Russian invaders purposefully destroy the Ukrainian energy system. The situation is not as bad as it could be. But rolling blackouts are obviously indispensable.
About this Channel 24Yury Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute of Energy Strategies, said. Earlier, Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko said that Russian missiles damaged about 30% of Ukraine's energy system. However, according to Korolchuk, this indicator is more mathematical. In reality, the situation is better.
According to him, now the process is still under control. All damage is subject to prompt repair, after which the facilities can produce electricity in a crisis mode. But the main repairs may be delayed.
Both Burshtynskaya and Ladyzhynska TPPs. There is the prospect of a fairly quick recovery online. But the main repair can take up to 2-3 months. However, the stations will be able to work,” Korolchuk noted.
He added that the figure of 30% most likely takes into account the installed capacity of the facilities. However, neither Burshtynska nor Ladyzhynska TPP have been operating at full capacity for a long time.
They and other affected objects are mainly included in the group of shunting capacities – they cover the peaks of electricity consumption. Therefore, according to Korolchuk's estimates, about 7% – 10% are affected, depending on the season.
Why, most likely, it will not cost without rolling blackouts.
According to Korolchuk, rolling blackouts are the most effective option that will help normalize problems with Ukraine's energy system after missile strikes.
“The optimal process is a forced power outage. Whether you like it or not, you are turned off. Because these recommendations for self-limitation during peak hours actually have a minimal effect. Both in the USA and in Australia there were such restrictions There is nothing surprising,” Korolchuk stressed.
The situation may worsen if the invaders try to strike at Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Most likely, they are not capable of destroying the reactor, because there are powerful protection systems. But they can get through substations, transmission lines or facilities responsible for the production of electricity at nuclear power plants.
Currently, 9 power units continue to operate in Ukraine without the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. This is the base of electricity that is constantly supplied to the grid. And shunting capacities (thermal power plants, thermal power plants – 24 channels), roughly speaking, help to trim up to 220 volts so that there is a stable voltage.
If nuclear power plants stop, then where to fill the deficit – there is no answer yet. One can hope for Europe, but electricity is also in short supply there. And the capacity of cross-border power lines is not significant. In this case, “blackouts” in part of the territory are really likely in Ukraine.
We understood that certain mechanisms should be involved in order to prevent or minimize the loss of strikes on the energy system. Objectively, it turned out to be technically difficult. Perhaps there are not enough air defense and missile defense systems,” Korolchuk said.
Add, the Russian invaders again damaged the substation, which was connected with the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. Now the facility is running on diesel generators again. The damage occurred at 8:59 am.
According to Energoatom, the invaders fired rockets at the Dneprovskaya substation in the Dnepropetrovsk region. Therefore, the communication line 750 kV ZAES – Dneprovskaya was disconnected. Energoatom sent another batch of diesel fuel to ZNPP. However, as of 10:00, the Russian invaders did not let the convoy of the company's cars through.
