Russian President Vladimir Putin no longer hides the purpose of his “special operation”. At the same time, he sets tasks for his fighters that cannot be completed. Let's try to figure out whether there will be a new offensive in the fall.
The presenter of Channel 24Alexey Pechiy. He tried to predict whether we should expect another activity from the enemy, who for a long period of time could not achieve his goals.
Putin admitted to the real goals of the “special operation”, looking for new cannon fodder and puts unrealistic goals for the invaders.Meanwhile, pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories are being postponed, because they are not able to hold them. And this is used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which can liberate the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region. And without fighting. Only under the condition of a successful cleansing of the enemy forces, analysts from the UK suggest. On the other hand, Putin’s new scarecrows may be related to the fact that a new meeting of the Ramstein format will take place on September 8, which could bring life-changing changes for Ukraine.
Is Putin really preparing for a new attack in the fall or winter, or is it more of an attempt to raise the stakes ahead of Europe's tough winter season? And how do the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to liberate Kherson? We'll talk about all this next.
They threaten or actually go on the offensive in autumn
The recent statements and actions of the Kremlin, on the one hand, may indicate that the alleged Russian military machine is preparing for a big war and new offensives already in the fall or winter. But on the other hand, it should be understood that right now Russian support for the war in Ukraine remains at a high level, but there is one “but”. Putin cannot show the same citizens of his lack of power any victories. Therefore, the Kremlin may simply be trying to inflate a wave of victory, they say, we are about to “capture Ukraine in three days” for sure. And this is an attempt to intimidate Ukrainians precisely at a time when our army is intensifying its offensive in the Kherson region. However, let's now, without emotions and facts, analyze what is happening?
The day before, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin visited Kaliningrad, where he spoke to children walking to school. It was traditionally a rather strange speech, where the president of Russia again distinguished himself with some ambiguous turns. But his main message concerned precisely Ukraine.
Putin again convinced schoolchildren that Ukraine did not existbefore the formation of the Soviet Union, and that the alleged goal of Russia’s war against Ukraine is to end the war that has been taking place in the Donbas since 2014 and protect the aggressor country itself. And this last thing about protecting Russia is nothing new. This is a return to what was being heard from the Kremlin before the start of the full-scale phase of the war.
Putin told the children that after the 1917 revolution, the Communist Party transferred to Ukraine, quote: “a significant part of the historical Russian territories, including the Donbass , although the residents of Donbass did not directly want this, there is evidence and documents.”Further, Putin said that allegedly after the Maidan in 2014, it was Ukraine that unleashed a war in the Donbass, and therefore the Russian invaders are now protecting the Donbass and Crimea.
Putin convinces that the war in Ukraine is for the defense of Russia
But further, Putin voiced his main thesis, about which many have forgotten. He assured that, I quote: Russians defend Russia itself, because an anti-Russian enclave threatening our country has begun to be created on the territory of today's Ukraine.
Once again, this is not a new goal of the war at all, it is a repetition of the thesis, which has been for many years, and which the Western world has not noticed for a long time. Let me just remind you that on July 12, 2021, Putin published an article, moreover, in Ukrainian and Russian. In it, he called Ukraine an “anti-Russia” project. I will give you one excerpt from this obsessed Putin's vision of history, and you will understand that on the eve of Putin, he simply voiced what he had repeated many times before: Ukraine must be destroyed.
An excerpt from an article by a crazed dictator about “anti-Russia”
Step by step, Ukraine was drawn into a dangerous geopolitical game, the goal of which is to turn Ukraine into a barrier between Europe and Russia, into a springboard against Russia.Inevitably, the time has come when the concept of “Ukraine is not Russia” no longer suits. What was needed was “anti-Russia”, which we will never put up with. The Western authors of the “anti-Russia” project are setting up the Ukrainian political system in such a way that presidents, deputies, and ministers change, but the orientation towards division with Russia, towards enmity with it, remains unchanged. There is no place for sovereign Ukraine in the “anti-Russia” project, as well as for political forces trying to defend its real independence.
