American intelligence is convinced that Russia still lacks the ammunition and troops to succeed in the war in Ukraine in 2023. Because she can go on the defensive.
After recent setbacks on the battlefield, Putin has become aware of the problems his captors face. Therefore, the dictator can adjust his strategy. This was stated by the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, Avril Haynes.
Putin focused on limited operations
The Russian offensive continues, but the invaders are suffering heavy losses. Haynes notes that Putin probably has a better understanding of the limits his military can reach. The dictator appears to be focusing on more limited military objectives.
However, Russia can still continue the war in Ukraine. According to Haynes, this will mean long pauses in offensive operations, as the best chance to achieve their strategic goals.
Lack of ammunition
In addition, the aggressor state faces critical morale issues and ammunition shortages. If it does not initiate mandatory mobilization and does not have supplies of ammunition from third countries, it will become increasingly difficult for it to support the offensive.
In the end, the invaders can completely switch to the maintenance and defense of the occupied territories. Intelligence predicts that the Russian military will not recover enough this year to make significant gains.
