Russia's attempts to de facto annex Belarus create strategic risks for the United States of America, the North Atlantic bloc and Ukraine.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
RF attempts to annex Belarus threaten the security of the US, NATO and Ukraine
ISW analysts note that Moscow's efforts to de facto annex Belarus within the Union State, although not yet complete, have already achieved significant success. Therefore, this requires NATO to reassess the consequences of Russia's strengthening control over Belarus, as well as the capabilities and resources that Russia can use against the United States, NATO and Ukraine as a result.
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According to ISW experts, Belarus is not just an ally of Russia. The Kremlin is turning Belarus into a strategic partner that helps Russia extend its power around the world.
The Institute for the Study of War suggests that the Kremlin will use its recent but deeply rooted gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, to speed up Russia's recovery from the war in Ukraine, and to help Russia prepare for future wars faster than it could on its own.
— Policymakers must begin planning for a future in which Belarus is not just a captive country, but a de facto extension of the Russian Federation, ISW analysts noted.
And they added that Russia's efforts to de facto annex Belarus are a government-wide effort. This paper examines three key areas of Russian efforts: the Kremlin's efforts to integrate Russia and Belarus militarily, politically, and economically.
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the Kremlin's desired set of measures for integration with Belarus is so broad and comprehensive in many aspects that it is more difficult to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus if it succeeds than to list what Moscow will control.
— Russia's attempt to de facto annex Belarus, although not yet complete, is at an advanced stage and has already reached stages that pose a security threat to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, as well as an existential threat to the continued existence of Belarus as a sovereign state.
Russia does not need to achieve additional integration successes in Belarus to threaten the West. Russia's current set of military, political, and economic integration achievements in Belarus since 2020 already pose a threat to the West that policymakers must take into account, ISW analysts summarized.
