Russia is shaky, it can be blackouted: interview with Mikhail Podolyak

Russia is shaky, it can be blackouted: an interview with Mikhail Podolyak Ekaterina Solyar Oksana Kharkovska

Russians have experienced more frequent power outages, interruptions in communication and the Internet. All this can be scaled up even more, because the Russian economy is shaky and its condition is much worse than they say.

Adviser to the head of the President's Office Ukraine at In an exclusive interview with Channel 24, he emphasized that this requires sanctions to have a different form. More about this, the borders of 1991 and more – read further in the material. Russia is not the borders of 1991 fate”>Losing to Russia is not the borders of 1991

In the information space of Ukraine, estimates appear that 66% of Ukrainians believe in a military victory over Russia, while 16% have the opposite opinion, 18% are undecided at all. Thoughts are increasingly being heard about whether we need the 1991 borders. How do you feel about such thoughts?

Calm down, because this is a well-known psychological trap that people often fall into. They transfer their fears and logic to the actions of the aggressor. It seems to them that we are a victim, that we are ready to give something and thus encourage the aggressor, who has not resolved his issues, to stop. This is a classic, giving away is a scaled-up manifestation of Stockholm Syndrome. But the aggressor will get a small share of what he wants. Why should he stop?

The aggressor attacks, attacks the victim on its territory, seizes part of this territory and says that it wants to control this territory completely. At the same time, you (the victim – Channel 24) must agree to the ultimatum demands.

The aggressor at this moment ceases to be the side that lost. There is no longer any chance that he will lose this war. He will already consider himself a winner and will not be responsible for large-scale crimes. Despite this, the aggressor has not solved his problem, then why should he stop? Why do people think that the aggressor will think like us?

This is a well-known psychological trap that people who have been under stress and crisis often fall into. They respond irrationally to questions about their opponent's motivation. It seems to them that the opponent thinks like Ukraine – we are all tired of war here, it’s hard for us and the like.

However, we must understand that these are generally opposite concepts. Ukraine is a country that has been attacked. Under international law, we are a country fighting a defensive war. And on the other hand, a country that is waging an aggressive war, nullifying international law and not observing any conventions that describe the way of warfare.

Not only is Russia attacking the country without justification, it is also demonstratively violating the rules of war, in particular in relation to prisoners of war, with the civilian population in occupied territories, by attacks on civilian objects, infrastructure, and the use of prohibited types of weapons.< /p>

I want to understand people's logic. If you think that we do not need the 1991 borders, then why do you think that Russia will be satisfied with the minimum, and not with the implementation of all its subsequent plans. If the killer came to kill and take everything, but managed to defend a part and defend his right to life, then why do you think that a killer who is not punished will not continue his expansion. Where does this illusion come from?

This illusion, by the way, concerns not only Ukraine. The position of the Ukrainians is clear to me, because it is emotionally difficult to be in a state of war, to experience a war, regardless of where you are. However, if you are on the territory of Ukraine, then you pay the corresponding price for the state of war – a different standard of living, stress, constant threats, constant expectations that someone close to you may die, and the like.

Of course, there is a completely different emotional state in countries that are not at war, that support Ukraine. They also say that we are tired, but these are different motivations.

What goals did Russia set for itself and did not achieve:

• destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity of Ukraine, erase it all from history;
• partially kill or deport people who identify themselves as Ukrainians, and populate the entire territory of Ukraine with the maximum number of Russian citizens with low empathy, intellectual level.

As soon as Russia receives a frozen conflict, the aggressor country has not lost and will not bear legal responsibility, will not pay for the destroyed infrastructure, but, on the contrary, will become increasingly impudent and demand compensation for sanctions and the like. Why should the Russians stop in their key goal of destroying any mention of the word Ukraine?

Let us clarify what Russian occupation is. It’s not just that some administration came and everything remained the same for everyone. Occupation is completely different, especially Russian occupation. Russia is the 17th century. This is the most violent occupation with a large number of victims. Perhaps they won’t send everyone to concentration camps, but there will still be violence, confiscation of property, and Ukrainians will be second-class citizens for them, doing certain types of work.

