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The Kremlin considered two scenarios for subsequent military operations after the “victory” over Ukraine. the Russians wanted to continue their movement to the West, entering into a confrontation with NATO countries.
After Ukraine, Russian aggression could expand towards the Baltic countries or from Moldova and Romania. This Channel 24 was told by the head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko.
“Cold shower” changed the Kremlin's plans
< p>The expert noted that the war against Ukraine has become a “cold shower” for Putin. He believes that if Russia had succeeded in the initial plan to quickly seize and absorb Ukraine through occupation, or install a puppet pro-Kremlin regime, it would have gone further.
They certainly went further, that's quite obvious. This success would only inspire and inspire them. If they defeated Ukraine, who would be next – there are two options here. The first option is the Baltic countries, the second option is to create problems for Romania through Moldova,” the analyst explained.
He believes that under the second scenario, Romania would be the target, since the Kremlin takes Hungary's “special” position very seriously. Budapest, according to him, acts in the interests of Russia, starting, in particular, to raise issues of the rights of Hungarians in Romania.
“This would be another way to split the unity of NATO. Such plans were being prepared somewhere and we even heard about them when General Minnekaev let it slip… He said at a briefing that Russia's plans in the South are the creation of a “land corridor” to the unrecognized Transnistria, Musienko continued.
In his opinion, this would lead to a conflict with Moldova and a potential conflict with Romania.
“This is one of the plans that he let slip, and which was relevant in Russia at the beginning of April. To date, I think it has already lost its relevance,” the observer emphasized.
He was preparing to fight NATO: watch the video
Who is the most ready for war with Russia
The expert also assessed the ability of European countries to resist Russian aggression. In his opinion, Romania and Poland are the most ready countries in close proximity to Russia. they declare it… The Poles also perfectly understood the existing challenges and threats. They were preparing in the same way,” the analyst explained.
Musienko added that Romania's readiness is explained by the fact that since the mid-2000s, official Bucharest has systematically implemented programs from the United States and received a large amount of weapons from them.
“The Romanian military was trained with American units, they have a good air defense system, American tanks received. They really constantly finance their security system, they even built up the fleet. I think that this is a country that can really be ready,” the expert said.
Northern and Western Europe
According to Musienko, among Western countries, Norway shows the greatest readiness to resist the Kremlin.
“Norway has always prepared for various threats. Because of the direct border in the north, they developed their fleet and their capabilities in boats and aviation. In general , all northern countries are more or less ready, in particular, Denmark has signed a contract for the purchase of the F-35,” the analyst said.
At the same time, he noted that the issue of readiness of Western Europe is “very complex “.
The question here is who could. Perhaps, except for Britain – no one. The French themselves admitted that they would not have been ready to face such a threat and such a quantity of artillery coming from Russia. The Germans – we are well aware of their state of affairs. Italy is a country with aviation, a fleet – the country is partially ready. Therefore, Britain and the countries of the North are the most prepared, the expert emphasized.
Which countries may be under attack
The observer believes that Slovakia and the Baltic countries are the most vulnerable to Moscow's aggressive plans today.
“Slovakia is the most vulnerable, despite the relief and conditions for defense. Why do I speak for it, and not for the Baltic countries? Because they have a neighbor in the South that is not quite predictable and supposed – Hungary. If there was a potential conflict between Russia and NATO, it remains to be seen how the Hungarians would behave,” Musienko said.
He is convinced that today Budapest is acting alone, so it is not known who he would support in a potential war between Russia and NATO.
The Baltic countries are vulnerable, but they would have what the Ukrainian people demonstrated – they would take up arms and go on the defensive as long as resources would allow, – the analyst concluded.
The threat of Russia to NATO countries: what is known
- Russia has repeatedly threatened the Baltic countries that they could be next after the “capture” of Ukraine. However, the United States says that the answer will be immediately, as soon as a fragment of a Russian missile falls on their territory.
- NATO intends to strengthen its military presence on the eastern flank. Meanwhile, Turkey is seeking to negotiate with the United States on the supply of F-16 fighters.
- In early August, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia's advance had stopped again, and Ukraine had demonstrated the ability to respond and repel its territory from Russian troops . He also stressed that NATO has two tasks to avoid a collision with Russia.
