Erdogan's position, Putin's war and NATO expansion: an interview with the Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey/Channel 24 website collage< p _ngcontent-sc87="" class="news-annotation">Against the background of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, Turkey's geopolitical priorities remain unchanged. Ankara still continues to be guided solely by its own interests when building relations with partners.
How Turkey proves the fallacy of the opinion that everything is only for Ukraine, what Erdogan wants in exchange for NATO membership cards for Stockholm and Helsinki, what the British and Turkish defense ministers will talk about, what topics Blinken touched upon during a meeting in New York and Cavusoglu and how Kazakhstan will arm itself with Turkish ANKA drones – in an exclusive interview to the 24th channel website, Ukraine's Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Turkey Vasily Bodnar.
Russia's position on the war against Ukraine
Mr. Vasily, why did Turkey take as a basis such an ambiguous line of foreign policy behavior in the context of the great war launched by Moscow against us?
It is one thing when you are guided by the fact that they write in the media, and it’s completely different when you are inside and know a little more than is usually seen from our side. We are used to having everything for us. Instead, it's usually all about yourself first.
You will not first protect the interests of a neighbor and only then your personal ones. The same is said in Turkey. The country's economy has suffered a lot, and they are, of course, looking for where to work. The policy of balancing between different centers of power is traditional for Ankara. Therefore, there is nothing surprising here. The main thing for us is that the Turks do not abandon us.
Vasily Bodnar explained Turkey's position regarding Russia's war against Ukraine/Photo courtesy of the speaker
Accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO
What is the real reason for blocking the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, which Erdogan is talking about now?
In fact, Turkey is very interested in NATO expansion. It traditionally supports Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Because this, firstly, strengthens the Alliance itself, and secondly, expands its geography, and thus relieves pressure on the southern flank, where Turkey itself is located.
Now let's talk about Sweden and Finland. It is more about Turkish interests. First of all, they are connected with domestic politics. I would like to remind you that Turkish society is extremely anti-Western in its sentiments. 92% of Turks believe that America is to blame for all the troubles. This is the inner dimension. Considering that next year there will be presidential and parliamentary elections.
The second dimension is issues related to relations in the Turkey-US format. The Turks want to emphasize the importance of their interests in the course of the dialogue with the Americans. Since the States and some countries of the Alliance were at one time the initiators of the application of certain restrictive measures against Ankara. Including restrictions imposed on trade in military and dual-use goods, which were considered discriminatory in Turkey.
And the third dimension is, of course, bilateral. In the countries of the Western world, there is a large Kurdish population. And part of it supports the activities of the terrorist organization PKK. The latter is recognized both in Sweden and in Finland as a terrorist organization in the same way.
As you can see, there are some nuances here. And, accordingly, Turkey seeks to reach agreements with the two countries on limiting the activities of organizations that are considered terrorist. Plus, if you remember, there was a failed coup attempt in 2016.
Erdogan has his own demands for Finland and Sweden/Photo by Getty Images
The Turkish authorities believe that this unsuccessful coup was organized by members of the Gülenist organization. This is a structure consisting of fans of Fethullah Gülen. According to official Ankara, Gülen's followers, who were involved in the attempt to overthrow the government 6 years ago, live in the countries of the democratic camp and no restrictive measures are applied to them.
Consequently, Erdogan demands that Turkish interests be taken into account in this matter. Including the concern of his country, and that they not provide support to those structures that are classified as terrorist in Turkey.
For Erdogan, it is important that the sanctions imposed on the acquisition of Russian S400 air defense systems be lifted also?
I think so. The Turkish side at one time expressed a desire to acquire Western-style air defense systems. As far as I remember, there was a request to transfer part of the technology to establish the production of such systems in Turkey.
Unfortunately, the parties could not reach an agreement. Ankara failed to conclude agreements either with the United States and its weapons manufacturers, or with manufacturers of similar weapons from other leading countries. And that is why, as a kind of pressure element, it was decided to turn to Russia for the purchase of C400. They were delivered to Turkish territory, but have not yet been put into service with the army.
The complexes are still standing simply as iron. The second moment, which was a lesson from 2016, when the state authorities could not do anything with their own bombarding civilian infrastructure facilities, because, as you know, the “friend or foe” recognition system is involved in the air defense and air force interaction system . There was an attempt to shoot down these planes with our own air defense systems, but the system is so seriously integrated and not subordinate to the Turkish authorities that it is simply impossible to shoot down these planes.
This then served as an explanation for the Turks to acquire Russian weapons. It is specially tuned to counter Western-style aircraft. The C400 is not integrated into the NATO air defense system.
By the way, the C300 system, for example, is in service in Greece. The use by the Greeks of this Soviet-made system also adds to the Turkish case for acquiring Russian weapons. Like, why are they allowed, but we are not?
