Official Russian military and political authorities have not publicly reported the number of their casualties in killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. However, as The Economist magazine writes, which cites various sources, there is evidence that the Russian Federation has recently overcome a new milestone and Russian losses amount to 462 to 728 thousand military personnel.
Number of Russians killed in the Russian war against Ukraine
The magazine has compiled several graphs, which rely on estimates of Russian losses by independent publications, as well as calculations and information leaks from official Western defense departments.
So, the first graph shows estimates from official and unofficial sources over time.
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Data: BBC Russia, CIA, CSIS, Pentagon, British Ministry of Defense, representatives of France, Mediazone, Meduza/Infographics: The Economist
According to the latest data published on July 5 by the Russian opposition media Mediazona and Meduza, the death toll in Russia exceeded 100 thousand people, and by June 21 it ranged from 106 thousand to 140 thousand people. As The Economist notes, much of the analysis carried out by Mediazona and Meduza was based on records of probate cases and obituaries on social networks and other publications. However, their data, obtained since February 6, is based on trends, since access to official documents has been limited, the magazine notes.
However, data from opposition Russian media is consistent with other recent sources, as officials in France recently put a total figure of 150 thousand Russian military deaths by May, and BBC Russia estimates that at least 113 thousand Russians died by June. < /p>
Losses of the Russian army in the war with Ukraine
Graph No. 2, presented by The Economist, also displays estimates from Mediazona and Meduza publications, but here the data is presented in dynamics — by week. According to their assessment, there are noticeable jumps in Russian losses during the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 and during the battles for Avdiivka and Chasov Yar.
Dani: Mediazone, Meduza/Infographics: The Economist
— These data do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia in the occupied territories. They also do not include Russian soldiers who were seriously wounded and unable to return to battle, — writes The Economist.
According to the magazine's rough calculations, based on leaked documents from the US Department of Defense, “for every one killed in battle, approximately three to four Russian soldiers were wounded”.
— This means that by mid-June between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action — larger than the estimated Russian invasion force in February 2022, — writes the publication.
At the same time, according to French and British officials, by May, about 500 thousand Russians were seriously wounded or killed.
The impact of Russian losses on the demography of the Russian Federation
Graph No. 3 shows the impact of Russian losses on the demographic situation in Russia. As the magazine notes, the greatest losses were suffered by people aged 35 to 39 years, 27 thousand of whom are estimated to have been killed between February 2022 and June 2024.
However, as a percentage of the male population of Russia, the most severe losses were among people aged 45 to 49 years.
Date: UN, Mediazona, Meduza/Infographics: The Economist
According to the latest estimates, approximately 2% of all Russian men aged 20 to 50 years have been killed or seriously wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
Russia's Biggest Losses Since WWII
The last chart (see chart #4) puts Russia's loss data into historical context, demonstrating that Russia's losses in Ukraine since 2022 exceed the number of casualties in all of its wars since WWII combined.
Data: CSIS, Mediazone, Meduza/Infographics: The Economist
— Despite this, Western officials and analysts believe that heavy losses are unlikely to affect Russia's manpower supply in the near to medium term: in June, the New York Times reported that American officials believed the country could recruit between 25,000 and 30 thousand soldiers per month, — notes The Economist.
As the British magazine notes, the number of casualties on both sides will continue to rise in the future, although July 2024 was one of the most intense since the start of a full-scale war.
Recall that according to the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces, the total number of Russian losses as of the morning of July 7, 2024 is about 550,990 people. Over the past 24 hours, Russian losses have increased by another 1,150 occupiers, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported.