And even earlier, in 2010, the same thesis about ” anti-Russia” voiced in the address of the then President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili. And now Putin is again putting into the heads of Russians the thesis that an anti-Russian enclave is being created in Ukraine.Of course, the dictator does not remember that it was the aggressor country that invaded Ukraine back in 2014. At the same time, he convinces that it was Ukraine that provoked the war with its policy.
And such nonsense still has a lot of support in Russia. After all, according to the Russian Levada Center, the genocide of the Ukrainian people is still supported by 76% of Russians.And most importantly, the greatest support for the war, namely 85%, is among the older generation, which this so-called “new goal” of the war was put into their heads for years. Therefore, do not engage in self-deception. The Russians have wanted to destroy Ukraine for a long time, and this is not a new goal.
Offensive or is this another attempt to launch a powerful IPSO
In general, in recent days, the Kremlin has been trying to attack Ukraine and the West with information.And this is due to the failure to achieve success at the front. Simply put, in Russia they are deliberately launching a new IPSO, which, on the one hand, should completely neutralize the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South of Ukraine in the minds of Russians. But on the other hand, to intimidate Ukraine and the West with the fact that the aggressor country is about to launch a big offensive. Remember the phrase that “Russia hasn't started anything yet”? The fact is that a serious turning point is now taking place in this war, and Putin is trying to hide it.
Washington Post regular columnist Ishaan Tarura today described the situation at the front in one sentence: “Not all is calm on the southeastern front.” And this is true, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine this week launched a counteroffensive in the Kherson region, shrouded in mystery , and the General Staff asks not to disclose the details of the operation. But at the same time, another mystery looms, it seems that our military is preparing for a counteroffensive in the Donbass and the North of Kharkiv region. And this forces the Russians to panic even more.
And this assumption has a logical argument. In recent days, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine strictly limited the access of journalists to the front lines along the entire front line. Now only the military knows the situation at the front. Consequently, the leakage of information about the real offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine became impossible.
Forcing the Russians to be nervous and relative silence of the American and British partners of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
- Pentagon officials this week acknowledged the Ukrainian military's offensive but declined to comment on its scale;
- The UK Department of Defense reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have stepped up artillery fire in southern Ukraine, and also noted that Russian units around Kherson “are not manned composition and rely on weak supply lines”.
In general, a number of analysts conclude that the battles for Kherson will be an important impetus for the liberation of the occupied territoriesnot only in the South. They say that the large-scale supply of weapons from the United States in recent weeks has prepared the necessary ground, Ishaan Tarura notes in his The Washington Post column. day. It says that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South destroyed 5 Russian ammunition depots in the Bashtansky, Berislavsky and Kherson regions. In addition, a drone command post in the Pravdino area and a ferry crossing near Kazatsky were hit. And again I emphasize – in the South, our aviation significantly intensified its work, which means that the air defense and electronic warfare systems were previously cleared.
After such attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the understanding that all logistics, and hence escape routes, under the fire control of the Ukrainian defenders, the occupiers turned out to be extremely demoralized.And the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense is already reporting that, according to intercepts of conversations, the enemies are planning to lay down their weapons en masse. But, I will immediately note that the desire of the occupiers and the desire of the Kremlin are partly different things. Therefore, it is possible that they will simply be forced to stand to the end, although the Russian fighters will suffer huge losses.
Although, on the other hand, the former director general of the Royal Institute of the United Armed Forces, Michael Clarke, said on Sky News, that Ukraine's counter-offensive is going fast and with a big offensive.In his opinion, the Ukrainian military can liberate Kherson from occupation by threatening to cordon off 20,000 Russian military in the region. Like, in the event of a cordon, the Russians will be forced to surrender or retreat.
