Russia is losing control: an interview with Podolyak about the front and the fate of traitors

Interview with Mikhail Podolyak/Collage 24 Channel

Various excesses are becoming more frequent in Russia, for example the liquidation of Ilya Kivas or explosion on the Baikal-Amur Mainline. This indicates that the aggressor country is losing control over its territories and the destinies of the traitors who fled there.

Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak in exclusive interview with Channel 24told what loss of controllability in Russia can lead to. In addition, he named the main problem now in the war and what new weapons Ukraine needs.

Recall that in the first part of the interview we talked about whether the United States will support Ukraine after the failure of the aid vote, and also why Vladimir Putin flew to the UAE. More details – read the link.

What is the main problem in the war today

All analysts and experts agree that while our partners were concentrating on the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate did special things. In particular, we have returned the so-called “Boiko towers” ​​under control, we are working on the left bank of the Kherson region, and we have almost expelled the Black Sea Fleet from our Ukrainian Crimea. Are we able to switch this focus of attention?

Certainly, we are succeeding. And our partners also understand that there is a lot of positive things in Ukraine’s work from the strategic and tactical side. Everyone expected a more active development of offensive operations, we understand. After all, there was the experience of the Kharkov operation, partially the Kherson operation.

But our partners also understand that in the Black Sea there is no dominance of the Black Sea Fleet. This was completely shocking news for everyone. Further, part of this fleet is in Novorossiysk, part remains in Sevastopol. But meanwhile, he does not behave as aggressively and actively as he did a year and a half ago.

The partners are quite sincerely shocked by how the alternative grain corridor works. And why, by the way, does Russia constantly attack Izmail and Odessa? You and I understand that at least in this way they want to prevent us from continuing to work.

And what is an alternative grain corridor? This is 7.5 million tons of cargo transported without approval from any Russia. This really shocks everyone and is a consequence of what we constantly talk about – strategically, Russia is not as strong as it has been thought for a long time. Ukraine, despite its significant scarcity of resources, is finding ways to dominate in one direction or another in this war.

You are absolutely right about the attack, for example, on the Crimean peninsula. It turned out that we can actively develop certain military objectives there. In particular, targets that protect the airspace of the peninsula. And this is quite effective work.

Now let's move on to the most important component. The key problem in this war now is the lack of resources to destroy the logistics support of the Russian occupation group.

400 thousand people who are in the occupied territories are food, ammunition, ammunition, rotations. All this must be destroyed away from the immediate battlefield. We need to prevent endless small arms clashes when our guys are directly involved.

Full interview with Mikhail Podolyak : watch video

There are a lot of elements that can be destroyed. These are not only transport hubs, but also warehouses of a tactical and even strategic level, if we are talking about Crimea. In order to destroy this logistics, a significant increase in long-range missiles is needed. But these are production facilities that are now gradually being reinvested.

We are increasing investment in military production and our partners are increasing it. Why? Because there is an absolute understanding that all our visions of modern war have not come true. That is, the war looks completely different. The remaining accents, needs, resources, dominant capabilities should be other technologies. Now this is all being corrected, because there was no such volume of war in principle.

There were local conflicts in which special forces directly participated. And these are completely different wars. Or, for example, if we are talking about Syria, there was a significant dominance of aviation and an almost complete absence of missile defense systems, which made it possible to destroy Aleppo or Homs in a very limited time.

< p class="bloquote cke-markup" dir="ltr">Therefore, all this is now being worked out together with partners. And partners see a key element in Ukraine – it is a surprisingly professional army, which has reformatted very quickly.

I’m not only talking about the use of NATO standard weapons, but also about the rules and principles of modern warfare. It seems to me that, on the contrary, the Ukrainian army can be such a “collective consultant.” I'm not talking about the number of weapons and personnel, but about skills, about professionalism.

That is, the Ukrainian military can explain what war is, how to work through this war, how to analyze all the risks, how to counteract these risks, what technologies to use, how to combine these technologies, etc. It seems to me that our partners also understand this.

Ukrainian military will be able to advise Westerners/General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

They see a truly enormous number of successes at the tactical and even strategic level. Yes, they understand that in order to exterminate the entire Russian occupation group, and this is 400 thousand people, you need to clearly calculate the mathematics – how much it costs: in relation to a projectile, drone, missile, anti-tank, anti-mine system, etc. < /p>

What can provoke the final collapse of Russia

About the final for that temporary territory of Russia. More than 100 relatives of Russian military personnel complained to Vladimir Putin that the wounded were going to storm Avdievka in order to capture the city before the president’s “direct line”. Putin, accordingly, did not react to this in any way. In the 21st century, the collapse of a country is some of those moments that make up everyday life.

