Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has no interest in ending the war against Ukraine, so US peace proposals have no chance. A turning point in the war is possible if the West acts more decisively.
In an article for Foreign Affairs, British historian and war scholar Lawrence Freedman, an emeritus professor at King's College London, examines the logic behind Russia's protracted aggression and the prospects for stopping it.
Putin's Eternal War and Trump's Futile Efforts
In his view, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a typical example of a “forever war” – a protracted, inconclusive conflict that was supposed to be a quick operation. To end such a war, both sides must revise their goals to be more realistic.
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“But this becomes more difficult as the war drags on, since the aggressor now also seeks to avoid humiliating defeat and the admission that the assumptions underlying the war were wrong from the start,” Friedman writes.
Not only was the Kremlin’s plan to “capture Kyiv in three days” unrealistic, but also the diplomatic initiatives of US President Donald Trump, the author notes.
“Like Putin in 2022, Trump in January 2025 believed that he could quickly end the war,” Friedman recalls.
However, the reality turned out to be more complicated: the war has not stopped, and now it is a test even for Trump himself.
“While the Kremlin was far from keeping its demands a secret, Trump believed that Russia would be satisfied with his proposal for an immediate ceasefire, de facto control over the occupied territories, and a denial of Ukraine’s accession to NATO,” the article says.
According to Friedman, Trump believed he was offering Putin a good deal, but Putin still wouldn't accept it.
“If Putin wanted to find a way to get his country out of the war with minimal humiliation, then Trump’s offer was as generous as it is possible for a US president to be,” he states.
Putin is confident that he can win the war
According to the researcher, there are several reasons for the Russian president’s resistance.
“First of all, there is no more important issue for him than Ukraine,” Friedman notes.
Putin is keen to make Ukraine's dependence on Russia part of his legacy. He is convinced that the war can be won, despite the army's modest advances over the past year and a half.
The Russian dictator also considers the current front line unacceptable – the captured territories are economically destroyed, and the long border will have to be constantly defended.
If the fighting stops without achieving his political goals, Putin will look defeated. This will anger the ultra-nationalists whose sentiments he has cultivated.
“Many would start asking: Was it worth it?” and reflecting on the failures of the Russian leadership,” the expert notes.
The Russian president also risks losing face in front of his allies – China, Iran, North Korea – and the countries of the global South.
Moreover, Western sanctions are unlikely to be lifted completely, even if Trump wants them to be. The EU and the UK are likely to resist.
This is why the Kremlin is hoping for a weakening of US support for Ukraine rather than fearing Washington’s “peace proposals.”
How Ukraine can survive and what can change the situation
Ukraine now believes that it has reached the limit of concessions it is prepared to make to end the fire, Friedman notes. According to him, official Kyiv is effectively admitting that it is unlikely to regain control over the Russian-occupied territories in the near future, and also understands that joining NATO remains unlikely.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government is convinced that its troops are still capable of holding the line and continuing the fighting if a ceasefire does not occur in the near future.
Russian troops have still not taken even those cities whose fall was considered inevitable last summer.
“They are currently exerting maximum pressure, but even if Kyiv is forced to cede large territories, Ukrainian troops can force Russia to pay an extremely high price for every kilometer they conquer,” the expert notes.
He admits that Ukraine needs a larger mobilization, but the situation is far from hopeless, especially given that European support must increase and the continent’s own defense industry is already producing a significant part of what is needed at the front.
Although the pace of Russian advancement has increased recently, Russia still does not have enough speed to radically change the situation on the ground, the author emphasizes.
Russia has stepped up missile and drone attacks, but “as often happens in strategic bombing campaigns,” local communities adapt over time and learn to cope with new threats.
“The people of Ukraine have already lived through three winters of energy shortages, but they continue to resist. They know their likely fate if they fall under Moscow's rule,” Friedman notes.
So, for the war in Ukraine to end through negotiations, Putin must realize not only that his political ambitions are unrealistic, but also that the failure of the agreement will lead to a deterioration in Russia's position over time.
“It’s far from obvious yet,” Friedman sums up.
Russia is using the Soviet style of warfare
Speaking about what could change the course of events in Ukraine's favor, he points out that Moscow should be concerned about the increasing pace of Ukrainian attacks on various military and economic targets on Russian territory, such as Operation Spider's Web.
At the same time, such strikes, although “inconvenient” and destructive for Russia, are unlikely to change the Kremlin’s military strategy in themselves, Friedman suggests.
They also have not fundamentally changed the dynamics of fighting on the front lines, although attacks on logistics hubs, weapons depots and command centres “certainly help” this, the article says.
The most important task, according to Friedman, is to convince Moscow that its goals in Ukraine are unrealistic. One of the most difficult issues in this context is human resources, which “remain a serious problem for Russia.”
The analyst recalls that Russia continues to use the Soviet style of warfare, the roots of which go back to imperial times – when troops are thrown en masse into enemy positions in the hope that at least some will break through. At the same time, the Kremlin has so far managed to staff the troops without declaring a full-scale mobilization, partly thanks to high payments.
“The Russian military machine is like the mining industry, which is a profitable business until the resources are exhausted,” Friedman notes. “But the resources will run out sooner or later. There are already doubts about how much more labor the state can “acquire” and at what cost.
The question remains whether the Kremlin will have to resort to tougher methods at some point.
Economic problems of Russia
An even bigger problem for Putin is the ability of the Russian economy to sustain the current level of military effort. Since late 2024, there have been signs that Russia's militarized economy is starting to overheat, with labor shortages, high inflation, and rising interest rates becoming serious obstacles to investment, the analyst reminds.
— Putin probably still believes that Ukraine will fall first, but he has always underestimated Ukraine’s resilience and determination. Perhaps the tipping point will come when Moscow realizes the utter futility of this war, and the long-term economic damage to Russia begins to outweigh the damage (to Putin – ed.) from recognizing that the war’s political objective is unachievable. Perhaps some future Ukrainian operation will prompt the necessary reassessment (on the part of the Kremlin – ed.), – suggests Lawrence Friedman.
According to him, so far “neither side has a clear path to victory.”
“This is what it means to be in an ‘eternal war.’ No one knows how it will end, and whether a potential peace will not be just a way for Russia to restore its strength under the cover of an unstable ceasefire,” the analyst concludes.
Everything depends “on decisions that still need to be made,” Friedman emphasizes. That is why Ukraine’s Western allies must be realistic about the country’s long-term war needs. For them, the only form of pressure on Putin is to continue efforts to prevent Russia from winning.