Of course, this is just a hypothesis, because the real plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are known only to the General Staff. However, there is indirect evidence that the Russian front is crumbling. In particular, despite the preparations for holding pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories, the very date of the so-called voting was again pushed back. Let me remind you that the invaders planned to hold a “declaration of will” in early September.But because of the situation at the front, we are talking about late autumn.
And in this situation, let's remember how the Kremlin began to launch IPSO. Her main message was: allegedly, the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region bogged down, and suffered huge losses on the very first day. The Kremlin deliberately launched information that the alleged offensive of our military is not effective, and some Russian propagandists began to say that this is generally a fake and nothing is happening in the South.
And now Putin is trying in every possible way to give the impression that the Russian army is still capable of something, which means that it is about to go on a real offensive. And physically, the Kremlin is really trying to strengthen itself in all directions. Although, on the other hand, such actions look chaotic, because in the aggressor country there is a lot of talk about the introduction of the newly formed 3rd Army Corps into the war. But it can hardly be called a reinforcement, because in parallel, two brigades are being disbanded at once, having suffered significant losses.
And now the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine declares that Russian troops received Putin's order to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region by September 15. Although this will be practically impossible to implement, Alexei Gromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is sure. Putin's attempts to strengthen the army are futile
The Institute for the Study of War believes that right now Putin is trying to create an information ground for the creation of additional units for the offensive already in the fall and winter. It is known that the Russians continue to deploy additional units to Crimea, which can probably be sent to the South or East of mainland Ukraine. But, according to experts, these forces are still not enough for offensive operations. After all, the same 3rd Army Corps, which has been scaring for several weeks, according to various estimates, it is no more than 15 thousand military men.
This means that Russia is experiencing a frank shortage of personnel. Putin did not just voice his old thesis to schoolchildren in Kaliningrad that that an “anti-Russian enclave” is being formed in Ukraine. The dictator used the same thesis to launch a full-scale invasion, and this allowed the Russians to be mobilized. Now, it seems that the president of Russia, realizing the failure, is trying to start all over again. Therefore, with his statement, he is trying once again to push the Russians to certain death in Ukraine. The main motivator for them should be the fact that it is Russia that is threatened in this war.
Also raise the degree of tension the aggressor country is trying with military exercises. The fact is that the day before, the Kremlin began the Vostok-22 exercises in the Southern Military District, where Putin himself went. In conditions of war, this supposedly should demonstrate the power of the Russian army. But, British intelligence claims that:
- firstly, Russia was unable to gather the required number of military personnel to participate in the exercises,
- secondly, such exercises are more likely not about the military component, but about the Kremlin's attempts to impress the Russians and the West.< /li>
The Kremlin is also trying to create a threatening situation from the territory of Belarus. The henchman country announced the day before that immediately after the end of the Vostok-22 exercises, command and staff exercises would be held on its territory from September 8. They will prepare for “the liberation of territories temporarily captured by the enemy.” It is known that the Russian military and the CSTO member countries will take part in the exercises.
Attention! The Ukrainian military does not rule out that the so-called “lost territory” refers to the border areas of the Volyn, Rivne and Zhytomyr regions. But the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assured that they were ready for any course of events. >Lukashenko joined the large-scale IPSO of the Kremlin.He stated that allegedly a conflict is brewing between the political leadership of Ukraine and the military. Like, the Armed Forces of Ukraine see the futility of the offensive, which means it will put pressure on Zelensky to make concessions. According to the dictator from Belarus, Russia cannot lose, and Ukraine itself is divided into parts. For example, Poland “encroaches” on the western regions. That is, he repeated the theses that sounded the same at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
But there is another reason why Putin launched an information wave about “anti-Russia”, and why he threatens with weapons during the exercises. He does all this in order to try to prove to the West that the struggle of Ukraine is futile. Like, he still has a lot of strength. The fact is that the UN Security Council has already scheduled three meetings on Ukraine for September. And on September 8, Germany will host a new meeting of Ukraine's partners in the Ramstein format. Consequently, the support of our state will only grow against the background of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South. Therefore, this will only bring very bad news to Putin.