A very correct approach if we evaluate Russia. Yes, many irritants can accumulate that will one way or another lead to the collapse of the system. But here we must not forget that in Russia now there is no society at all, as one that has some interests of its own and can lobby for these interests in relations with the state.

They have no space for discussion at all. They have a repressive mechanism and, of course, the dominance of repressive technologies. In order to accelerate the destructive processes for Russian statehood, it is necessary to destroy the key myth. And the key myth of Russia is “greatness”: the army, navy, etc.

That is why, in order for irreversible destructive processes in Russian statehood to begin, it is necessary for the aggressor country to receive a significant tactical defeat on the front line. So that, say, a ship called “Moscow” would not just be destroyed. This is symbolic and very cool, but in order to continue the war, you need to take a creative approach to the destruction of certain objects in Russia.

But they have a lot ships “Moscow” and for them this is not a question. For them it is not even a question that the standard of living will significantly deteriorate. In Russia, the standard of living is not something that a person uses to start any social conflict or revolution, etc.

Russia is accustomed to living in limited conditions of comfort. Everyone looks at Moscow and thinks it's Russia. No. If we take 90% of Russia, then they are used to living in the most uncomfortable conditions, where you cannot be realized. And that suits them. This is a kind of “labor camp”. You just have to work, you will receive some kind of “ration”. And if you protest, they will deal with you by force, etc.

We must realize that significant irreversible socio-political processes will begin in Russia , when the elite will be very scared and chaos will begin in different regions. Because someone there will begin to intercept local power or there will be a redistribution of some property. And this is possible when Russia has a feeling of “loss of controllability.”

Everything that Yevgeny Prigozhin failed to do can only be done thanks to a tactical defeat. For example, in the Southern, Zaporozhye or even Donetsk direction or more significant issues in Crimea. This will be a signal that Russia is on the eve of internal cataclysms.

They say Ramzan Kadyrov attacks the Belgorod region. Soldiers of the West-Akhmat battalion hit the communications tower there. They believe that “thanks to this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were left without communication and the ability to call for reinforcements.”

Let them strike. It seems to me that it would be better for Kadyrov’s people to work in the Tyumen region. From there there are many more signals for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Destroy all the towers there, both in the Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk districts. It would be more interesting for them.

But it will increase and this is normal. You and I will see disintegration processes. This does not mean that these or other territories will go away. No, this means that there will be anarchy and disorder in certain territories. However for this it is necessary that there be several factors:

• so that we and our partners get out of these depressive moods. We will emerge at the subsequent stages of the war, and for this we need certain not stagnant processes, but promising ones, that is, something must happen;
• Ukraine must receive, taking into account the experience of this war all the necessary technological arsenal. We have already talked about this more than once that we need at this stage of the war;
• for the processes of isolation of Russia to begin and all the activists who invite Sergei Lavrov, for example, to the OSCE summit , stopped doing this. They will stop doing this when there are some successes on the Ukrainian front line.

It's all interconnected. And then in Russia itself it will become clear that there are many detachments. Not only Kadyrov’s detachments, not only ethnic detachments, but also internal – regional detachments that will try to intercept property or influence, because they will feel “anarchy”.

All these processes will definitely take place in Russia. But these factors need to be implemented and launched. We have to work on this. And the main thing is to constantly explain the same thing – both on the domestic market and on the foreign market. There is no compromise ending, no agreement in this war.

There is nothing more than “either you lose or they lose.” Only these functions exist and one or another strategy should be used in accordance with them.

If the democratic world is ready to lose, then it must understand that it must now reserve huge amounts of funds to rebuild the entire security system. That is, it will be necessary to isolate yourself from the outside world, form a certain democratic camp and protect yourself from constant provocations, attacks, terrorism, which, by the way, will be financed by Russia.

About the murder of Kiva and what awaits other traitors

Let's talk more about chaos. In particular, about explosions 6.5 thousand kilometers from Ukraine – in a tunnel on the Baikal-Amur Mainline. I also may not ask about Ilya Kiva (the traitor and ex-deputy was killed on December 6, 2023 in Russia – Channel 24). These are all elements of future chaos?

Yes, these are mandatory elements of chaos. This will happen more and more. Regarding Kiva, do not forget that Russia today is an extremely criminalized country. Kiva had a very specific circle of meetings and was generally a very specific person. Therefore, in Russia there will be many such excesses, because there are no safety guards, they have already been destroyed. Not everyone in Russia understands this yet.

