USA, European Union and Australia impose an embargo on the import of Russian oil products and a “ceiling” on their export to another world. Preliminary restrictions on oil are working great.
The main indicator of Russian problems
The average discount on Russian oil is kept at 40% and does not decrease, despite all the efforts of Russia to circumvent the bans.
It will be even more difficult to circumvent the restriction with oil products, because supertankers do not transport them. It was not possible to freeze Europe – neither us nor the European Union.
There, by the way, the level of gas reserves in storage facilities by the beginning of February is 76% compared to 41% last year. As they say, feel the difference.
But the main indicator of Russian problems is the Russian budget. In January, his spending rose by two-thirds compared to last year. By the way, this is also an indicator of how much war costs in Russia. But revenues have almost tripled.
This trend has been there for the second month, and it is directly related to the embargo on Russian oil and the “ceiling” on it. Civilized countries no longer buy oil or Russian oil products, and there is a restriction for everyone else.
The Kremlin ceases to be a player
For the Kremlin, there is a real and already tangible threat of macroeconomic destabilization. I have seen different estimates of the Russian regime's losses depending on oil price fluctuations: from 75 to 125 billion dollars a year. And this is very cool.
The main result is that Moscow is forced to play given the “red flags” set by the West. Russia remains a supplier, but ceases to be a player. More to come.