These are not just words, given how the Russians behave in the occupied territories and how they treat Ukraine. The Russian population hates Ukraine. They believe that Ukrainians should be killed. On various platforms, officials, propagandists and others say to kill Ukrainians. This is a key national idea. And after that they want to dominate Europe.

The occupiers do not comply with any international rules in the occupied territories/Getty Images

I just want understand where people are still trying to transfer their logical conclusions, that supposedly if the Defense Forces stop and there are some rules, then this can be transferred to the horde, which has already repeatedly shown that until the key task is solved – to destroy the memory of the word Ukraine, – she won’t stop.

Why do people think that we can talk about the borders of 1991? Let’s break this myth. (We are talking – Channel 24) not about territory, but about the loss or gain of one and the other side. Someone has to lose, someone has to win.

What is a loss to Russia? These are not only territorial losses to Russia, there is no need to go to the 1991 border. The concentrated work of Ukraine and partner countries should lead to tactical defeats for Russia. Afterwards, these people must flee from the battlefield to the territory of Russia, where coups should begin.

This is no longer about territory, but about the existence of another type and loss Russia should be a completely different type. This could have been said at the beginning of the war, but not now. Today, either the democratic coalition or the coalition to nullify international law, which Russia created, will survive. Let's abandon plans to return our territories and this will guarantee us a sustainable peace. No, it doesn't guarantee. As it was not guaranteed to anyone in 2014 or 2008.

Russia cannot organize an offensive

Russia has restricted access to 14 settlements in the Belgorod region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked whether this means that the operation to create a so-called “security zone” in the Kharkov region has failed. He replied that this operation was ongoing, and Vladimir Putin, as president, had created a “sanitary zone” on Russian territory to supposedly protect the Russians.

First of all, Putin is not the president of Russia, but a self-proclaimed dictator. Because there is no competitive politics, there was no electoral cycle and electoral processes. And therefore, of course, from the point of view of the legal component, Putin is not an effective president of Russia.

Yes, he controls this territory, but this territory is not a classic country. This territory is an autarky with certain signs of feudal times and so on. That is, feuds are ethnic or territorial. This is a completely different design of this state. Therefore, this is an extremely dangerous state, because it has no goal of existing as a competitive state, has no goal of competing within the framework of modern international law.

It is necessary that representatives of global political elites realized, because if a country is built on completely different principles than what you are used to, then it will not compete with you within the framework of the agreements that you have fixed in the form of international law. This is a problem.

It is very good that you are talking about the sanitary border. You remember what kind of show-offs there were in Russia, they say, “we will now calmly push through the Ukrainian defense from the north of the Kharkov region.” Do you remember how we were told in our domestic market that “no, look, everything has failed you” and so on.

So, Russia has a large pile of still old resources, continues to transport them to the occupied territories or to the border ones – to the same Belgorod region and so on. All this must be destroyed. But Russia does not have sufficient capabilities to organize offensive actions. This is a very important point.

If Ukraine had a parity in the amount of weapons not only for effectively waging a defensive war, but also for effectively waging offensive actions or for destroying the resources accumulated by Russia on the border, then today the war would gradually move away from the occupied territories, or, say, plunge deeper into Russia .

Russia has no resource. It didn’t even have the resources to surround the big city of Kharkov. They believed that they could do this and after that, quite concretely, brazenly finalize the war. Today it is obvious that they do not have such a resource. What else is obvious? Russia is not ready for an effective war.

How long can you destroy the infrastructure on the border with Russia

Ukraine must receive more weapons in a timely manner and it is necessary to finally remove all certain restrictions on striking deep into Russia. This is a paradox of international law. Russia, by attacking the territory of Ukraine, violates international law. These are all criminal offenses. Ukraine, if it attacks Russian territory, then this is all within the framework of international law. These are not crimes; on the contrary, they are manifestations of a defensive war. Classic legal construction.

Removing these restrictions would mean that you and I would have a clear understanding of how Russia will lose. Because plunging the war into its territory would lead to other social consequences for the aggressor country. Today they already feel the war completely differently than they did a year ago. But if there was more destruction of infrastructure, ensuring war on Russian territory and more social groups were immersed in one way or another (into the war – Channel 24), then this would create additional pressure on the Russian political elite.

