In Russia, there are different influence groups that have different scenarios about future actions in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, there is no “formula” for getting out of the war that the Kremlin needs.
Putin 's blackmail of Ukraine leads Russia only to a single logical scenario . Ivan Uss, chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told Channel 24 about this.
Dilemma for Moscow
The expert noted that today the Kremlin does not know what to do next in the war against Ukraine.
Now there is a search for the “optimal formula” how to get out. But so far I do not see a real desire to stop something. Statements about the talks are heard next to the slogan “you acknowledge everything that happened” and “start from scratch.” Even the Russians seem to understand that this is unacceptable for Ukraine . – the observer explained.
According to him, even a return to the “status quo” on February 24 is no longer acceptable for Ukraine.
“And even a return to the borders in which Ukraine restored its independence will also be unacceptable. Zelensky recently signed a decree stating that Ukraine does not recognize the Kuriles, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria as Russian. Only under all these conditions are some negotiations possible” , the analyst added.
Is Putin losing in the war against Ukraine: watch the video
Influence groups in the Kremlin
Uss indicated that given the mentality of the people who are now in power in Russia, they will try to continue the war .
This is the St. Petersburg gateway – they, of course, want to go to the end . In Russia as a whole, there are two groups in power: one is the party of “big blood” , the other is the party of “money and blood” . The second party supported aggressive actions, but wants to exist after the war. The first party staked everything on this war, without even thinking that if you do this, you can lose, – the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, Russia's loss in the war will mean war everyone”.
“Not for the first time in the history of Russia, a situation arose when they expected a“ small victorious war ”, but suffered a shameful defeat. The war with Japan, which ended in the defeat of Russia, led to turbulent events, intensified by dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities during the First World War, in particular due to mobilization. It ended with two revolutions that destroyed the Russian Empire,” the observer added.
What could be the finale
Uss said that the “final of Russia” could end with the collapse of the country.
Ukraine, along with other countries, needs to decide how we will recognize the independence of certain parts of Russia. The collapse of Russia is a very logical end of the “raising the stakes” game. That is, there was a period when Russia could stop in order to keep itself within the limits in which it existed before February 24, the expert explained.
He pointed out that when the Russians started a big war, for them the end could really be in disintegration, with large parts of Russia simply declaring their independence simply because they would not want to be associated with defeat.
“Everything is leading to the fact that Russia may lose. For example, why should Tatarstan take responsibility for this defeat? It is better to declare sovereignty or independence. Turkey could very quickly recognize such a decision. Now some work is being done on this issue … In Russia now Choice: either return to the border of 1991, or everything ends badly ”, the analyst concluded.
The agony of the Russian authorities: what is known
- On the morning of October 8, explosions were heard on the Crimean bridge. It has already become known that behind the “cotton” are Ukrainian special services, including the Security Service of Ukraine.
- Subsequently, Putin ordered the FSB to protect the Crimean bridge.
- On the morning of October 10, Russian infidels launched up to a hundred rocket attacks on Ukraine. : Rivne, Lvov, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Dnepropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, Nikolaev, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv regions and Kyiv.
- On the same day, Putin commented on the massive missile strikes on Ukraine. according to him, this was done in response to the alleged “acts of terrorism on the territory of Russia”.
