Russia appears to be recovering munitions and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases. This is incompatible with the creation of conditions for a large-scale Russian or Belarusian ground attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
So, Russia, obviously, began to use Belarusian stocks. So it is hardly possible to expect an offensive from the territory of Belarus.
Russians are taking equipment out of Belarus
- On October 11, the GUR reported that the train with 492 tons of ammunition from the Belarusian 43rd missile and ammunition arsenal in Gomel arrived at the Kirovskaya station in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
- Intelligence also reported that the Belarusian authorities plan to send another 13 echelons with weapons, equipment, ammunition and other materiel from 5 different Belarusian bases to the railway stations “Kamenskaya” (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky) and “Marchevo” (Taganrog) in Rostov region.
- Video footage from open source social media supports this report. Geolocation footage from October 11 shows at least two Belarusian trains with their T-72 tanks and Ural military trucks in Minsk and Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems in Orsha (Vitebsk region).
What does this mean
The Institute for the Study of War noted that the movement of Belarusian equipment to Russia indicates that Russian and Belarusian forces probably do not create assembly areas in Belarus. Belarusian equipment and supplies to temporarily occupied Crimea and Rostov mean Russian forces are less confident about the safety of Russian ground communications running through the north and west of the Luhansk region.
But Belarus remains an ally in Russia's war against Ukraine. Belarus provides material support to Russian offensives in Ukraine and provides Russian forces with bases from which they can attack Ukraine with precision-guided munitions.
In particular, Russian forces are attacking the North with Sahed-136 drones. It is known that as of October 10, Russia transferred 32 such drones to Belarus, and by October 14 it will transfer 8 more.