What is a loss in Russia? Not territory. This is the zeroing out of Putin’s vertical. That is, these are revolutionary processes or coups in Russia itself. Is this possible? This is not only possible, this is the only historical scenario that can be fully realized today in Russia.

Why? Because you and I have already repeatedly seen the weakness of the internal power vertical in Russia. Unpreparedness to quickly and adequately respond to manifestations of aggressive social protests. There is no one to react to this. You and I see that the Russian power vertical is not designed to work effectively against armed manifestations of aggression and so on.

Even if it’s stagnant as it is today – the fighting will continue, Russia will receive an ever larger “sanitary zone” on its territory. Why? Because anyway, Ukraine will have more long-range capabilities. The only thing Ukraine lacks today in order to work more effectively on Russia is a closed sky.

In order to stop the genocidal component of Russia – missile strikes, Ukraine needs an additional 10–15 missile defense systems. The corresponding formats are discussed. These are Patriot and SAMP/T. It’s mysterious to me that even on this matter they don’t want to quickly make appropriate decisions. This is not about escalation, but only about stopping the genocidal component of the war.

But I'm talking about something else now. What I mean is that right now it’s not enough to stop Russia on the contact line with the help of aviation. If stopped, Russia is not here and it no longer dominates the air, then Russia will begin to lose significantly and miss a large number of strikes on its territory.

Further strikes rockets. It's not just about the legendary ATACMS. This is about our missiles, and about others, and about Storm Shadow, and about drones of the corresponding range. With the help of this, infrastructure will be destroyed not only in the occupied territory controlled by Russia, but also in the border areas, and not only in the border areas. 3 – 4 months of work of this type, and it will have completely different social consequences for Russia. blackout” name=”Russians can blast a new blackout”>The Russians can arrange a complete blackout

At the Gusinoozerskaya State District Power Plant in Buryatia, 2 out of 3 power units went offline, which led to a blackout for 115 thousand users. Due to constant power outages, residents of Krasnoyarsk are now cooking on the streets. There are also problems with light in Ulan-Ude. There are also interruptions in the Internet and mobile communications. This trend in Russia will continue to spread in the future? Or are these seasonal fluctuations and they will end?

These are not seasonal variations. If Russia were analyzed correctly, it would be clear that this is a very specific economy. She's very shaky. Yes, she has a certain accumulated resource. I mean with the help of resource rent. These are the so-called national “welfare funds”. That is, they used them for certain social programs, by the way, for recruiting, that is, financing mobilization processes. But all this tends to disappear.

From the point of view of mechanisms, in order to compensate for sanctions, for example, to obtain a resource for repairing certain production – Russia cannot provide all this. From a technological point of view, Russia is the most backward country. All this is fiction, propaganda that Russia is a powerful competitive power.

If we analyzed it, we would understand that there are certain trends, and they are growing in Russia. Is it possible to speed them up? Yes, it is possible, if the sanctions had a different form. It’s not easy to introduce sanctions, for example, personal ones, but to allow businesses to receive premium income from Russia through intermediaries.

I frankly say that many European companies that operate in the dual-use goods market, starting in 2014, earned much more than before the start of the first stage of the war in Ukraine. And this is bad.

If everything had been stopped, if economic sanctions had had a completely different look, if there had been fair assessment of what needs to be done with this or that industry, then we would see this negativity that is happening – shutdowns, loss of markets, and so on – on a larger scale. Russia is a shaky economy. Her condition is much worse than anyone says. These analytical conspiracy articles are about how Russia can withstand a long-term war, but it cannot.

Yes, there is an accumulated resource. Yes, it is possible to sell large volumes of raw materials through the Pacific region. Yes, it's all there. The question is why the shadow tanker fleet is still operating? And why the price ceiling is 60 dollars per barrel of Russian Urals oil? Why is it constantly higher?

There are many issues that could be regulated if we honestly analyze the state of the Russian economy, honestly analyze how they receive resources to continue production. If all this were stopped, then we would have a different picture. All these trends you talk about would be scaled 10 to 100 times.

Today we would have a completely different picture socially. That is, Russia would stop sitting on social networks and writing something about Ukraine. They write this because they do not fully feel the cost of war. This is the second fundamental instrument of coercion for a country that violates international agreements. And Russia not only violates, but also does it as demonstratively as possible.

