Russia in a bind: Trump has serious leverage over Putin

Russia in a difficult situation: Trump has serious leverage over Putin Alexandra Sadovaya

The situation in the Russian economy is very difficult. The Kremlin is faced with a dilemma: whether to continue the war and receive even tougher sanctions. For US President Donald Trump, this is an argument to put pressure on Vladimir Putin.

After all, Trump wants to fulfill his election promise to end wars in the world. This was noted to Channel 24 by the head of the Center for Public Analysis “Vezha” Valery Klochok.

There are many problems in the Russian economy

Valery Klochok noted that the situation in Russia is difficult. A third of foreign currency income remains abroad, Russians cannot bring it in. In 2024, they received only 70 billion dollars, which is very little for an aggressor country. Many settlements in Russia are made with China and India in the national currencies of these countries, which they cannot withdraw from there.

At the end of his term, the previous US President Joe Biden adopted effective sanctions, which added significant problems for Russia. Now the Kremlin has received a serious warning from Washington that either they end the war or they will receive serious sanctions.

Please note! Donald Trump called on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. According to him, otherwise he may impose new sanctions and duties on all Russian exports to the United States. He threatened Putin that “it will only get worse.” At the same time, the American leader said that he “does not want to harm Russia, because he loves the Russian people.” He also noted that he “had a good relationship with Putin.”

There is currently a dilemma among Putin's entourage. Some believe that the war should continue. Others believe that it is necessary to end the war because the economic situation is difficult. In particular, Russian oligarchs are unhappy with the increase in the Central Bank's interest rate, which Russia will be forced to do. Putin understands what a difficult situation he is in.

Trump understands that the situation in Russia is difficult. For him, this is an argument for pressure to fulfill his election promise to end wars in the world as a whole. Therefore, the pressure on Putin is serious and should not be underestimated. The statements of the Trump administration are quite unambiguous, the analyst emphasized.

However, it is still unknown what Trump's actions will be if Putin refuses to end the war. It is still unclear whether these will be sanctions or tariffs. Trump is more inclined to introduce tariffs.

“If there are just tariffs on Russian goods that will enter the United States, then this is nothing. Because it is necessary to limit Europe's ability to trade with Russia. It is necessary to involve Europe in this process,” explained the head of the Center for Public Analysis “Vezha”.

There are many problems in the Russian economy. In particular, this is a crisis in the construction, transport industry, and Russian railways. Against this background, inflation is growing. Corporate loans that banks issued to defense enterprises under some kind of government guarantees are not being returned. The banking system is on the verge of collapse.

But is Putin really ready to determine priorities, that the economy is more important than the so-called “his own” – I am not ready to say. But I can say that not everything will depend on Putin. Much will depend on what decisions his entourage makes, Klochok said.

One group of Putin's entourage strives to continue fighting at any cost. Another understands the fatality of these desires, the inevitability of an economic crisis, collapse.