According to analysts, Vladimir Putin will order a second wave of mobilization after January 15th. At the same time, the occupiers are planning to conduct active battles, in particular, in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions. And this should reduce the likelihood of their offensive from the territory of Belarus.
Everything that Russia is doing now in terms of preparing and waging war will not stop Ukraine in its desire to liberate its territories. Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, told Channel 24 about this. According to him, such actions of the enemy allow us to explain to our partners that Russia wants to “grave” a large number of Russian citizens. But we don't care.
The question is how to fight, not by whom
The adviser to the head of the President's Office stressed that we are having a huge, full-fledged, intense war, and it has many directions – Kherson, Zaporozhye, and in particular the northern one – near the borders with Belarus. To do this, it is important to consider several factors.
- First, we need to follow all directions – the military and intelligence do this.
- Secondly, mobilization in Russia did not stop – they had a conscription, covert mobilization, partial continued – and now continues.
The question is not the number of mobilized people – they already have a large army, numbering, according to their statements, 1 million 17 thousand people. But the problem is whether the mobilized receive coordination, ammunition, weapons. And all this is very scarce in Russia,” he said.
Podolyak stressed that the enemy also has problems with the combat capability of their shells, missiles, and drones.
“In Russia, the question on the agenda is how to fight, and not who. During this time, they even lost instructors who were supposed to coordinate these mobilized and make them more or less combat-ready units,” he assured.
- Third, Russia claims to have a mobilization resource of 30 million. But this is an element of a large information campaign that should intimidate us.
We try to minimize losses
According to Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine seeks to minimize losses during the counteroffensive, and for this we need:
- armored vehicles in large numbers: not 20 or 50, but 500 – 700 tanks and armored personnel carriers. This will allow us to move quickly through the occupied territory;
- certain missiles of a certain range. It should be 100 plus kilometers, and preferably 200 plus kilometers.
“Thus, we will very quickly destroy the remnants of the Russians’ logistical infrastructure, thanks to which they are fighting. We will also destroy everything that allows Russia to kill our military. The enemy will be completely demoralized and will run away from our territory,” he said.
The weapon is already “tired” of killing
In fact, the occupiers are already fleeing Ukrainian soil: the Wagner PMC, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, fled from Bakhmut after many unsuccessful attempts to capture the city.
Prigozhin believed that he knew how to fight, that he would catch up with 10-40 thousand prisoners, who would go in the first wave and fill up the territory of our defensive lines with corpses. And after that, the “Wagnerites” will come in with the third or fourth wave and say, look how you need to fight,” said the adviser to the head of the President’s Office.
In his opinion, Prigozhin is not a strategist, not a tactician, he is a “caliph for an hour.” He understands that he will no longer have a chance to take something somewhere, for example, the position of some minister. And for this he is ready to sacrifice the lives of a large number of prisoners.
“But convicts don’t know how to fight, there are just too many of them. Our weapons are already “tired” of killing them,” he stressed.
Mikhail Podolyak noted that Ukraine does not care what Russia is doing. It is important for us when we get together with our partners all the nomenclature of military capabilities.
What is known about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
- Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov stressed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out offensives every day. He explained that attacks are different. The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, spoke about a big offensive in the spring, but details have not yet been disclosed. Danilov noted that the enemy would not wait for this.
- In the coming weeks, Arctic air masses will enter the territory of Ukraine, which will entail a sharp drop in temperature. After that, we can expect the movement of our troops to the main strategic task – access to the Azov coast.
- According to Alexander Musiyenko, head of the Center for Military Legal Research, our military-political leadership has plans for a counteroffensive. They are versatile – suggest different scenarios for the development of events. However, under each counter-offensive plan, one can “draw a line and reach a common denominator” – additional forces and means are needed to implement it. First of all, weapons from our partners.
