Russia will not be able to indefinitely suffer such large losses for limited successes, – ISW

Russia will not be able to indefinitely suffer such great losses for the sake of limited successes, – ISW Yulia Murina

Russian invaders will not be able to indefinitely suffer such large losses in the war against Ukraine, especially for limited successes.

This was reported by Channel 24 with reference to analysts from ISW – the American Institute for the Study of War.

ISW on Russia's huge losses

Earlier, ISW cited data indicating that the occupiers have lost at least 5 divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsky district alone since October 2023.

Analysts suggest that the Russian invaders have probably accumulated a large amount of equipment in priority areas of the front. However, the dwindling stockpiles of Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles and the current pace of armored vehicle production are likely to make such losses unsustainable in the long term.

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said on October 31 that the occupiers are losing about 1,200 fighters a day, or about 36,000 a month. ISW has recently seen signs that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to replace losses at the front.

Speaking at the Valdai Club on November 7, Putin acknowledged Russia's persistent labor shortage and its reliance on migrants to meet the problem. Analysts noted that the aggressor country also relies on forcing migrants to join the army to meet its labor needs.

The Russian army will almost certainly not be able to sustain daily casualties of more than 1,200 indefinitely while Putin tries to avoid another forced call-up of reservists, the Institute for the Study of War noted.

They also added that even forced mobilization of reservists will not solve the bigger problem that the dictator is obviously facing – finding enough people to work in Russian industries and at the same time “feed” the front.

By the way, some Russian mibloggers continue to complain about disproportionately high losses of personnel. Analysts note that broader discontent with casualties in Russia's ultra-nationalist milblogger community could also affect the dictator's calculations going forward.

A former Russian “Storm-Z” instructor and milblogger complained on November 8 that it takes at least six months to train stormtroopers, but the Russian military command views them as “meat” that does not require a high level of training and whose main task is to “catch drones and shrapnel.”

The milblogger claimed that Russian infantry casualties are high due to the Russian tactic of sending small assault groups in several successive waves in an attempt to suppress Ukrainian forces.

By the way, the Russian milblogger called this enemy tactic “stupid” and “inappropriately organized.” He also concluded that Russia's successes “do not appear proportionate to the irretrievably wasted resources, both human and material.”

The Russian milblogger community also recently criticized the deaths of specialized drone operators, who were sent to assaults by commanders as punishment.

“The constant use of Russian military personnel, especially specialized troops, in disorganized, highly exhausting, infantry-based “meat” assaults that result in disproportionately small gains may continue to anger the milblogger community, a group toward which the Kremlin has demonstrated its particularly sensitive position,” ISW noted.