Putin's nightmare: an American general predicted Russia's defeat in a brutal war with Ukraine/Channel 24 site collage
The United States and allies continue to believe in Ukraine, and our fears about the reaction of the American public to a protracted war or arms transfers are unfounded. So says Iraq and Afghanistan veteran and retired General Mark Arnold.
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In an exclusive interview for Channel 24, he spoke about scenarios for the end of the war, the beginning of the end of the Putin regime, and offered a breakthrough opportunity to defeat Russia quickly, starting a new era in the development of the Ukrainian army and NATO.
Advice to Ukrainians
I'll start with general questions. Based on your experience, what features of the Russian military campaign should Ukrainians pay attention to?
My experience is 39 years in the US Army, more precisely, in the US Special Operations Forces. I am a retired brigadier general. I'm sure the Ukrainians are going through the worst, harshest, and roughest military campaign since the end of World War II.
And speaking of what to focus on, I would say this : Ukrainian citizens living near the front line must evacuate to safer areas until the invader is defeated.
If we analyze military actions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already conducting “deep” battles, which are a necessary and important step towards a great victory. If we talk more about “deep combat” – it means an attack on Russian lines and command centers along the entire front line and border with Russia.
Mark Arnold advised Ukrainians in the occupation to urgently evacuate/Photo provided by the interlocutor
But how can we influence the situation in the near future? People are dying now, for example, there is no time to wait for the delivery of weapons.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not need advice, they know what to do. As I said, modern weapons from the allies help to destroy such important targets as oil depots, ammunition depots, etc.
You know that we can operate only on the territory of Ukraine. This is one of the conditions for the supply of weapons. But there is another nuance that I would like to draw attention to. Russia wants to “erase” Ukraine from the map of the world. Therefore, there are only two options for ending this war: either Ukraine will be absorbed by Russia, or Ukraine will win and Russia will be forced to comply with the legitimate demands of Ukraine and the international community. Which option will the Western establishment choose, and what exactly should the West do to achieve this?
Western governments have already shown which path they have chosen. They decided to help Ukraine with weapons. Ukraine must win this war in order to push back Russia from the territory of Ukraine.
How to accelerate the victory of Ukraine
But is it still possible to speed up the process? For there are countries that historically understand the essence of Russia (the Baltic countries, Poland, Moldova, other countries occupied by the USSR). On the contrary, we have, for example, Germany, where discussions are ongoing due to rising prices and the energy crisis.
Germany, for example, had many discussions on gas supplies, but the West assured them that Europe will cope. Perhaps there are politicians who talk about “freezing” the war, stopping the armament process, and so on. My point is that these opinions are not the basis of politics in the West.
I ask Ukrainians not to pay much attention to these statements. A temporary ceasefire will not change anything. Russia will not stop until it defeats Ukraine. Yes, there are a few politicians who promote these views, but senior politicians and leaders in the West know the truth. That any success Russia gains as a result of aggression will only lead to more problems and destabilize governments in the US, Britain, France, Germany.
It could start with slow, unconventional actions like cyberattacks, information operations, and then Russia could try to create civil wars in Western countries. The motivation to prevent such scenarios will force the West to supply weapons and support the economy of Ukraine.
According to the expert, Russia will not stop on its own/Photo provided by the interlocutor
But back to your experience. One Ukrainian lawyer born there and fighting for Ukraine (Masi Nayem) once said that the USSR could not stand the war in Afghanistan and collapsed, and the same fate could await Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine. How do you like this scenario and do you believe that Russia has drawn any conclusions?
They sure did. And Putin too. And I think that Putin will lose the war against Ukraine and he will be removed from power, reforms will begin. Putin started this war to maintain his political influence. That was his primary goal.
When a dictator goes to war, he mobilizes propaganda and his popularity grows. Putin's support collapses when he loses the war. Then he will lose the support of the oligarchs. Because Putin continues the war. Even if there is a ceasefire, it will be a temporary measure. Putin does not want to give Ukraine time to transform the army with the help of modern Western weapons and exercises from NATO specialists.
Putin is losing the war against Ukraine, Mark Arnold is sure/Photo by Getty Images
Even if there is a temporary ceasefire, it is only so that Putin can reorganize the army or make a rotation. But it won't last long and he won't give Ukraine time to rearm.
