Russia is in a hurry to attack because of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Putin may again step on the same rake

On the contrary, Russia is preparing for a new offensive. Stoltenberg assured that today no one can say when the war will end. In his opinion, it is the dictator Putin who can end the war, because it was he who invaded a sovereign democratic state in Europe.

But the problem is that there is no sign that the Kremlin is preparing for peace. In Russia, they are only spinning the flywheel of the war, creating a narrative for the Russians that they cannot lose this war, which means that they must pay a high price for the sake of realizing the ambitions of the crazed Putin.

According to Stoltenberg, the Kremlin is preparing for a new offensive. And, as the commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces says, Putin is trying to do this as quickly as possible, taking advantage of the slow transfer of weapons from the West to Ukraine.

At the same time, Stoltenberg is confident that at some stage the war will end with negotiations. But in order to accelerate them, Ukraine must receive more modern weapons.

South Korea: NATO is looking for a new donor for Ukraine

As for the supply of weapons, Stoltenberg also to South Koreawith a call to review their legislation on refusing to export weapons to countries in conflict so that it can help arm Ukraine.

He noted that several NATO countries have already changed their policy, because they had never exported weapons before to countries of conflict. Here he was referring to Germany, Norway and Sweden.

It should be explained that South Korean law says thatarms exports can only be used for “peaceful purposes”and “should not affect international peace, security support and national security.” That is, South Korea cannot transfer weapons to a warring country.

Returning to Stoltenberg's thesis that it is necessary to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine in order to force the Kremlin to negotiate, it should be said that Russia is actively trying to turn everything upside down The Kremlin is trying to send a message that it is not ready to negotiate with Kyiv while the West is supplying us with weapons.

In particular, today Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov said that the decision of the United States and NATO allies to send tanks to Ukraine made any negotiations with Kyiv “meaningless” for Moscow.

According to the old method, Ryabkov said that in fact the West does not seek to help Ukraine, but simply uses our country as a “testing ground” for its weapons. That is, Moscow's thesis is that Ukraine should not be supplied with weapons, and then the Russians dream of seizing most of the territory of our country and moving on to negotiations. To which Ukraine, of course, will not agree.

The attack on the Sumy region: what forces does the Kremlin really operate

At the same time, the question arises – can Russia really have time to prepare forces for offensive to take advantage of the time while partners transfer weapons to Ukraine?

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has made an analysis proving thatRussia will have time to prepare for localized attacks in the East in the next two months, in particular in the Luhansk region and the Donbass. By the middle of spring, its offensive momentum will fade, andit will be a window of opportunity for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which by then should receive all the announced assistance.

However, the enemy is already trying to create conditions ostensibly testifying to preparations for the offensive. In particular, the governor of the Russian Kursk region, Roman Starovoitov, said thatan additional contingent of Russian military will arrive in the region in the near futuresupposedly “to carry out tasks to protect the border.”

It should be understood that the Kursk region borders on the Sumy region of Ukraine. Thus, the enemy is trying to draw part of the Ukrainian forces to this direction, because earlier there were suggestions thatRussia might try to attack the Sumy regionduring a new offensive.

At the same time, the State Border Guard Service reported that the occupiers transferred their new units to Belarus for training. Meanwhile, some military men who have already completed the exercises have returned to Russia, from where they will be transferred to the occupied territories of Ukraine, where battles are taking place.

It was previously reported that some of the Russians were taken out of Belarus and thrown into the Lugansk region. At the same time, the speaker of the State Border Guard Service Andrei Demchenko assured that, despite the transfer of new units, the total number of Russians in Belarus, on the contrary, has decreased. Consequently, the situation on our border is fully controlled by the defense forces of Ukraine.

That is, the Russians are constantly moving their troops on the territory of Belarus and in the border regions of Russia in order to create the impression that they are preparing an offensive in these areas.

Shelling of the Kharkiv region: how Moscow comes up with an attack on Kharkov

At the same time, the invaders attacked Kharkov, where they hit a high-rise building with a S-300 missile. One woman is known to have died and three others injured. The enemy also fired at the border settlements of the Kupyansky, Chuguevsky and Kharkov regions of the region.

Under enemy fire were Kupyansk, Volchansk, Strelechye, Dvurechnaya and other towns and villages. In addition, some sabotage groups of Russians are trying to penetrate the territory of the Kharkov region. And Russian propagandists began to present this whole situation as preparation for a big attack on the Kharkiv region.

However, the Center for Counteracting Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council stated that after a wave of fakes about large offensives of the invaders in Zaporozhye areasRussian propagandists decided not to slow down and spoke about the “offensive” in the Kharkov direction. This is nothing more than a fake!

