Russia's offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are aimed at weakening Western support for Kyiv, rather than achieving any immediate operational goals.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
— Russian forces could conduct costly offensive operations at a time unfavorable for ground maneuver to time a potential shift in battlefield initiative to ongoing talk in the West about continued support for Ukraine, — analysts say.
It is indicated that Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive operation to capture Avdiivka on October 10 and subsequently intensified local offensive operations elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, while Ukrainian troops began to wind down counter-offensive operations.
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The decision of the Russian military command to launch offensive operations in the fall of 2023 could be an opportunistic reaction to the likely weakening of Western support for Ukraine.
— The intensification of discussions in the West about the continuation of military assistance to Ukraine after relatively successful Russian defensive operations in the Zaporozhye region was predictable and may have been taken into account in the calculations of the Russian command, — the message says.
The ISW indicates that Russian forces regularly conduct military operations in Ukraine aimed at shaping Western behavior rather than achieving operational goals on the battlefield, and the US intelligence assessment that current Russian offensive operations have no immediate operational military purpose, quite plausible.
In addition, the Russian military also conducts offensive operations for domestic political reasons, and internal Kremlin dynamics may influence Russian military decisions regarding ongoing offensive operations.
— At this time, ISW does not offer an assessment of the underlying objective of current Russian offensive operations, but agrees with the US intelligence community's assessment that Russia has suffered very heavy losses without achieving operationally significant gains or creating the conditions for such gains, — experts conclude.
Earlier, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that within 24 hours, Ukrainian defenders had eliminated 850 Russian invaders.
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