for the Study of War writes, Russian officials and propagandists are increasing their rhetoric, accusing the West of preparing for a conflict in the Arctic. Putin calls the West an “enemy,” and the reform of the Leningrad Military District indicates that Moscow is preparing to “counter threats” from NATO.

In the Kremlin The West is increasingly accused of preparing the Arctic countries for confrontation against Russia. They claim that Russia was forced to respond by reforming the Leningrad Military District to counter threats from Finland, ISW notes.

The Kremlin's recent statements about this cold region may be part of Russia's broader strategy. The most important thing is that this creates an information background that could justify, in the eyes of Moscow, aggressive actions in the Arctic against the West.

Despite the current absence of immediate signs of conflict in this area, history full-scale invasion of Ukraine shows that information campaigns can precede military action. The situation in the Arctic requires close attention of the international community.

Context

• ISW analysts have previously pointed to Russia's efforts to reorganize and expand its military forces. This may indicate preparations for a large-scale war against NATO, in particular in the Arctic region.
• Vladimir Putin recently took part in a flag-raising ceremony on two nuclear submarines. This demonstrates the Kremlin's intention to expand its naval capabilities far beyond its traditional spheres of influence.
• Increasing nuclear rhetoric and potential preparations for nuclear testing in the Arctic may be part of the Kremlin's strategy with the goal of destabilizing the West and demonstrating power.
• Vladimir Osechkin notes that Russia’s actions in the Arctic, although they are intended to intimidate, may have the opposite effect, causing international condemnation. In fact, they could cause even greater isolation of Russia on the world stage.
• Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the Arctic, although unlikely, could become Putin's greatest weakness and lead to serious international consequences .