The thesis that the West is allegedly seriously considering the issue in order to end the war in Ukraine on Korean script. That is, Ukraine's partners are ready to agree to the division of Ukraine into two parts.
This thesis was put forward for public discussion by former adviser to the Office of the President Oleksiy Arestovich, referring to a report by the American RAND Analytical Center. NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov has already reacted critically to such a statement, noting that there will be no separation. JournalistChannel 24Aleksey Pechiy researched where such information came from and why it is being thrown into the information space.
Arestovich stuffing: how the Kremlin propaganda promoted the topic of the end of the war
So, Aleksey Arestovich again abandoned the thesis that supposedly the victory of Ukraine would be completely different from what the majority of Ukrainians imagine it to be. He suggested that the way out of this war might not be at all what it seemed to us three months ago, after the success of the Kherson operation.
They say that about 400 thousand perfectly trained well-trained soldiers with NATO weapons. And, according to him, we should not expect such forces to appear in Ukraine in the coming year.
As Arestovich says, allegedly in the West, realizing this, they are already suggesting a two-Korea scenario for Ukraine. That isthe creation of a conditional South Korea with security guarantees.
This statement by Arestovich was immediatelyreplicated by the propaganda mediain the vein that in Ukraine they allegedly started talking about the division of the country. After that, the former adviser to the OP stated that he was only “considering different scenarios”, which are also being discussed in the West.
In particular, Arestovich mentioned the American analytical RAND Center, which is also considering such a scenario. And Russian propaganda has already hyped up from this thesis thatthe supposedly RAND Analytical Center has already put a certain report on Biden's desk, which proves that the only way out of this war is to divide Ukraine.
Therefore, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov has already reacted to such stuffing, saying thatthere will be no division of Ukraine according to the Korean scenario.< /strong>
The Russians are now trying to realize that they have no chance of seizing Ukrainian territories. Therefore, they began to raise issues of negotiations. So today they are begging. They take a whole pool of negotiators. They are now doing a great job with certain groups to enter into negotiations. Already Brazil, and whoever is not in the mediation,” said Danilov.
The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council recalled four simple demands of Ukraine:
- liberate all our territories that are currently temporarily occupied ,
- responsibility through the tribunal of those people who started all this,
- security guarantees for Ukraine,
- responsibility.
What is wrong with the report referred to by Arestovich
However, one should pay attention to the report of the RAND Analytical Center referred to by Arestovich.
Back in late January, the RAND Corporation published a report entitled “How to avoid a long war” between Russia and Ukraine. This report immediately begins with the words that neither country will achieve “absolute victory” over the other.
Analysts point out that Ukraine is not aiming for this absolute victory, as it only wants to regain its territories without destroying Russia. Immediately a hint that we need to sit down at the negotiating table now.
The study directly states that Ukraine will not win, which is alarming. The authors offer possible options for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war:
- absolute victory,
- truce,
- political settlement.
Speaking of absolute victory, experts refer to the definition according to which “the winner establishes a new leadership in the defeated state, occupying or annexing the enemy's territory…”.
However,Ukraine has never stated that it seeks Russia. That's bullshit! But analysts argue that if Ukraine simply returns to its borders in 1991, Russia will still be able to strike with the fleet and air force.
So, analysts say, since neither side has the capacity to achieve an absolute victory, the war must end in negotiations. A truce in Ukraine, experts expect, will freeze the front line and lead to a long-term cessation of active hostilities.
And then the most interesting: “Russia will stop trying to occupy additional Ukrainian territories and stop missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The Ukrainian Armed Forces would then stop their counter-offensives – attacks on Russian-held areas of Ukraine and on Russia itself. There will remain unresolved territorial issues, which will be appealed politically and economically, not military”.
This reveals the allusion to the Korean scenario for Ukraine!
And this is even more alarming , after all, it would seem that we are talking about the American think tank. Moreover, it is alarming when The Washington Post published polling data among American Democrats and Republicans. Most of the latter are calling for actually giving part of Ukraine to Putin.
The Kremlin trace: who is really behind the study of the Americans
This is really terrifying, because the United States is our main partner. However, attention should be paid here to the history of the RAND Center and the author of the study. RAND is indeed a reputable research center in the US, but ever since the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008it has been suspected of working for the Russians.
Author of the article Samuel Sharap
strong>in his time he was a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center, a Fulbright Scholar at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations – MGIMO. Sharap is also a guest expert at the Kremlin's Valdai discussion club, where Putin annually explains what the “correct” analysis of Russia should be.
Also, Sharap is known for having proposed a similar approach before to solving the problems of the territories of Georgia occupied by Russia – at the expense of the interests of Georgia in favor of Russia. Like, you can just share the territories, and then the war will end immediately. And Sharap in November 2021 already suggested simply giving the Donbass and Crimea to Putin in order to avoid war.
And now we add Danilov’s today’s statement to all this, that the Kremlin understands that it will be extremely difficult for him to capture the Donbass, and therefore he is now sending negotiators to the West so that the West begins to force Ukraine to negotiate. So, draw your own conclusions –there is no Korean scenario for Ukraine.
