Grozev on the Kremlin's plans/nv.ua
< strong _ngcontent-sc83="">Once the real losses of the enemy in the war with Ukraine are made public, it will be almost impossible for the Kremlin to replenish the necessary number of troops for a long-term war.
Investigative journalist Khristo Grozev told the BBC his assessment of the duration of the Russian war against Ukraine and what can be expected from the enemy in the near future.
According to the journalist, the Kremlin can continue this war, but not on the territory Kyiv region and in the west of Ukraine, but only in the east and south. To do this, the Russian Federation will have to organize mobilization or add at least 150-200 thousand people to those fighters that are now in some other way.
This can't be done simply on a contract basis unless “conscripts” are intimidated into signing contracts. But all this will lead to political upheavals,” Grozev said.
The Bulgarian media expert believes that the war can be continued until the end of the year. Russia lost about 15% of its fighters and helicopters in the war with Ukraine, but still they have 85% left, and they are ready for the offensive. Grozev said that the Russian Federation still has a lot of equipment, but the country does not have enough officers and soldiers.
Bellingcat investigators estimate that the Russians have already lost almost 30% of battalion tactical groups, which is a huge share.
From a political point of view, the answer will be somewhat different. Grozev thinks that in a few months mothers will find out about the number of their sons and husbands who will not return from the war. It is noted that in Russia, the loss of such a number has always led to a social crisis.
Therefore, I think that it will be almost impossible for the Kremlin to replenish the required number of troops when real losses at the front are made public. I expect this to happen within a month,” Grozev added.
The new strategy for the offensive against Ukraine will most likely not include a return point to Kyiv. This is one of the real and important factors. “But, on the other hand, how ready they are to continue fighting for parts of the south and east depends on the internal political developments that we will be watching.”
