Putin's Real Goal in Mongolia and What the Consequences Will Be: An Interview with Podolyak Ekaterina Solyar Oksana Kharkovska Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia on September 2, where he should have been arrested as an international criminal, but no one did. This allowed the Russian dictator to carry out an information operation. Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak in In an exclusive interview with Channel 24, explained that the purpose of the visit to Mongolia was to wipe the ICC's reputation and its warrants. Read more about the consequences of Putin's visit and what will force Russia to change its tactics in the article below. Analysts have calculated that Russia attacks civilians rather than military targets with 3 out of 4 missiles. The aggressor country has been carrying out missile and drone strikes on infrastructure and rear cities for 2.5 years. Because of which, in particular, today is the Day of Mourning in Lviv, and 3 days in Poltava. This is a trend that they are either trying to intimidate, or will continue to follow? How do you see it? I have already said more than once that they have changed their missile tactics. That is, they are absolutely openly striking the center of this or that large settlement. They are striking educational and medical institutions, large residential buildings. And they are not disguising this, but doing it absolutely deliberately. Earlier, they tried to disguise something somewhere, saying, they say, they were striking “military infrastructure facilities”. I am leaving out the fact that, in general, any strike by Russia on Ukraine is already a crime. Why? This is an act of aggression. That is, the beginning of the war is the very first crime, and all other actions of Russia on the territory of Ukraine are a continuation of this crime. That is why they cannot even hit military targets. I find it strange to hear this from one or another partner who says: “This is a war, military targets are legal.” No, there are no legal targets for Russia, because it is an aggressor country, this is legally, clearly and structurally stated. But starting from Friday (August 30 – 24 Kanal), they have been demonstratively hitting the civilian population. The key tasks that they have set for themselves are to shock not only Ukraine, but also our partners, so that they force us to sit down at the negotiating table and admit that Russia is not losing this war. Russia will continue to wage this war precisely through psycho-emotional attempts to influence us and our partners. They will simply not disguise anything anymore. And what do they need to disguise? It turned out that international law and institutions do not work, and nothing works at all. As soon as they sit down at the negotiating table, not entirely on their terms, but at least on some of them, they will consider that they have not lost this war. Accordingly, there will be no punishment for crimes – missile and drone attacks and the like. Consequences of the tragic attack on Lviv on September 4/Irina Uzlova, Channel 24 Mongolia has clearly shown that no warrants work. Putin did this deliberately. There are no economic needs for Russia there. Of course, Mongolia's energy sector is completely dependent on Russia due to the country's geographic location. However, there was no need to come and sign anything. Nothing was signed there, no documents. Putin needed this trip to a country that ratified the Rome Statute only to show all his criminals, his entourage, that all the warrants issued against them in international jurisdiction are meaningless and will have no effect. The same is true today – they are firing missiles and that? Will our partners and their society understand the statistics that 3 out of 4 missiles are deliberately aimed at a civilian target? No, they will close their eyes, they will not look at it. They will definitely turn away from it, they will hide their heads in the sand. They will definitely say, like, “these are statistics, but let's talk about other things,” because when you look at these statistics, you have to make certain decisions for yourself: The problem with the Russian missile downing index is the shortage of anti-missiles. That is, they are supplied to us, but not at the speed and quantity we would like. Partners must accept these decisions and stop using the mythical word, I don’t even know how they pronounce it, escalation. If a missile flies into a hospital, an orphanage, an educational institution or other civilian infrastructure, it means that you must provide every opportunity to protect people. It feels like international institutions, in particular the ISS, NATO and the IAEA, were created for some ideal world. But as it turns out, Putin has shown that the world is not ideal. You say that you must adhere to these rules, but we do not live by them. What will happen if you do not adhere to them?? The world says that no one prepared for this, they thought that everyone would profess these norms. This is a concept of voluntary compliance with certain provisions of international law. That is, you are ready to comply with them? You do. If you violated something and are ready to be voluntarily punished? You will be punished. You are not ready? You will not be punished. As for the UN, there is no United Nations, and it does not resolve issues. This is, let's say, a platform for discussions that have no