Also, many people with criminal inclinations return from the war. This chaos will only increase, and will become a full-flowing river – the “Moscow River”, which will demolish everything and fill everything with blood.

We also do not forget that today both the Security Service of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine understand everything that is happening in Russia much more effectively. They have extensive agent networks and know how to work there. And Russian counterintelligence is not countering as significantly as before.

Gradually control over the territory, control over the fate of certain traitors passes into the hands of our intelligence and special services.

In addition, the importance of Kiva should not be exaggerated. He was not such an influential person; he did not influence Russian politics. He did not have any inside information from Ukraine. Kiva participated in classic Russian propaganda offensive formats on federal channels – no more.

Traitor Ilya Kiva/Channel 24

About blowing up highways in Russia and losing control

The explosions on the Baikal-Amur Mainline demonstrate that it is possible to block the entire internal logistics system of Russia, but we need to work on this. However, the Russians quickly repaired the damage and everything continues to work.

However, we are talking not only about these two incidents, but about dozens of different ones – fires break out in markets , production capabilities in distant regions are exploding. There are always some strange incidents happening all over Russia.

This suggests that Russia is gradually losing control. We would like this to happen faster. Probably, if Ukraine’s offensive operations had been more successful, then the number of these incidents would have led to the final loss of control over certain processes in Russia.

Today they concentrated a little – on international and domestic Ukrainian platforms, this mobilized the Russian security and management elites. Moreover, they get good money.

Sanctions certainly work, but not in the way we would like. Just like the ceiling on oil and gas prices. Russia continues to receive significant income, which means that it has the financial capacity to recruit people to the front, especially in very backward regions. But all these are elements of chaos and what awaits Russia.

If we look from the other side, two years before the start of a full-scale invasion, we could imagine such a number of incidents, attacks across Russian territory, such “toothless” behavior of law enforcement agencies that attack children coming out with “no war” posters, but increasingly do not interfere in criminal disputes throughout Russia?

Russia is returning to the legendary 1990s. The Russians will once again go through everything that happened in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but they will go through with much more blood.

About the presidential elections in Russia

Another element of chaos is the so-called “elections”, which in Russia were scheduled for March 17, 2024. Alexei Navalny called on Russians to go to the polls and vote against Vladimir Putin – for any other candidate. Do you believe in such calls?

First of all, this is internal Russian politics, despite the fact that it is not there. However, of course, the Russian opposition, even if it is a little strange, has the right to lead and choose certain scenarios and models of behavior. This is their choice, but, in my opinion, it makes absolutely no sense.

Russia has no competitive elections, there will be no alternative candidates. And there will be, for example, on the list some subject Zyuganov (Gennady Zyuganov, head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – Channel 24), but to consider that this is an alternative is nonsense. There will also be no vote counting.

This will be a banal reassignment of Putin. I don’t even understand why this is done, why this decor is needed in an undemocratic country.

They allocate money for this from the state budget, so let them allocate it.

Yes, they can make money on this – “cut off” funds, as always.

This will be a reassignment of Putin with a result of 75-85%. It doesn’t matter what the numbers are.

In this sense, the calls are, they say, we will vote against, and then the Russian authorities will see that everyone voted against . They will not look at the ballots or boxes at all. On March 17, this will be an act that will once again demonstrate why Russia does not belong to a democratic country, and never will.

We must treat this with irony and sarcasm and talk about it. However, the only thing that can affect the future fate of Navalny, the Russian opposition, Russian communities, the Russian state, and Russia in general is its defeat in the war with Ukraine.

This will give a chance for some kind of pseudo-democracy, temporary competitive policy and the resuscitation of political opportunities for people like Mr. Navalny. Apart from Russia's defeat in the war with Ukraine, everything else is fiction.

“Elections” will be held in Russia in March 2024/Getty Images

What to prepare for in winter

There is an opinion that perhaps Russia will not resort to massive shelling of Ukraine by “Shaheds” this winter, because they have either changed tactics or are accumulating strategic reserves that they have exhausted. Do you have an understanding of how Russia will act this winter? Or is this such an unpredictable territory that it is difficult to say in advance?

Russia is completely predictable. It will use any tools to continue genocidal tactics: attacks with supersonic cruise missiles or drones throughout Ukraine, especially the civilian population and critical infrastructure. And this is the use of genocidal practices that Russia will resort to.

