Russia will not survive this war: there is only one reasonable solution for the Kremlin/Getty Images
No one imagined on February 24-25 that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would continue for so long – three months have passed, and there is no end in sight. At that time, almost all analysts, and indeed the Russian government itself, were waiting for the surrender of Ukraine in a few days.
Nothing of the kind happened. Russian troops had to retreat, having completely cleared the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions at the end of March.
The Kremlin had to abandon plans
The retreat from Kharkov, which began at the end of April, continues. Nikolaev failed to take. Odessa – even more so. The plans to occupy the area between the Dniester and the Danube (Izmail, Akkerman) and develop military success in Transnistria, covering Odessa from the West, apparently had to be abandoned due to a lack of forces and the dominance of Ukrainian anti-ship systems over the sea.
Mariupol fell after 84 days of defense, but this success, expected on the third or fourth day of the war, changed little strategically.
Active and very heavy fighting is going on in the Donbass. These battles are either reminiscent of the Kursk-Oryol Bulge, where the German offensive fizzled out and failed, or the endless battles in northeastern France during the four years of the First World War – battles that bled the Central Powers and ended in their crushing defeat on foreign territory. Germany signed the Compiègne capitulation when not a single Entente soldier was on her soil.
Russia will not survive this war
There is no reason to expect that Russia, already exhausted by the war and in complete isolation, will withstand this difficult positional war and, moreover, achieve victorious success in it. The anti-Putin coalition of countries supporting Ukraine is growing. Now there are 47 of them. And Putin's only ally is Lukashenka.
Mainland China is deathly afraid of falling under sanctions as devastating as those already under Russia. These sanctions would mean for China the closure of thousands of Western factories located in China and, accordingly, unemployment for tens of millions of citizens.
Popular uprisings for the Celestial Empire are a common thing, as well as the change of dynasties. And the Chinese Communists know this very well. So they are cautious, and they are only one-third of Russia's ally. The unanimity of the democratic world in confronting Russia in Ukraine forced “Chairman Xi” to shelve plans to annex Taiwan. If the West had been divided and indifferent to aggression in Ukraine, Taiwan would most likely have lost its independence by the end of May.
Rejection of Russian oil, and it is likely to happen among democratic states in the coming days , will hurt the Russian economy, which receives up to one billion dollars a day from these sales. There is nowhere to expect compensation.
The war against Ukraine was a mistake, Zubov emphasized/Photo by Getty Images
NATO expansion in the northeast is unlikely to seriously affect the current war, but will certainly become another political loss for Russia, which has suddenly lost its old and reliable economic partners and friends – Finland and Sweden.
It is unlikely that Erdogan will be able to prevent the expansion of NATO. Rather, he will greatly damage his reputation by showing indifference to the security of his potential allies and extreme selfishness at a time when other peoples sacrifice a lot to support Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.
Even if Putin influenced Turkey's position, promising her in exchange for a veto regarding the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, some preferences in Syria, which Russia is still unable to keep further due to the need for forces and means on the Ukrainian front, then, facing an alternative – Syria or NATO, Erdogan will solve it, as always, elegantly, “in the Ottoman way” – he will take Syria – where should Putin go – and will not break with NATO, in the end agreeing to expand the organization.
Even more, the same can be said about Orban and the EU. Russia is now too unattractive to sacrifice membership in important and promising organizations for its sake.
3 months of war
And so, after three months of the war – heavy fighting in the Donbass, huge losses and complete isolation. Victory prospects, both military and diplomatic, are not visible. Even local successes – the withdrawal of Russian troops to the western borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions – do not give anything strategically.
The second line of defense of the Ukrainian army has been prepared for a long time and is being improved every day, new and more powerful weapons arrive in Ukraine from the West, reservists undergo intensive training. And the motivation to fight the aggressor does not disappear among Ukrainians in the exhaustion of the war, but only intensifies.
It will not be possible to fix an eternal truce on the ceasefire line – as in Korea and largely due to the sad experience of Korea – here it will not be possible. Moreover, in Korea there was still a civil war, but here it was a classic interstate war, and the aggressor had long been condemned by the UN General Assembly.
Now I see for Russia not the prospect of victory, but the prospect of extreme depletion of both human, military and economic resources without hope for their early renewal, even if the Ukrainian army does not go on the offensive in the foreseeable future in the Donbass.
And if, having quickly accumulated the resources necessary for the offensive, he will switch? If the current Donbass turns into the Kursk-Oryol arc, and not endless battles on the Marne? Then the danger of defeat and even collapse of the military-political mechanism of Russia increases many times.
In these circumstances, I would consider it the only reasonable thing for the current leadership of Russia (whom I do not sympathize with at all, but I wish the best for my country) to recognize the decision to start a war with Ukraine as erroneous, immediately sit down at the negotiating table and be ready to make big concessions in order to save the rest.
This is what any reasonable ruler in any country in any era would have done. This is what Stalin's successors did in the Korean War, starting a conversation about peace already at the funeral of the tyrant, this is what Alexander II did when he was convinced at the end of 1855 by wise advisers that the continuation of the war with a coalition of powers would turn into a complete disaster for Russia.
In both cases, it was the right decision that opened the way for reforms, the return of our country to the world community and, more broadly, to a decent existence for both the state and its citizens, as far as the system allowed.
Stubborn defending an erroneous decision has never brought anyone to good. It will not lead to anything good this time either. There are also historical examples of this, including in Russian history.
