Some Western capitals worry that time may be in Russia's favor. That is why the West has dramatically increased military aid to Ukraine.
The concern of countries indicates that the window of opportunity for Ukraine is not endless. Moreover, it needs powerful Western weapons in the near future.
Why Ukraine needs weapons as soon as possible
Ukraine needs weapons as soon as possible powerful Western weaponry to boost the momentum achieved by the country during the 2022 counter-offensive.
Although the publication recalls that literally in the spring of 2022, when the Russians retreated from Kyiv, the West hoped that the longer the hostilities continued, the more likely Ukraine would win. Western governments believed:
- if Europe and the US remain united after a hard winter, Russia's economic problems and military setbacks, deepened by sanctions, could force Moscow to seek peace;
- as we approach the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – that is, by February 24, 2023 – this certainty disappears.
Officials in some capitals now fear that the Kremlin, ready to continue throwing men and equipment into the war, might gain the upper hand in a protracted war of attrition. Therefore, it is better to provide Ukraine with more modern weapons that could help it change the dynamics of the war and undermine Russia's combat capability, the report says.
What are the forecasts for Russia's actions
The publication notes that the Russian army has suffered significant losses and lacks important military capabilities, in particular high-precision missiles. Moreover, the oil embargo and price cuts on Russian oil exports are just beginning to take effect. According to the publication:
- The Russian economy is forecast to experience a significant recession in 2023 and its potential is likely to remain limited over the coming years;
- there is no indication that the sanctions will stop the Russian army or bring economic pressure on the Kremlin to the point of undermining domestic support for the war.
The change in Western thinking about the need to accelerate deliveries to Ukraine has been publicly revealed in recent days in the decisions of the US, UK and Germany to send Western-designed battle tanks to Ukraine, the publication believes.
< p>These tanks, along with other armored vehicles and air defense systems, should help Ukraine not only repel any Russian offensive, but also provide Kyiv with the means to advance deep into the territories temporarily occupied by the Kremlin.
Furthermore, officials note that:< /p>
- People in Europe and the US continue to support military and financial assistance to Ukraine;
- Putin may hope that such support will not be sustainable during the years of war and administration changes in the US and elsewhere ;
- there is concern about the realism of the main goal formulated by supporters of increased military support – a speedy end to the conflict. After all, there is little faith that Putin will ever consider the prospect of ending the war without conquering Ukraine.
Pay attention! The American Institute for the Study of War said that Ukraine could liberate occupied territory if military support from the West is promised. However, they also noted that if Ukraine does not yet have the equipment necessary to launch a counter-offensive, then it may be necessary to wait many weeks until Western tanks arrive in sufficient numbers to support the restoration of efforts.