consequences. And in order to collect huge donations that can be spent on strange programs that lead to even greater escalations. I don't even want to delve into history. There are many examples, wars. For example, what is the genocide in Rwanda worth. We remember what catastrophic consequences there were for the humanistic era, the conclusions from which have not yet been summed up. That is, the UN does not have the resources and instruments of influence. In my opinion, if a country that is a permanent member of the UN Security Council violates the key articles on the basis of which this organization was created, but at the same time its membership is not suspended at least until the moment when Russia's aggression is stopped, this indicates that such an organization does not exist. These are illusions. But there are many people who like to live in this illusion and they make money on it. Do not forget that you can build your career there and get huge incomes if you head this or that direction. Accordingly, you can behave in a status-conscious manner and the like. We also see an absolute absence of other international institutions. I have already said that there is no ICC and that's it. That is, we hoped that the warrant would have to play the function of a deterrent, but no. And this is no longer about Putin, but about his entourage. It is clear what will happen to him. Even his entourage understands that no matter what, he is the author of this war and will be written into history as the most bloody dictator. The warrants were not only against Maria Lvova-Belova (the Commissioner for Children's Rights under the President of Russia – Channel 24) and Putin. There are already dozens of warrants against those who give orders to shell the territory of Ukraine. They are talking about the leaders of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Putin has clearly shown that there is no ICC. If you want to come voluntarily and do something, then yes, if not, then no. All these orders are irrelevant. Moreover, Putin today says that he will continue the genocide of Ukrainians. Putin and the President of Mongolia/Getty Images We need to talk about this openly. Will it affect global communities? Yes. If we keep repeating these things, it will affect. Whatever the case, our partners are giving us weapons, certain instruments for waging war. I would like them to make a fundamental decision, a key one, on which much depends. Which? Russia should sit in the dock. I am not talking specifically about Putin or anyone else, but specifically the word “Russia”. The entire country should be held accountable for the crimes they are committing today on the territory of Ukraine. To do this, we need: When Putin flew to Mongolia, the international community practically did not react at all, did not even express deep concern. There were no attempts to implement the ICC warrant, there were no attempts to warn or help with the arrest. Mongolia also did not ask for help to carry out the arrest, because due to its location it could not deliver Putin. In the end, they invited Putin. Mongolia, as a sovereign state, has the right to do what it considers necessary. Even to sign the Rome Statute and not to comply with its provisions. It is strange, but legally they have the right to do this. The question is different. If Mongolia was focused on the dominance of law in the world, it would have simply warned the subject Putin that he cannot come to Mongolian territory while there is a valid ICC warrant, because the country is a signatory to the Rome Statute, and that's it. I don't think they would have suffered anything there, that any contracts would have been torn up and the like. But it was a conscious decision that gave Putin the opportunity to carry out the information operation that he carried out. Once again, the key element of this operation is the final zeroing of the ICC's reputation. The ICC is no more an institution for Russia. All those orders that were issued to other citizens of Russia who in one way or another participated in the genocide against the civilian population of Ukraine were reset. There are more than two dozen warrants against high-level Russian citizens. All of this has been reset, and there is no point anymore. Therefore, if we, for example, refer somewhere else to the fact that there is an ICC decision that requires the detention of this or that official, this will rather cause a “meme” reaction in Russia. This institution no longer exists for Russia. Moreover, they understand that as soon as we sit down at the negotiating table on such preliminary Russian conditions, this will mean that no one will be held accountable for large-scale crimes. All this tragedy that Ukraine has been going through for more than two and a half years will have no retribution, no legal satisfaction, and no repentance. Moreover, Russia will only ingrain in itself the idea that it has the right to behave this way with the countries that surround Russia along the perimeter. That they have the right to enter foreign territory at any time, give their people the opportunity to rob en masse, rape, do anything they want, and not be held accountable for it. This, again, will preserve the political system that has been built in Russia today: a classic authoritarian system with elements of totalitarianism, with an unconditional Nazi ideology. This is an extremely negative development