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As of September 1, China has new rules regarding restrictions on exported components for drones, which are widespread in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
As The New York Times notes, this could have a significant impact on the course of hostilities, since both Ukraine and Russia widely use drones in the war.
The newspaper notes the high efficiency of consumer UAVs, which the Ukrainian military is successfully modifying in war. However, spare parts for these drones quickly run out during modification due to the massive use of drones, and the search for new supplies becomes a separate problem.
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— At night we carry out bombing missions, and during the day we think about how to get new drones. This is a constant search, — says 44-year-old Oles Malyarevich, an officer in the 92nd Mechanized Brigade.
Like no other conflict in human history, the war in Ukraine — This is a war of drones, writes NYT.
— This means increasing dependence on aircraft suppliers — in particular from China. While Iran and Turkey produce large military-grade drones used by Russia and Ukraine, the cheap consumer drones that have become ubiquitous on the front lines come largely from China, the world's largest manufacturer of these devices, — writes the publication.
This, the NYT notes, gives China hidden influence in the war, which is being waged in part with the help of consumer electronics.
As the Ukrainians looked at all sorts of drones and converted them into weapons, they had to find new ways to maintain supplies and further improve these devices. However, these efforts are facing new obstacles as Chinese suppliers have reduced their sales since new Chinese rules restricting the export of drone components went into effect on September 1.
— We are exploring all possible ways to export drones from China, because no matter what they say, they produce the most there — said Malyarevich, who helps find drone suppliers for his division.
For more than a decade, Chinese companies such as DJI, EHang and Autel have been producing drones on an ever-increasing scale. They now produce millions of drones a year for amateur, outdoor, and professional videographers, far outpacing other countries.
According to research group DroneAnalyst, DJI is China's largest drone maker. more than 90% of the global consumer drone market.
As the NYT notes, citing an analysis of trade data and interviews with more than a dozen Ukrainian drone manufacturers, pilots and instructors, in recent months Chinese companies have reduced sales of drones and components to Ukrainians.
— Chinese firms that are still willing to sell often require buyers to use complex networks of intermediaries similar to those Russia uses to circumvent U.S. and European export controls, — writes the publication.
The newspaper also points out that some Ukrainians are forced to beg, borrow and smuggle what is needed to replace UAVs shot down from the sky.
According to a British security think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Ukraine loses approximately 10 thousand drones per month.
As the NYT writes, many fear that China's new rules limiting the sale of components for drones could exacerbate problems with supplies to Ukraine during the winter period.
At the same time, such obstacles play into Russia's hands. According to trade statistics, direct supplies of drones by Chinese companies to Ukraine this year through June amounted to just over $200 thousand, writes NYT. Over the same period, Russia received direct supplies of drones worth at least $14.5 million from Chinese trading companies.
Ukraine still receives millions of Chinese-made drones and components, but most of them come from European middlemen, according to official Russian and Ukrainian customs data obtained from a third-party supplier.
Ukrainian soldiers forced from early days wars to become electronic masters, now they must also be amateurs in managing supply chains.
Malyarevich says members of his unit had to find money on their own to buy new antennas for reconnaissance drones to prevent Russian radio interference.
— We are having to invent increasingly complex supply chains. We have to convince Chinese factories to help us with components, because they are not very willing to help us, — says Maria Berlinskaya, a long-time expert on combat drones and the head of the Droni Peremogi project, which trains military personnel in the use of this technology.
According to her, victory in the war turned into a “technological marathon”.
In turn, the founder of the company Reactive Drone from Dnepr Alexey Kolesnik, whose company owes its existence to China's industrial policy, says there are enough components for now, but the situation could get worse in the future.
Reactive Drone was founded in 2017 by Kolesnik and friends after Chinese subsidies led to a glut of drone components produced there. Taking advantage of this, Kolesnik began supplying parts for his own agricultural drones, which he then sold to farmers who used them to spray pesticides in eastern Ukraine.
New export rules could make it harder to obtain the night vision cameras needed for the new ones, he said. drones.
— Even when you see labels like America or Australiaon the component, it is still produced in China. To create something that could effectively replace China is really almost impossible, — he says.
Today, Ukrainians are competing with Russians to buy FPV drones from Chinese firms that are willing to sell them directly. Russians often have an advantage because they can bid higher and order larger quantities. In addition, selling to Russians is politically safer for Chinese companies, writes the NYT.
The Ukrainian company Escadrone, which supplies drones, has been purchasing components for assembling aircraft from China for a long time. The company's founder, who gave only his first name Andrey, fearing persecution from Russia, says profit incentives force Chinese companies to sell to both sides.
— Chinese companies tell me that they hate Russians, and Ukraine — the best. And then I see their engines on Russian drones, — he said.
The publication summarizes that replacing China as a source of drones such as FPV or Mavic drones will not be easy, but preliminary signs show that Ukraine is sourcing components from Europe, the US and others countries such as Taiwan for some advanced drones.
In addition, as the NYT adds, fixed-wing reconnaissance drone company Ukrspetssystems said supply problems from China have forced it to look elsewhere .
