I give my consolation forecasts for 2023. The stock of Russia's economic fortress has dried up. So 2023 will be a sobering year for the enemy.
The ruble will fall lower and lower
We will witness constant “successful regroupings” of the ruble at ever lower levels against the dollar.
If at the beginning of December the dollar exchange rate was 61 rubles, then on December 29 it “regrouped” to 74 rubles. Now the currency is not enough even for reduced imports.
But the most interesting is ahead:
- From February 5, Europe stops buying Russian oil products. There will be another decrease in foreign exchange earnings;
- The price ceiling for oil will be reviewed every two months. Its level should be 5% below the market price. So the ceiling will be more and more pressed to the floor;
- even at $70 per barrel, the 2023 budget would have a deficit of 3 trillion rubles. What kind of deficit will be at a price of 55 – 57 dollars, no one in the Russian government has yet calculated so as not to upset the bunker grandfather.
How NWF rubles turned into paper money
To cover the deficit, the Russians will use the National Welfare Fund. His funds were backed by currency in the accounts of the Central Bank. Now the currency is under sanctions and frozen. This turned rubles into the NWF on paper. Their spending is tantamount to printing money.
Little currency and a lot of printed paper – a recipe for a fascinating spectacle. We love this.