scenario that we are observing today. The only thing that is holding this entire structure back from being implemented is Ukraine's actions directly on the front line as part of a defensive war, in the Kursk region as part of a counteroffensive war, and the information and diplomatic activity, primarily of the President of Ukraine, on foreign markets. That is, we do not allow this topic to be closed. Before the Kursk operation, there were a very, very large number of pessimistic, strange to me, analyses in the Western media that “everything is lost.” Allegedly, Russia will press on in any case, it has so many resources that it is impossible to imagine. But it turned out that not as many as they thought. Moreover, a third of their resources are the resources of countries under sanctions. I really “like” this sanctions regime for North Korea and Iran. It turned out that the only sectors of the economy that are actively developing there are military ones. That is, the sanctions work “super.” The Kursk operation broke all this. Today we still have such cautious optimism that it is possible to bring this war to a just end, but steps are needed. What steps? There is no need to despair when we say that Western institutions do not work. We just need to continue working directly. Today, the media field and social networks allow us to work as directly as possible with public opinion in different countries, explaining to them that it cannot be the way Russia is doing in Ukraine. Putin in Mongolia/Getty Images Putin, who has been shouting for the last month that there will be no more negotiations, especially after the start of the Kursk operation, recently said that China, India and Brazil could become mediators in negotiations to end the war. What is your opinion on this matter?? First and foremost: there is no point in listening to the situational statements of Putin, Lavrov and Peskov. Everything they say will not correspond to the final points that will be made in this war. These are elements of the kind of primitive propaganda information campaign that Russia always wages. They are ready to sit down at the negotiating table at any moment, because they understand that they will not be able to put the squeeze on Ukraine, but they need to freeze the conflict in order not to answer for the mass crimes they have committed. They understand this perfectly well, and therefore are ready to accept the conditions for an immediate ceasefire and freezing of the conflict at any moment. After that, they will behave at the negotiating table accordingly. That is, they will start to be impudent, as they always do. There is only one way to conduct effective negotiations with Russia. It needs to be significantly scared, limited in resources, and, accordingly, understand that further on the war will develop more according to the counter-scenario. Not at all according to the scenario that they themselves have planned. That's why they frankly want 4 things today: This is why Russia needs an operational pause. This will be a complete reformatting of the economy for the military, holding anti-corruption measures specifically in the military sector of the economy. Already 11 generals are under suspicion, another 20 generals will be. In addition, Russia will commit a huge number of terrorist acts on the territory of Europe. Europe will become chaotic, and Russia will invest in street protests and other terrorist manifestations. We will also see a completely different level of Russian propaganda, they will make adjustments there and, again, will try to dominate the information space. Moreover, there are many who want to make money on Russia. We can expect that some countries will be added to the Russian propaganda platform. That's what we will have. At the same time, no one will allow Ukraine to live, considering that we humiliated Russia. Let's talk about this openly, because all these “blitzkrieg intentions” that have been going on for 2.5 years have led to a total, simply impossible in a historical sense, zeroing out of all types of Russia's reputation. Nobody will forgive Ukraine for this, and therefore you and I will have extremely difficult years that will lead to the death of the Ukrainian state as such. Therefore, to be honest, I do not quite understand what subject Putin is counting on when he says that he wants someone to conduct negotiations on his terms and arrange them exclusively in favor of Russia. Once again, do not listen to Putin, who says that he is ready to conduct negotiations on his own terms. He wanted to exercise ultimate control over the territory of Ukraine. He held negotiations for the first three days. Today, a negotiating platform is being arranged to force Russia to understand the key concepts of international law, responsibility for war crimes and respect for the sovereignty and subjectivity of other countries. Russia is not even the Soviet Union. This is a primitive, technologically backward country with a large pile of, unfortunately, military resources that have been accumulated over decades and which they are trying to implement today. You say that Putin needs a pause on the battlefield to recuperate. Forbes writes that last weekend Russia suffered its heaviest losses during the war – 180 units of equipment per day. On September 1, one-day losses exceeded the daily average by 10 times. Analysts say that Russia will not be able to capture Pokrovsk