Representatives of a number of Western universities (mainly the USA, Europe and Canada) signed an open letter calling not to invite Ukraine to NATO due to the risk of war between the Alliance and Russia.
A letter with the signatures of 61 representatives of various universities around the world was published in the British The Guardian on the eve of the NATO summit in Washington, which will last from July 9 to 11.
University representatives are against Ukraine’s entry into NATO — letter
Representatives of Western universities at the beginning of the letter remind that at last year’s NATO summit, the United States focused on improving Ukraine’s self-defense capabilities, and not on discussing the country’s potential membership in the Alliance. Therefore, they continue, at the current NATO summit “some are insisting that NATO bring Ukraine significantly closer to membership in the Alliance, for example, by defining an accession process for Kyiv or inviting the country to join this process”.
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— Any such move would be unwise, — the signatories of the letter believe.
They reinforce their doubts by thinking that Article 5 of the NATO Charter “obliges members of the alliance — in practice, first of all, the United States — enter into war to repel an attack on any member of the alliance”.
— If Ukraine joins NATO after the current war, the United States and its allies will believe that they are committing to fight Russian forces inside Ukraine if Russia invades there again. Reflecting a broad political consensus, Joe Biden has ruled out the direct use of US military force since the start of Russia's horrific full-scale invasion two years ago. The Administration recognizes that the security and prosperity of the United States is not sufficiently affected by the present war to justify direct US military intervention. Indeed, both the US President and former President Donald Trump warned that the conflict could escalate into “World War III”. For the same reason that the United States should not commit to going to war with Russia over Ukraine today, it should not commit to going to war with Russia over Ukraine in the future, — write from university representatives.
As the signatories continue, some argue that Ukraine's entry into NATO will deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, but they call this thesis wishful thinking.
— Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO members have demonstrated through their actions that they do not believe the stakes in this conflict, while significant, justify the cost of war. If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will have reason to doubt the reliability of security guarantees from the Alliance — and will have the opportunity to test and potentially break the alliance. The result could be outright war between NATO and Russia or the collapse of NATO itself, — write from university representatives.
According to them, “the balanced prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine does a disservice to Ukrainians who are bravely fighting for their independence”.
— The closer NATO comes to promising that Ukraine will join the alliance after the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to continue the war and kill Ukrainians to prevent Ukraine from integrating into NATO. Ukraine faces a difficult choice with enormous consequences for its future. Ukrainians deserve to weigh their strategic options with clear eyes, and not through rose-colored glasses held out by outsiders who do not have the support of their countries, — the signatories of the letter write.
According to university representatives, the challenges posed by Russia “can be dealt with without Ukraine joining NATO”, and Ukraine's progress towards membership in the alliance “could worsen the problem, turning Ukraine into a place long standoff between the world's two leading nuclear powers and playing into the hands of Vladimir Putin, who claims that in Ukraine he is fighting the West, not the people of Ukraine”.
As the letter's signatories summarize, NATO's purpose is not to “demonstrate respect for other countries”but rather to “defend NATO territory and enhance the security of its members Alliance”. Accordingly, the letter states, “acceptance of Ukraine would reduce the security of the United States and NATO allies, which would pose a significant risk to all“.
Similar opinions in the West — minority
According to Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, such letters “are a reflection of a discussion that has been going on for a long time”. Since last year, he continues, this debate has only intensified.
— Now there are no grounds or reasons for there to be a decision to invite Ukraine to NATO. This is not what we are talking about. But it is being discussed, and it is expected in the final document, that there will be a thesis on the irreversibility of Ukraine’s entry into NATO. The authors of this letter are not denying what needs to be accepted now. Because now no one accepts Ukraine. And they deny the need for Ukraine to join NATO at all. They believe that as a result of this, the threat of war between NATO and Russia will be not only now, but in general, in the future, — Fesenko said in a comment to Facts ICTV.
At the same time, the political scientist believes, Most experts on geopolitics or international security in the West have a different opinion.
— They believe that, on the contrary, it is Ukraine’s membership in NATO that will become the main fuse against a new Russian war against Ukraine. There is not a single precedent yet for Russia to attack a NATO country. There are such intentions regarding the Baltic countries, there are many publications, but we are talking about plans for a hybrid war, — explains the expert.
Accordingly, Fesenko believes, one should not look for some kind of “conspiracy” among the signatories of the open letter. or “the hand of the Kremlin”, although, he adds, if you look for some representatives of universities, such connections can be found.
— But there are many politicians and experts who quite sincerely believe that it is better not to touch the Russian bear’s mustache. Let him do whatever he wants in the post-Soviet space. We really need to give him this space. This is their position. It was there before, it is there now. These are people who believe that it is better to negotiate with an aggressor than to stop him. This is not a new position. This was the position at one time in Europe, when they tried to appease Hitler, — he reminds.
According to the political scientist, such experts are in the minority today, since the strategy when it comes to agreements with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed along with the failure of the policy of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel towards the Russian Federation.
— Now in Europe the absolute majority of politicians, especially those in power, are really aware of the threats from Russia. It is the awareness of these threats that has exacerbated the situation. Some experts believe that Russia must be contained. Both militarily and by strengthening the defense capability of NATO countries and by supporting Ukraine. And the other part of the experts are opportunists, cowards who believe that it is better to give the aggressor what he wants, and he will calm down, and there will be no war. He does not want Ukraine to be in NATO, so let's ban it. They think that this will solve the problem, — he says.
As an example, Fesenko recalls that Russian dictator Putin at the end of 2021, even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, issued an ultimatum to the United States and NATO to push back the borders of the North Atlantic Alliance to the 1997 borders.
— What it is, no one still knows. What was meant? The exclusion of the Baltic countries, Poland and other countries that joined NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union? Or simply the withdrawal of troops from the Baltic countries? But this would also be a capitulation to Russia. And this is just evidence that Putin needs not only Ukraine. Putin wants satisfaction, Putin wants to move NATO further. And if Putin senses NATO's weakness, he will move on. I and many experts, both foreign and domestic, believe that Putin attacks those whom he considers weak. This is the instinct of the aggressor, the instinct of the predator, — says the political scientist.
According to the expert, if the Russian dictator sees a strong enemy in front of him, then his desire to attack anyone will disappear. And it was precisely this kind of weak position that Putin could see in representatives of the West in 2014, which freed his hands and allowed him to first occupy and annex Crimea, and then start a hybrid war in eastern Ukraine.
NATO summit in Washington
We would like to remind you that the NATO summit will be held in Washington from July 9 to July 11.
According to The NYT, the Alliance is preparing to provide a long-term perspective for Ukraine regarding NATO membership, but representatives of official Kyiv themselves will not receive an official invitation to the security bloc.
It is also expected that NATO members can agree on annual funding for Ukraine in the amount of €40 billion.
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, at the summit in Washington the main topics of the meeting will be deterrence and defense, support for Ukraine and global partnership.