In particular, the Russian media have already reported that Russian troops allegedly went on the offensive in the north of the Kharkov region. Russian propagandists assure the Russians that there is allegedly “a high probability that ordinary reconnaissance in force could end in trouble for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

But the National Security and Defense Council said that this was another attempt to intimidate. At the same time, this is an attempt to constantly divert our forces to different directions while the invaders storm the Donbass.

Note that the speaker of the Defense Forces of the Tauride direction Yevgeny Yerin assured that the Russian troops do not yet have sufficient forces and means to offensive in the Zaporozhye region. So far, the invaders are concentrating on reconnaissance and shelling of the front line. The Russians themselves managed to disperse the information that these offensive actions were allegedly taking place.

Mobilization in Russia: Putin steps on the same rake

Russia may be preparing for a longer war. Analysts note that the Kremlin is planning several phases of offensive in the East to try to capture the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Russia is ready to stretch it out over a period of six months to a year.

As proof of this tactic, British intelligence reported thatRussian authorities still do not rule out the possibility of another round of “partial mobilization”. It is these forces that will be needed for a new offensive in Ukraine to implement the tactics that the Kremlin dreams of implementing.

Intelligence takes into account that on January 22 there were already reports thatRussian border guards prevent the departure of Kyrgyz citizens from Russia migrant workers with two passports, informing the men that their names are on the mobilization lists.

In addition, on January 23, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said thatthe “partial mobilization” decree continues to be in effect, stating that the decree is still needed to support the armed forces. And this, despite the words of Peskov himself that partial mobilization has been completed. Therefore, intelligence concluded thatthe Kremlin is looking for a way to a new public wave of mobilization.

But here it should be taken into account that we are dealing with an inadequate enemy that can attack the same rake several times.Everything that Russia is doing now is trying to intimidate Ukraine and the West. Yes, they are ready to launch a new offensive, but they do not have the resources to attack from all sides, so they put pressure psychologically.

In the UK, they made two confessions that the Russians tried to intimidate even before the start of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine British. In particular, Boris Johnson said that Putin threatened him personally with a missile attack.

Also, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace mentioned that Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov told him before the invasion that Russia would never be humiliated again.

So,Russia is still trying to puff out its cheeks and show Ukraine and to the West, that supposedly it is still powerful and will not be humiliated by defeat. And in this context, ISW experts recall that with such threats of last year and with the partial success of the Russians a phase of the war began, where Ukraine seized the initiative and returned most of the territories seized after February 24.

Therefore, history will repeat itself this time – the Russians will go on the offensive, but then the Armed Forces of Ukraine, having waited for weapons, will seize the initiative. However, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to rely on albeit modernized, but Soviet weapons to deter the invasion of the Russians. And that's why the Kremlin is trying to drag out the war in time.

F-16 aircraft question: Poland is pushing through Germany again

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia wants to prolong the war on Ukrainian territory and drain Ukrainian resources. Therefore, Ukraine and partners must make time a weapon against Russia.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki made an important statement on this topic. He said thatPoland is ready to provide Ukraine with its F-16 aircraftif appropriate coordination with NATO takes place.

Suchstatement is very important in the context of the fact that Germany is trying to evade from the aviation supply issue for the APU. It should be recalled how Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposed the transfer of the Leopards. And it was Poland, with its statement about its readiness to transfer a company of tanks to Ukraine, that essentially unblocked this issue.

Therefore, there is hope that the issue of aircraft will also be unblocked, because today it is very important. So far, Scholz flatly refuses to even discuss this issue. However, as in the situation with tanks, Scholz began to be pressured not only from outside, but also from within the country.

In particular, the co-chair of the Social Democratic Party of Germany, Zaskia Esken, said that the issue of transferring fighter jets to Ukraine is debatable and is being discussed in the offices of the Bundestag.

Esken, who heads the coalition government led by Chancellor Scholz, does not began unambiguously excluding the possibility of supporting Ukraine with fighter jets, pointing out that “the decisive factor is that Germany and NATO do not become a party in this war.” At the same time, she assured that Berlin rejects Russian aggression with every decision, and Putin should understand this.

Esken's statement has already irritated Scholz. He sharply replied that the debate on this issue within Germany should cease. He stated thatthis issue requires serious discussions, and not competition, in which “domestic political motives come to the fore instead of supporting Ukraine.”

Consequently, it turns out to be aquestion needs advice, although yesterday Scholz assured that this question is not even worth discussing.