If the second instrument of coercion worked absolutely concretely, then the cost of war would increase significantly for a Russian it would be difficult for him. He would not be able to continue working, they would have large deficits. He would sit in de-energized houses, taking into account the quality of life in Russia. It would all look completely different. We already see this trend today.

They need to pay as much as possible for the war. Not yet legally, but financially. There are several board elements. Definitely physically. These are those who come to our territory – they must be destroyed. There is no point in talking about anything else here. To do this you need more weapons, especially long-range ones. There is no need to lead to direct clashes. It is necessary to destroy, for example, in the same Belgorod region. It is clear where the camps are located. And this is succeeding today, by the way.

In addition, the Russians must pay financially for this war with a much worse state of life: shutdowns, deficits, non-payment of wages and etc. The cost of war must be different.

Also the legal component. There should be a lot more arrest warrants for specific people. That is, they must realize that in any case they will pay, that they will be in the dock. There are already warrants, investigations are already underway. And there should be not two, three, four names.

Russia has few resources for a protracted war

The Russian media is carrying a story about a long war. The population has already begun to prepare for this. They quote Dmitry Medvedev, who said that the Ukrainian state will not exist until 2034. In my opinion, now it looks like Russians are being prepared for the fact that life will not be easier for the next 10 years.

To be honest, I don’t see the point in talking about the people of Russia, what they want to prove or not prove to them. It doesn't matter. Remember when there was an unsuccessful attempt to revolt by the Wagnerites and how the population of Rostov met these Wagnerites who were marching on Moscow? How they generally reacted to this march throughout Russia?

That is, as soon as the uprising begins in Russia, and it will happen, then on the side of those who begin to destroy Putin’s elite, there will be practically the same 90% who today call for killing Ukrainians. I want us to understand this. There is no point in talking about how propaganda will work, or preparing Russians for some kind of long-term war. Russia has comparatively fewer resources for a long-term war, because the countries that support Ukraine are much more powerful and technologically advanced.

Today the question is not what Russia wants or doesn’t want there. The question today is whether the global political elite will understand the historical moment in which it finds itself now. Will he draw conclusions, for example, from the results of parliamentary elections in certain countries? Will he draw conclusions about why there is such significant support for the right? What risks does Russia generate? What will it mean if Russia does not lose, etc. .?

If they (world leaders – Channel 24) do not realize this, then you and I will have chaos in international relations and, absolutely, a global war in various manifestations. This is not a question until 2024, it is a question here and now.

Also, for Russia to lose, mathematics, economics and isolation are necessary for this – 3 factors that are absolutely concrete today can be implemented. If Russia loses, then international law is restored at a different evolutionary level. It will have instruments of coercion, dominate, and many potential aggressive countries will temporarily reduce their manifestations of aggression.

That is, they (the aggressors – Channel 24) will behave more law-abidingly and many protracted conflicts that exist in different regions can be resolved. These are direct connections and we need to realize this.

Of course, Russia wants you and me to believe in 3 points. Today they are very powerfully investing in this information:

• one way or another we must force democratic countries to sit down at the negotiating table, and then somehow distract attention to something. They will behave brazenly, continuing to kill Ukrainians, and say that “Ukraine is provoking”;
• press Ukraine to freeze the war so that Russia remains in the occupied territories. This will mean the end of the second stage of the war – to remain in the structure in which it is today. The Putin regime is cemented, that is, they will throw away all the decorative, pseudo-democratic illusions that they have been selling for a long time, and will become a classic Nazi state;
• if they freeze the war, then their reputation will drop significantly EU, NATO, USA, democracies. That is, countries with unstable political regimes will understand that they need to focus exclusively on Russia. They say that aggression is the norm and international law no longer exists. Then you and I will get a super-powerful alliance that will constantly provoke, seize and break the rules.

This is how it all looks today. This is certainly not a question of a long-term war, and not a question of Medvedev. Russia wants to get a pause in this war in order to work on its mistakes, unite other countries, add expression to its propaganda and unite regimes and parties in Europe around itself that will provoke, provoke and provoke again.

The second part of the interview with Mikhail Podolyak Read soon on the 24 Channel website!