But do you think that the problem is only in Putin? Because his environment is also corrupt. And even with our dreams of his death and all the news about his illness, it will not be easy for Russia to get out of this imperial history.
I don't think that will happen. It seems that Putin's security forces are even stronger than the Russian army. But I have already mentioned the role of the oligarchs and the scenario for Ukraine's victory. And I believe that the rich Russians have a plan to replace Putin.
The level of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and joining NATO
After the war, the Ukrainian army will be one of the most powerful in Europe and the first on the continent in terms of combat training. Shouldn't we now look to the future and build a concept of security in the region? And what role could Ukraine play?
Yes. After winning the war, Ukraine should join NATO. And even if the war continues, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already transforming from the Soviet system into an army with modern weapons. And this is the way to a free and democratic Ukraine. And this is Putin's worst nightmare.
I hope this happens. But continuing the topic of allies, what is the current mood in the US? After all, we hear reports that some politicians are already trying to raise issues of corruption and reforms in Ukraine, trying to earn points before the midterm elections in the fall.
Of course, there are politicians who say such things, just like in any other country. But they are not key leaders. Most US politicians and most citizens deeply sympathize with the suffering that Ukraine is going through. It hasn't changed in these 5 months. Yes, there were political discussions on various points, it always happens during the election race.
Support for Ukraine
As a citizen, do you still observe the same support for Ukraine ?
I can give an example from my surroundings – Ukrainian flags hang on the street where I live. I see the support of Americans at the rallies, and I hear these words of support in daily conversations. Most Ukrainian politicians and citizens support Ukraine.
I ask because we are afraid that we are losing attention. We see that on the covers of important media and in the daily news, the topic of Ukraine is raised by other challenges…
But isn't that what we're doing now? We draw the attention of the public. Trust me, there is deep sympathy. The real risk is a long war in Ukraine. I served in Afghanistan, in Iraq, so I know what I'm talking about. Yes, the Americans supported the campaigns at key stages, but there are nuances everywhere. The US and the West must prevent a protracted war. We need to finish it in the coming months.
Yes, but more weapons are needed for this… Could NATO have problems with the number of multiple rocket launchers? Or is there some kind of politics behind it? If this is the position of politicians, what is it aimed at?
Firstly, I see the strategic transformation of NATO during these months. You see all this in the news, say, the position on Sweden and Finland.
NATO has stated that Russia is the primary threat. NATO members began to spend more on defense and armaments. The US and partners have already provided a lot of weapons to Ukraine. And this is caused not only by the needs of Kyiv, but also by the need to protect the countries of the West from aggression. Our industry is not on a wartime level. The defense industry in the EU and the US still operates according to the laws of peacetime.
But I would like to touch on one more topic. The type of weapons that are currently being supplied to Ukraine is an issue with which I do not fully agree. Ukraine needs more weapons to help defeat Russia. And the list of supplies should include reconnaissance and strike UAVs – for example, the MQ-9 Reaper. And more HIMARS systems to attack on the border and on the territory of the occupied Crimea. I believe that at some point the US will supply fighter jets to Ukraine and provide pilot training.
Yes, we are already seeing the progress HIMARS brings. As for drones, how can we ensure such supplies?
It requires a special agreement with the United States and their consent to the supply. The US defends the very technology of their production. And perhaps that is why they have not yet been provided to Ukraine. But this is an important part of the arsenal for victory.
But I can say more. A few weeks ago I wrote an article for USA Today. I spoke about my views on what the US and other countries should do to quickly end the war, so that it does not turn into a long and exhausting battle, in which the West will gradually begin to lose interest.
I wrote that the Armed Forces of Ukraine already changed the course of the war. This is the first step to victory. The courage that the military shows every day, it also changes the course of the war. rRussia is gradually trying to reduce Ukraine to ashes, as we saw in Mariupol.
In my opinion, the fastest way to end this war is to involve the command of the air forces and help the air forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to destroy the Russian ground troops. It will take time to form an air coalition, the Ukrainian forces will need time to train, but this will cut off the Russians from supplies and communication with the command in Russia. And this will be the beginning of the end of the war.
Yes, many are afraid of a retaliatory nuclear strike, but I believe that even such a threat should not serve as a protective shield for Russia. These are the opinions I described in the article. And I received a lot of positive feedback and messages from Americans with words of support.