You told, and I remembered how Biden supposedly some time ago proposed to Erdogan to transfer the S400 complexes purchased in Russia to Ukraine.
It was really a purely media campaign. There is nothing to do with reality here. A potential agreement of this type has not been worked out by either side.
First, because military-technical cooperation has certain rules. And the key one is the end user certificate. That is, if a product obtained as a result of an agreement between two parties, where the second party is the final recipient (consumer), passes to a third party, this will mean a violation, which subsequently negatively affects the credibility of the state that transferred the products contracted for itself to the third player .
In the future, such a state will not be willing to work in the field of military-technical cooperation. This is the first formal moment. And the second point is that Turkey spent about $1.5 billion to buy these C400s.
Of course, they bought them for themselves. Giving away this precious weapon just like that, without any conditions, is unrealistic. That's why it wasn't even discussed. And finally, the Turkish side was subjected to various sanctions from its own NATO partners. So this state of affairs appropriately politicizes the issue.
The American president seems to have offered the Turks something instead, right?
Turkey was a participant in such an extensive program for the purchase of F35 aircraft. It was precisely because the C400 was acquired that Turkey was officially excluded from this program. And she had already paid the money for participation at that time. It was not about compensation for Russian air defense, but about the possibility of either returning funds or using them to resupply Turkey with new generation F16 aircraft. No one even reached the F35. Because there is still a limitation there.NATO expansion and negotiations with Turkey
The British said a few days ago that they know how to negotiate with Turkey to remove the issue of its possible veto of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. What is this method?
Here we are talking about how to agree on a diplomatic way. That is, through negotiations, in other words. It is unlikely that anyone will put pressure on Erdogan or convince him to reduce his appetites.
In this context, Johnson has already had a conversation with the Turkish leader. The relevant ambassadors have already been instructed to find out specific requirements and what can be done in this situation. I am more than convinced that Turkey will come out victorious and will be able to defend its own interests thanks to such a tough position of its own. And as a result, everyone will be satisfied.
Bodnar is sure that Turkey will “win” in the issue of NATO expansion/Photo provided by the speaker partners in the West.
What about the meeting of the British and Turkish defense ministers?
The contact schedule of Turkish ministers or other senior officials is extremely active. They constantly hold consultations within NATO and in a bilateral format. There are never any problems with communication.
Literally recently, all negotiations took place with the leaders of the key NATO states and with the leadership of the two applicant states. Working moments will usually be worked out. This is a simple process within the framework of protecting Turkish national interests. And this should be a lesson for us too.
Each state is obliged to protect its own interests. If for this it is necessary to resist others, then this must be done. Therefore, no matter what Europeans try to impose something on us, we need to continue to bend our line, as the Turks do.
Therefore, the meeting of the two ministers will concern the Turkish price for entry two recruits to NATO. As well as many other issues of British-Turkish bilateral cooperation, which is extremely complex and multifaceted.
Britain is considered by the Turks as one of the key allied states. Even when the British were in the EU, they actively defended Turkey's right to become a member of the European Union.
I once read Johnson's book Dreaming of Rome. In the preface, he reproached the Europeans for the “carrot and stick” policy in the context of providing Ankara with a European perspective. They gave the status of a candidate, but for many years nothing more came of this status.
In fact, it really worked out. And a lot. We are just used to looking at the result, not the process. No one ever takes into account that in the process you can also get certain intermediate results for yourself.
Why are we building, for example, our way to the European Union? To make our lives better. For the state to be stronger, so that it can defend its positions and be able to increase its own weight in the world in a certain way.
So, Turkey, having taken into service from the first years of Erdogan's tenure, while still in the post of prime minister, the theme of the European Union, integration into the EU, has achieved a lot. Because the reforms that have been carried out and continue to be implemented to this day are aimed at bringing Ankara as close as possible to, let's say, the Western world.
This is not about the EU or any other European structures specifically. But, being a member of NATO and carrying out reforms in the vein of the EU, such as the introduction of relevant standards, legislation, integration into the domestic market, the Customs Union. Plus, receiving assistance from the EU directly within the framework of various specialized programs that we still only dream of.
Although we, for example, we have a visa-free regime, while Turkey – No. However, many of these assistance programs work quite effectively. They made it possible to integrate, say, the education system or the approach to conducting international relations into European ones, and quite close cooperation is taking place on this basis.
Just at some point, some political barriers arose that did not allow Turkey to complete its European integration. Cyprus and France are responsible for the emergence of political barriers.
Vasily, you recalled that during the meeting of the two heads of defense departments, not only the issues of membership of Finns and Swedes in NATO were discussed, but and a number of other aspects. Can you lift the veil of secrecy behind which they are hidden from the naked eye?
