The United States attacked Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanga and Isfahan on the night of June 22. According to US President Donald Trump, all critical facilities of the Iranian nuclear program were completely destroyed. He also warned Iran against retaliation.
Iran, in turn, acknowledged the attacks by the United States, but said the damage was not critical and promised to continue enriching uranium.
Meanwhile, on Sunday morning The situation in the Middle East has become even more tense: Israel and Iran have exchanged missile strikes.
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The international community has largely condemned the US president’s radical decision. The UN, EU, Germany, France, China and other states expressed concern, while America’s traditional allies, in particular the UK, Japan, Australia and others, were much softer in their reaction. The latter called for peace, but emphasized the danger posed by Iran.
Israel, as expected, welcomed such US actions, thanking Trump for a “bold decision” that will help the Middle East “enter an era of prosperity.”
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What geopolitical consequences will the US strike on Iran have, will recent events further aggravate the situation in the Middle East, and what does this mean for Ukraine, particularly in the context of a full-scale war? ICTV Fakty asked political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
Conflict between Iran and Israel: should we expect an escalation?
Today, the most probable scenario is the continuation of military actions between Iran and Israel, believes Vladimir Fesenko. And here, the expert notes, the main thing is that there is no escalation of the conflict. And what happens next depends on Iran's actions.
There are two major risks if Iran retaliates by attacking American military bases. The first is that the US will resume attacks on Iran, making the risk of an escalating war more realistic.
There is also a risk that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz. And this, too, according to the political scientist, would lead to further US involvement in military actions. Also among the possible consequences of US actions is the overthrow of the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Therefore, if, as some experts believe, the current Iranian leadership is focused on saving its regime, it should avoid direct attacks against the United States,” the expert notes.
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So fighting between Iran and Israel is likely to continue for some time. And then there is the possibility that Iran's leaders will negotiate to stop enriching uranium on their soil. Because now, in their weakest position in nearly five decades, Iran's leaders will be more willing to accept a deal under international pressure.
There is also a risk of disagreements between the US and Israel. American officials say they are not going to wage war to overthrow the regime, while Israel, according to many experts, has such intentions. And here, between the two countries that have become allies in this war, there is a clash of views. And this could provoke a complication in relations between the states in the future.
US strike on Iran: consequences for Ukraine
The first negative consequence for Ukraine is the shift in focus from the war in our country to the situation in the Middle East.
— Now the attention of the international community, in particular the US, and even our European partners has switched to the war in the Middle East. Our war has faded into the background. This was very noticeable at the G7 summit, primarily due to Trump's behavior.
However, in any case, the risks of war in the Middle East, the risks of an energy crisis, they are now quite high, so our war has faded into the background, says Vladimir Fesenko.
The war will not be forgotten, the expert notes, since it is strategic, more important and large-scale, but the situational effect of actions in the Middle East really takes up most of the attention.
The second consequence of the US strike on Iran is a possible rise in oil prices. This means that Russia may have more money for the war against Ukraine.
The third negative factor is related to the probable shortfall in the supply of much-needed American weapons to Ukraine , in particular air defense systems, ammunition for certain air defense systems and anti-aircraft systems, due to the supply of this military component to Israel.
— It would be important for Ukraine to acquire American weapons. Here, of course, it is difficult to assess how much problems we will have in this regard. But if we recall the war with Hamas two years ago, then Ukraine experienced a deficit in artillery shells, and now certain nuances may arise in terms of meeting our needs for air defense systems, — adds Vladimir Fesenko.
Another negative aspect is that it creates an incentive for additional contacts between Trump and Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, who offers to mediate between Iran and Israel.
— Another thing is that, of course, this war creates certain problems for Russia, since in the event of Iran’s defeat, Russia’s position in the Middle East is weakened. In addition, Putin’s public support for Iran could complicate his relations with Trump, — the political scientist adds.
An additional risk is the intensification of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, since the aggressor country has yet another “justification” for terror.
— They, as has happened before, can copy the actions of the Americans and say: well, if the US does this, why can't we? They used this argument when they started the war against Ukraine, and justified themselves by saying that the US had once conducted military operations against Iraq and Libya, so we can do the same, — adds Vladimir Fesenko.
The US may also actually become even more distant from the peace process, as most experts fear.
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– As for the further negotiation process, it could be different. It is too early to draw conclusions, – the expert notes.
Trump's decisive actions could have positive consequences, too. If the US president does manage to squeeze Iran and taste victory, it could push him to take more decisive action against Russia.
— Of course, we won’t be talking about military attacks on Russia and the like. And I don’t think that this would fundamentally change Trump’s attitude toward Putin, but nevertheless, the taste of victory and the positive impact of decisive actions could change the US president’s tactics a little.
This is a possible positive scenario of a US strike on Iran. Who knows, maybe Russia would then be more constructive in the further negotiation process, the expert added.
Now, as the expert notes, there are certain concerns from the Kremlin regarding the situation in the Middle East, and the Americans could use this to put pressure on Russia in the negotiations. But this is still an overly optimistic scenario. If there is pressure from the US in the peace process, it will be on both sides. And how this will work is hard to say now.
The main thing is that there is no escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, since this will certainly distract the attention of the world community from the events in Ukraine, and there will be more negative risks.
