In the run-up to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin was expecting an early success. The Russian army, modernized in the last decade and emboldened by campaigns in Ukraine and Syria, was confident in using force abroad.
However, Russian victory did not come. Instead, the Russian army suffered extremely heavy casualties: U.S. officials estimate Russian casualties at more than 100,000.
The Russian army, amid losses, is moving into a long-term war
The Russian army has lost thousands of armored vehicles and several squadrons of fighters and helicopters, having used up a significant part of its precision strike weapons and artillery shells.
“Any finesse or operational skill in doctrine has given way to brute force and repetitive attacks. It's hard to recognize the Russian military as it was a year ago. But that doesn't stop it,” writes a senior political researcher for the analytics in an op-ed for the New York Times. RAND Corporation Center Dara Massicot, a former Russian military capabilities analyst with the US Department of Defense.
The Russian army has suffered massive casualties and is moving into long-term warfare despite undersupply and the need for longer training.
Last September, Russia mobilized 300,000 people to replenish its personnel. Old samples from the strategic reserves are being used to replace lost equipment.
The Kremlin has also increased defense budgets and ordered the production of defense equipment to be accelerated. The Russian army is defeated, but Russia is not going to stop and plans to continue the war.
What does the change from Surovikin to Gerasimov mean
Massicot writes that the danger of such determination is obvious. Russian forces in eastern Ukraine continue their offensive, which may last until early summer. They have already occupied some territory, but the Ukrainian will to fight and Western support have minimized their success.
The Russian strategy includes missile strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, but this also makes it harder for them to counteroffensive. The Kremlin removed General Sergei Surovikin, who led the transition to the defensive, and appointed General Valery Gerasimov, who favors an offensive approach.
Having taken this step, the Kremlin apparently decided that an offensive approach was more desirable than a defensive one. Even if the forces are shaky, and the stocks of equipment are depleted.
And this is a problem: the Russian forces are now poorly equipped for the offensive and they need time to prepare. But General Gerasimov does not think so. Within weeks of his appointment, he ordered local attacks in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions to bring them under full Russian occupation and tie up Ukrainian forces in other areas. writes the RAND expert.
The Russian army is using a brutal tactic of conducting repetitive mechanized attacks in some areas and “human waves” attacks in others.
In other words, the Russian army's infantry is used to provoke fire from Ukrainian forces during the defense, which allows revealing Ukrainian positions, which are then fired upon by Russian artillery.
This tactic resulted in a high death toll among the Russian military, the highest since the invasion began. Recently, some mobilized Russian soldiers, aware of their use as “cannon fodder”, have begun to openly appeal to officials to ask for pardon.
Russian tactics have brought minimal success
Despite its simplicity, Russian tactics have already brought some results. Some Ukrainian positions, for example, in Bakhmut, are under serious pressure, which is growing every day.
Russian forces are also actively attacking Kremennaya in the Luhansk region, where Ukrainian officials say the situation remains tense. On the southern front, Russia is focusing on building defensive lines, especially in the Zaporozhye region, worrying about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian military aviation continues to carry out missile strikes, which is increasingly depleting Ukrainian air defense.
Russia still has manpower that can be mobilized as early as this year. But the results of this approach will be limited, since the equipment is in varying degrees of wear and tear. In addition, new soldiers will have to learn for several months, which will take a lot of time and effort.
Without the mobilization of even more men and the withdrawal of equipment from the reserve for entire battalions, it will be very difficult to launch a new attack in the north-east of Ukraine, for example, in the Kharkiv region. A new attack on Kyiv now seems beyond Russian capabilities, writes Massicot.
Although the capabilities of the Russian army have decreased, the command continues to send troops to the front line, regardless of their readiness. The ongoing offensive has resulted in a significant number of casualties, but the Russian leadership continues to be tolerant of this.
However, after the end of the current stage of the Russian offensive, it may become obvious that the military lacks the training of commanders, sergeants, junior officers, logistics and others specialists who became the first victims of the war.
“The transmission of the engine of the Russian army is broken. Squeezing the gas pedal with the help of barely trained men and old tanks will not allow you to switch to the highest gear,” the expert explains.
However, Putin shows no signs of willingness to abandon the war. He seems ready to sacrifice the lives of Russian men and destroy the Russian future in order to achieve at least something. For Ukraine, which needs urgent and significant support, this is deadly stubbornness.
