High-ranking Russian security officials probably believe that Russia needs to intensify the war against Ukraine, rather than seek a way out through negotiations.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes about this.
Thus, the security forces do not intend to abandon the war due to large losses. Analysts, recalling the Meduza article, assure that although Russia has certain tactical, but not operational successes. In particular, the occupiers have not made significant territorial advances, so the efforts are not proportional — the enemy is losing more in manpower and equipment than it gains in the war against Ukraine.
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Russian security forces are not ready to abandon the war due to large losses
ISW notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory is based on accepting such losses as long as his forces continue to advance in Ukraine. At the same time, analysts note, in December 2024, the average daily pace of Russian advancement slowed by about 9 square kilometers, after three consecutive months of increasing territorial gains and personnel losses in September, October and November.
That is why the Russian military command may be less willing than Putin to bear such high losses if the pace of Russian army advance continues to slow. At the same time, the Russian military and security forces do not seem ready to abandon the war because of such losses.
Moreover, they want Putin to intensify Russia's military efforts through an additional partial call-up of reservists. They also believe that martial law should be officially declared in the Russian Federation. Most likely, the military hopes that the battlefield will be filled with manpower and equipment.
According to analysts, the Kremlin dictator is resisting the implementation of a partial forced call-up of reservists or further mobilization of the Russian economy, because such decisions would not be approved by the population of the aggressor country and would further exacerbate the issue of labor shortages and the economic situation in Russia.
At the same time, it is not yet clear whether the group of Russian military and security agencies calling for further mobilization of the labor force and the economy will be able to convince Putin to take more radical measures to provide Russian troops in the war against Ukraine.
However, analysts suggest that the growing losses of personnel, as well as problems with the implementation of voluntary recruitment of people for the war, may force Putin to carry out an involuntary partial call-up in the near future reservists.
