Russians are bringing in reserves to support offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, –ISW

ISW explained the situation at the front/Collage 24 Channel

The Russian occupiers are drawing on reserves to maintain and increase the pace of ongoing offensive operations. For this, Russia is attracting tactical and operational reserves.

Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets wrote on March 14 that the occupier command is allocating reserves for the Russian offensive Liman direction, near Bakhmut, in the West and South-West of the Donetsk region. By such actions the occupiers are trying to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from stabilizing the front line in these territories.

ISW analyzed the actions of the Russians

Konstantin Mashovets explained that:

• Russia is abandoning reserves that were intended to exploit the expected Russian breakthrough of Ukrainian defenses, and not to support ongoing offensive operations against the stabilization of Ukrainian Armed Forces positions;
• the enemies still have reserves to further intensify offensive operations, but they will not be enough to destroy the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russian forces have attempted to achieve more than incremental minor tactical gains in Ukraine since mid-2022, and the introduction of tactical or even limited operational reserves does not in itself change Russia's prospects for operationally significant gains, since Russian forces have not yet demonstrated the ability to carry out sophisticated mechanized maneuvers that would allow the rapid capture of large swaths of territory, the ISW said.

However, analysts explained that so far:

• Russia's ability to achieve significant achievements still depends on the level of Western support for Ukraine, and long delays in Western security assistance will increase the risk of significant operational gains by the Kremlin in the long term; more vulnerable than the relatively slow advance of enemies in various sectors indicates.

“The well-resourced Ukrainian troops have proven that they strong>could prevent Russian forces from achieving even minor gains during large-scale Russian offensive operations, and there is no reason to doubt that Defense Forces, provided sufficient Western assistance security will be able to stabilize the current situation on the front line,” said ISW analysts.

They also clarified that in the spring of 2024 the weather will be difficult and terrain may limit effective mechanized maneuver on both sides of the line of contact.

Analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War explained that this would further limit the ability of Russian forces to achieve significant tactical successes.

Russian forces may also be trying to maintain the momentum of their offensive operations until the spring of 2024, despite difficult weather and terrain conditions, trying to exploit the shortage of Ukrainian military personnel funds before the promised Western security assistance arrives in Ukraine, ISW is convinced.

They also explained that the occupiers are preparing for a new offensive in late May – summer 2024 of the year. It is Western military assistance, ISW is convinced, that will play a significant role in determining the prospects for these efforts.