Against the background of depression and a certain psycho-emotional hole – two years of war, this is really difficult – people must feel hope, must understand what will happen next. However, there are many factors that do not allow us to clearly say that tomorrow everything will look different, or tomorrow we will have concrete results.

The Russians will try to take advantage this psycho-emotional state and use drones. By the way, they use them every night, we see 35 – 50 drones. This is much more than last year. They try to attack certain objects, and along the front line they generally use ballistics and guided aerial bombs precisely to destroy critical infrastructure facilities.

It is important for Russians that people feel the cold – this is one of the tools. Hunger and cold are two key tools of Russia throughout the history of its existence.

In my opinion, they will use these tactics just like last year . They will try to attack our facilities, the civilian population, in order to provoke a certain hysteria or certain unrest in Ukraine based on this technology.

Is Ukraine ready? Yes . Intelligence provides objective figures on the accumulated resource. I would not pay attention to the fact that the Russians are accumulating strategic reserves. For Russians now the situation in the war is “it’s either pan or gone.”

Or they get results, and then for a while they will be able to compensate for any strategic accumulations, because they will be afraid of them. Or “disappeared” – and then it makes no difference whether you have 100 missiles for a nuclear warhead there, or 10.

So the Russians are following the standard for ourselves along the route, and we must be prepared for this. And about readiness: intelligence provides data on the production of missiles, and how much they have accumulated, at which military airfields the carriers are kept, how these carriers – strategic aviation – are prepared. Intelligence monitors this constantly in real time.

This year we have significantly increased the capacity of our missile defense systems; there are many more of them. Yes, there are not enough of them, there is a certain shortage. The President of Ukraine is working at various sites with our partners from Europe, in particular Germany, to significantly increase missile defense systems and protect ourselves from direct missile attacks.

In addition, there is a tactic for practicing drone attacks with the help of mobile mobile groups that actively put pressure on these drones. There is an absolutely clear understanding of the capabilities of our energy infrastructure: we have three levels of protection, primarily physical protection, and we have proven dispatch models. There are also agreements with partners on how to compensate for it in case of a shortage.

The country is preparing, and I am quite optimistic about what Ukraine is doing. We are aware of the risks and what Russia will do based on the experience of last year.

Russia no longer has a change in tactics, strategy, or personnel rotation. The people who dominate management, including Putin or Patrushev (Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council – Channel 24), remain. They have the same vision of what needs to be done, how the civilian population in Ukraine needs to be liquidated so that Russia does not lose this war.

Only intelligence has this data, we cannot voice it? If we can, then I’ll ask you to at least provide some guidance.

In my opinion, this should be voiced by representatives of the Ukrainian Air Force, they have talked about this more than once, in particular about the number of missiles, how these missiles will be used, which will be an emergency reserve in Russia. The Main Intelligence Directorate also speaks about this.

If you ask them, they will absolutely clearly record the number of missiles of various modifications, the number of missiles ready for use, the number of missiles that will be unused by Russia in any case.

Ukraine asked for new types of weapons from the United States

News appeared from Reuters that Ukraine has requested Apache helicopters, F-18 fighters and sophisticated air defense systems from the United States. This is our view of the future – for 2024?

This is absolutely Ukraine's pragmatic approach. We clearly understand what kind of war this is. It is analyzed from the point of view of Russia's technological capabilities and what we can possibly use to more effectively destroy Russia's accumulated reserves.

This is the correct approach of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. They capture the need for technological changes in the de-occupation strategy.

Let's go back a year, when we said that we needed armored vehicles. If Russia uses 500 tanks, then 30, for example tanks of the same Challenger or Abrams modification, is not quite enough to fight on parity.

If we are talking about armored vehicles , you need to have 300 – 400 tanks. But according to the analysis of this war, first of all, it is necessary to control the air or logistics.

And what is air? It's drones, it's aviation, and it's Apache. This will make it possible to drive away the Russians and control exactly what is happening along the front line. There are an unlimited number of Russian FPV drones, Lancets, etc. hanging there. In order to put an end to this, so that there is no Russian dominance in the air, we need tools.

As for logistics, you need to destroy everything at a distant approach, and also carry out counter-battery combat at long distances. For this you need long-range missiles. And most importantly, we need shells – in large quantities. This need does not disappear anywhere.

Our representatives in the United States at various sites, and a large representative delegation including the Minister of Defense went there, are asking the right questions.

They talk about the prospects for this war, about forecasts for it. If today we clearly fix what tools the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need in two or three months, these terms will be more balanced and realistic than we start doing something again, and in a year it will become clear: in order to remove Russia’s dominance in the air, we did not have enough some kind of instrumental base.