this way, because it does not have such an offensive tempo. What is your opinion? Of course, it is better to have the military, representatives of the General Staff, and the operational command of the Donetsk direction comment here. They clearly understand what is happening from the operational and tactical point of view today on the front line. But still, I have cautious optimism about both the defensive operations and the counteroffensive operations that Ukraine is conducting. Russia has concentrated its total resource advantage in the Donetsk direction, is trying to implement its initiative there, and is suffering colossal losses. Our General Staff understands this, so they are doing everything necessary, taking into account the residual deficit. We must not forget that there is a certain residual deficit in terms of shells, missiles, and armored vehicles in Ukraine. It would be desirable for the partners to decide for themselves that the war can only be on parity, taking into account who we are fighting with. Everything that is happening in the Kursk region, except for the political goals that have already been achieved, continues to yield positive results. But there are also military, operational and tactical goals. Of course, all this will have a significant impact on the front line, affect the amount of resources that Russia has, in particular, in the Donetsk direction and force the enemy to change tactics there. With the Kursk operation, the front line has increased significantly, which is negative for Russia. In order to somehow restore the initiative, certain actions are needed in the Kursk direction, and in order to wage an effective defensive war in the Kursk direction, it is necessary to remove the most combat-ready units, partly from the Donetsk direction. That is, all this will have significant consequences. Both the events in the Donetsk direction and the events in the Kursk direction clearly indicate that Ukraine is not losing its chances, using them, fully understanding the state it is in in terms of resources. Of course, Ukraine periodically seizes the initiative. You cannot fight only if you respond to the opponent's initiative actions. That is, you cannot fight only in the Donetsk direction, responding to Russia's actions. You must build an effective defense, but at the same time you can effectively use other directions to create danger in different directions for Russia itself. Ukraine is succeeding in all this. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting a successful operation in the Kursk region/Getty Images Does Russia still have the strength to continue the offensive on Donetsk? Yes, they do. Can they carry out some mobilization activities? Yes, they do. Is it expensive? Yes, much more expensive than a year ago. We understand that federal and local budgets invest 2-4 million rubles per head. These heads go in one direction: they come to Ukraine and never come back. That is, 2-4 million rubles, and yesterday it was 200-400 thousand rubles. You see what inflation is. Can Russia buy these heads by the ton? No, because there is an understanding after 2.5 years that the war is not going according to Putin's scenario in Russia itself. Yes, they are ready to shout for Ukrainians to be killed, but at the same time they understand that this is a one-way street. There is a certain number of people who are ready to go to this “scene”, but there are not very many of them. Ukraine's effective actions in the Kursk region, transferring the war to Russian territory, give Russians an understanding that this war will have a completely different final form than they thought at the beginning. Finally, the key point. We are moving on to the concept of strikes on Russian territory. The ground operation in the Kursk region is a borderland. That is, a lot is happening in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, but it does not affect the opinions of people who live in the Moscow and Chelyabinsk regions and so on. They do not care. What is not indifferent? It is not indifferent – this is when the war is going on nearby, when you experience such large-scale fear. To do this, it is necessary not to conduct a ground operation, for example, in the Chelyabinsk region, but you can go there systematically with a large number of missiles. Then the Russians will understand that the war is nearby, perceive it completely differently – not through television, but through their window. Then they will create a different social space, there will be a completely different psycho-emotional component of today's Russia. And then we will simultaneously see Russia's losses along the front line, Ukraine's counterattacks, massive missile strikes on Russian territory, economic losses, losses in people's income. All of this will have a significant impact. And most importantly, it will destroy the key myth that is still based in Russia, that Putin knows something about this life. Read the second part of the interview with Mikhail Podolyak soon on the 24 Channel website.About the terrible shelling of Poltava and Lviv
Did Putin sign important documents in Mongolia
Why international institutions do not work
Consequences of Putin's trip to Mongolia
What Putin wants most now
What will make Russia change its tactics
Putin's Real Goal in Mongolia and What Will Be the Consequences: Interview with Podolyak
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