Look, Bohdan, from the point of view of Ukraine's interests, this meeting is not even more important. We should be more interested in the next meeting in the Rammstein format. The issue of intensifying the provision of assistance to Ukraine will be considered there.
I believe that the first item on the agenda of negotiations between NATO member countries is a war on our soil, countering Russian aggression by helping us. Turkey, like Great Britain, shares the position that this war is absolutely unfair, inadequate in relation to the current situation, and Russia, which is an aggressor country, must be held accountable.
As for purely bilateral British-Turkish contacts at the level of the heads of the Ministry of Defense, the first issue will be countering Russian aggression, the second will be NATO expansion, and the third will be military-technical cooperation and naval interaction in the region. In addition, the issue of the Middle East will be raised. Since the situation in Syria remains tense to this day. Turkey continues its fight against terrorists attacking its territory. We are talking about the so-called PKK (Workers' Party of Kurds – Channel 24).
The operation continues on the territory of Northern Iraq. That is, the range of issues is very wide, but, of course, that the parties have not yet outlined it to the end, adhering to the previously agreed agenda.
Agreements between Turkey and the United States
What did Blinken and Cavusoglu agree on at a meeting in New York on May 18?
The level of interaction between the US and Turkey is extremely high. They have a rather strongly integrated military-industrial complex, issues of political interaction. However, there are certain problems. Blinken and Cavusoglu were dealing with them right now. We have already touched on some of these problems in our conversation earlier.
In addition to discussing NATO expansion, there is also the issue of activating the so-called strategic interaction mechanism, which was launched by Presidents Biden and Erdogan a little earlier, and now it is being filled with specific areas on which the heads of various departments are consulting among themselves.
I am convinced that issues related to energy security are just as important. Since the ways of supplying energy resources in the region as a whole are being reviewed. Considering Turkey's dependence on Russia at the level of 50% of Russian gas consumption. Let's not forget about Russian oil.
Pluses of the issue related to interaction in the Mediterranean region. We are talking about certain contradictions that exist between Turkey and Greece. Given that these are two key US partners in the region, Washington has to work hard to reconcile its two key allies here.
Turkey is dependent on Russian gas/Photo by Getty Images
The consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine
How the war launched by Russia against our country affected it economic cooperation with Turkey?
The Russian market is one of the most important for Ankara. Certain trends should be noted here. First of all, we are talking about the supply of grain, sunflower oil, metal and a large flow of tourists. Before the open war, more than 4 million tourists came to Turkish resorts from Russia annually before the open war.
The other side of the coin is that Russia, like Ukraine, is a large market for Turkish goods. So the interest remains.
With the outbreak of the war, Turkey took a clear position in support of Ukraine. What we see and interpret as balancing is not really what it seems. The majority of Turkish society – approximately 78 – 79% consider the war unfair, admire our heroism and how we set an example for other countries.
In the eyes of the Turks, our struggle looks akin to the struggle that the Turks themselves once waged under leadership of Kemal Atatürk for Turkish independence against the Entente countries.
On the Turkish side, we see a desire to assist in resolving this conflict in our favor. And besides, there are some things that we can’t talk about publicly, but everyone understands them. Of course, it is not easy for anyone to work with Russia now. All this is due to Western sanctions. A firm wishing to cooperate with Russia must beware of falling into secondary or primary sanctions.
We constantly draw the attention of the Turks to this. So that they think three times before doing anything. Another common point of cooperation is energy. About 50% of gas to the Republic of Turkey comes from the Russian Federation. Accordingly, this forces the Turks not to celebrate politically all their visions and wishes, but to take a more balanced position.
The third is the issue of building a nuclear power plant worth several billion dollars in southern Turkey. The construction is carried out by Rosatom. This large investment does not allow curtailing cooperation in this direction.
There is also a great desire to maintain at least some level of Russian tourist presence. For this, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister flew in. We agreed on how to correctly build the logistics of the tourist flow.
We at the embassy are monitoring all this and drawing the attention of our Turkish colleagues. However, they defend their interests. Tourism creates huge employment in the Turkish south. In addition, electoral preferences for the government and the Turkish president depend on this. Therefore, they listen to us, but the final decision is made based on their own reasoning.
Disclose the details of the agreement between Turkey and Kazakhstan on the purchase of Turkish UAVs.
Two weeks ago, the President of Kazakhstan was on a visit to Ankara. The visit was quite extensive. His program included the signing of several interstate agreements. One of them was an agreement on the supply of ANKA UAVs. This is an attack drone produced by the state-owned company TUSAŞ here in Ankara. The Turks want to expand their trade relations in this direction.This single-engine UAV is one of the latest developments of the Turkish state holding. This is a very serious competitor for the Western market of unmanned aerial vehicles. And Kazakhstan will become a test site for testing it.
